Prediction track record
75% accuracy. 0% guarantee of profit.
Our AI calls Over / Under 1.5 goals correctly 74.9% of the time across 822 settled picks. Every pick is logged before kickoff and scored against the actual result — no cherry-picking, no retroactive editing.
But accuracy is not the same as profitability. A 1.01-odds favourite that wins counts as a hit here — but betting it makes you almost no money. Why CLV beats accuracy as a betting metric →
By market
Different markets have different difficulty. Over/Under 1.5 is structurally the easiest because top-flight football averages 2.7 goals/match — picking "over" wins most of the time. 1X2 is the hardest because a 3-way market with home advantage tops out around 45% by luck alone. We publish all four.
| Market | Picks | Hits | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 822 | 616 | 74.9% |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | 1,054 | 577 | 54.7% |
| Both teams to score | 1,385 | 742 | 53.6% |
| 1X2 (match winner) | 1,412 | 673 | 47.7% |
By confidence threshold
When the model is more confident, it's right more often. This is the calibration test — if accuracy didn't rise with confidence, the model would be just guessing and labelling.
| Model confidence ≥ | Picks | Hits | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3,636 | 2,162 | 59.5% |
| 60% | 1,775 | 1,191 | 67.1% |
| 70% | 843 | 622 | 73.8% |
| 80% | 308 | 235 | 76.3% |
| 85% | 107 | 83 | 77.6% |
Sample composition — read this
- 2,995 picks are backfilled— reconstructed from our historical predictions table. The pick was generated before kickoff (by the same model that produces live picks today), but the public log entry was created in a batch on 2026-06-05. Honest analogy: same answer the model gave at the time, but we're certifying it after the fact.
- 1,678 picks are live-published— logged into a public append-only table the morning of the match, with a kickoff-timestamped insert that we can't edit. These are the credibility-equivalent rows for "we called this ahead of time." The number will grow daily from here.
Recent settled picks
The last 25 picks the model called, with the actual outcome. Hover any row to see the score.
| Match | Pick | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
Piteå W vs Brommapojkarna W Damallsvenskan · 1-2 | BTTS Yes | 52% | |
Piteå W vs Brommapojkarna W Damallsvenskan · 1-2 | Under 2.5 | 54% | |
Piteå W vs Brommapojkarna W Damallsvenskan · 1-2 | Home | 43% | |
Avangard Kursk vs Ryazan Second League - Group 3 · 0-0 | BTTS Yes | 57% | |
Kingsley Westside vs Inglewood United Western Australia State League 1 · 0-1 | Under 2.5 | 63% | |
Adelaide United II vs Adelaide City South Australia NPL · 0-0 | Over 2.5 | 56% | |
Avangard Kursk vs Ryazan Second League - Group 3 · 0-0 | Away | 47% | |
SF Grei vs IF Ready 3. Division - Girone 1 · 3-5 | Away | 52% | |
SF Grei vs IF Ready 3. Division - Girone 1 · 3-5 | BTTS Yes | 78% | |
Kingsley Westside vs Inglewood United Western Australia State League 1 · 0-1 | BTTS No | 54% | |
B36 II vs ÍF II 1. Deild · 0-4 | Home | 36% | |
Adelaide United II vs Adelaide City South Australia NPL · 0-0 | Home | 50% | |
Adelaide United II vs Adelaide City South Australia NPL · 0-0 | BTTS Yes | 59% | |
Kingsley Westside vs Inglewood United Western Australia State League 1 · 0-1 | Draw | 34% | |
B36 II vs ÍF II 1. Deild · 0-4 | BTTS Yes | 55% | |
Sutherland Sharks U20 vs Blacktown City U20 Npl Nsw U20 · 6-1 | BTTS No | 56% | |
Sutherland Sharks U20 vs Blacktown City U20 Npl Nsw U20 · 6-1 | Home | 44% | |
Laagri vs Kuressaare Meistriliiga · 2-3 | BTTS Yes | 55% | |
Laagri vs Kuressaare Meistriliiga · 2-3 | Away | 40% | |
Bulls Academy vs Rydalmere Lions New South Wales NPL 2 · 0-1 | BTTS Yes | 67% | |
Bulls Academy vs Rydalmere Lions New South Wales NPL 2 · 0-1 | Home | 42% | |
Bulls Academy vs Rydalmere Lions New South Wales NPL 2 · 0-1 | Over 2.5 | 65% | |
Cambodia U19 vs Indonesia U19 ASEAN Championship U19 · 0-1 | Home | 50% | |
Cambodia U19 vs Indonesia U19 ASEAN Championship U19 · 0-1 | BTTS Yes | 74% | |
Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Slavia Praha U19 1. Liga U19 · 3-2 | Home | 60% |
Accuracy is one half of the story. CLV is the other.
Even 80%-accurate picks lose money at 1.10 odds. The metric that actually proves edge over the bookmaker is CLV (closing line value). It's where we lead — and what competitor "X% accuracy" claims hide.