- Kick-off
- Venue
- Emirates Stadium, London
Our call: Arsenal win 2–0
Hull's five-man defence will hold for a while, but Noni Madueke against Ryan Giles is where it gets pulled apart.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 5 Nov, 09:41 UTC, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- Arsenal are top of the Premier League on 24 points after nine games, three clear of Manchester City; Hull are 11th on 11.
- Bukayo Saka is injured and Max Dowman is banned; Hull have not won a league game since the end of August.
- Hull will make this awkward for an hour, and Arsenal will still keep a clean sheet.
The story
Arsenal go into this one top of the Premier League, three points clear of Manchester City, after a 1–0 win at Liverpool on Sun 1 Nov. Three days later Mikel Arteta's side came from Prague with a 2–1 win over Slavia in the Champions League, so Hull are their third opponent in seven days.
It has not been a clean fortnight, though. On Tue 27 Oct Arsenal went out of the League Cup on penalties at Fleetwood Town after a 1–1 draw, and Max Dowman was sent off five minutes from the end for kicking out at Harrison Neal. The FA rejected Arsenal's appeal, so Dowman serves a three-match domestic ban, and this is the second game of it. Arteta did not hide his view: "We are not in Disneyland, we are in the Premier League." Bukayo Saka is still out with the thigh injury he picked up at Bayern Munich on Wed 21 Oct, so the right wing belongs to Noni Madueke.
Hull came up through the Championship play-off final at Wembley in May and beat Manchester United 2–0 on the opening weekend, but Sergej Jakirović's side have not won in the league since 29 Aug at Coventry. Hull City are hard to beat rather than hard to stop: the latest of their draws was a 2–2 with Ipswich on Sat 31 Oct, when Tim Iroegbunam and an Oli McBurnie free-kick turned the game round before Ipswich levelled. Jakirović sets his team up in a 5-4-1 without the ball and says that one system gives them stability.
This decides it: Madueke against Ryan Giles on Hull's left. Giles is the wing-back who has to stop Arsenal's right side and still be Hull's outlet going forward. If Madueke keeps him pinned back, Hull's five at the back become seven, and Arsenal get the time on the ball that Hull's shape is built to deny them.
Form
The five latest games we hold. Not shown: the League Cup exit at Fleetwood on 27 Oct, 1–1 and out on penalties.
No win in five: three draws and two defeats.
The games, with scores
| Arsenal | 4 Nov | at Slavia PrahaUCL | W 2–1 |
| 1 Nov | at LiverpoolPL | W 1–0 | |
| 24 Oct | v EvertonPL | W 2–0 | |
| 21 Oct | at Bayern MünchenUCL | D 2–2 | |
| 18 Oct | at Nottingham ForestPL | W 1–0 | |
| Hull City | 31 Oct | v IpswichPL | D 2–2 |
| 25 Oct | v BrentfordPL | D 1–1 | |
| 17 Oct | at FulhamPL | L 0–1 | |
| 11 Oct | v EvertonPL | D 2–2 | |
| 19 Sep | at NewcastlePL | L 1–2 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. PL = Premier League, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 4 Nov 2026.
Team news
Checked Thu 5 Nov 07:30 UTC: arsenal.com (the Slavia Prague preview, 4 Nov), Sky Sports (Saka, 24 Oct; Jakirović's interview, 25 Oct; Hull 2–2 Ipswich, 31 Oct), the Yorkshire Post (Targett) and, for Dowman's ban, the Express & Star and Al Jazeera (30 Oct). Reported means the club has not yet confirmed it for this match. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Max Dowman has 2 goals in the 9 Arsenal games we hold since 15 Sep, level with Eberechi Eze and Madueke, and is missing from the last XI: he did not start in Prague, and the domestic ban rules him out of this game. With Saka out and Dowman not starting, Eze, Mikel Merino and Madueke played behind Viktor Gyökeres at Slavia.
Hull City 5-3-2 · v Ipswich, 31 Oct
- Tzolakis
- CoyleAjayiEganMendyGiles (key battle)
- StroudSlaterIroegbunam
- McBurnieBelloumi
- Gyökeres
- EzeMerinoMadueke (key battle)
- RiceZubimendi
- HincapiéGabrielKonsaWhite
- Raya
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · at Slavia Praha, 4 Nov
Both last XIs on a pitch
Hull City 5-3-2 · v Ipswich, 31 Oct
- Tzolakis
- CoyleAjayiEganMendyGiles (key battle)
- StroudSlaterIroegbunam
- McBurnieBelloumi
- Gyökeres
- EzeMerinoMadueke (key battle)
- RiceZubimendi
- HincapiéGabrielKonsaWhite
- Raya
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · at Slavia Praha, 4 Nov
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Noni Madueke against Ryan Giles. Madueke started on the right in Prague with Saka out; Giles started at left wing-back against Ipswich, and Targett, who also plays on the left, is injured.
Arsenal
Noni Madueke
Has the right wing to himself while Saka is out and Dowman is banned.
- 2
- goals, 9 Arsenal games held since 15 Sep
Arsenal
Eberechi Eze
Started on the left in Prague and is level with Madueke and Dowman in the games we hold.
- 2
- goals, 9 Arsenal games held since 15 Sep
Hull City
Mohamed Belloumi
Top scorer in Hull City's last ten, and the forward most likely to punish Arsenal on the break.
- 3
- goals, Hull's last 10
Player goals count only where we hold a named scorer: Arsenal's games held since 15 Sep and Hull's last ten, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 4 Nov 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Arsenal 1.9, Hull City 1 (higher is better)
Arsenal scored four at Ipswich and three against Lille; Hull never scored more than two.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Arsenal 1, Hull City 1.2 (lower is better)
Closer than the table suggests, because Arsenal shipped three at Brighton in September.
Wins per game: Arsenal 0.8, Hull City 0.1 (higher is better)
The surprise is not Arsenal's number but Hull's.
Per game, all competitions: Arsenal's 9 games held since 15 Sep, Hull's 10 since 25 Aug. OddsIntel match database, read 4 Nov 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Arsenal win 2–0. Hull will sit in their 5-4-1 and try to make it a long afternoon, and they are good at it. But Arsenal kept clean sheets at Forest, against Everton and at Anfield, their three league games before Prague, and we do not see this Hull side being the one to break that. We expect Madueke to keep Giles busy, and the first goal to come once Hull tire. Belloumi on the break is the threat Arsenal have to watch.
Where this could go wrong. Hull City have scored in 7 of their last 10 games. Arsenal play here three days after Prague, with Saka and Dowman missing. If McBurnie or Belloumi get the first goal, a 1–1 is the likelier miss, the kind of result Hull have made a habit of. The other way, Arsenal scored four at Ipswich and three against Lille in the games we hold, and once Hull have to come out, this could be a much heavier home win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: The Premier League's choice of referee, news on Saka and Saliba, Arteta's and Jakirović's press conferences, and both confirmed team sheets about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 4 Nov 23:40 UTC, so the counts include Arsenal's game at Slavia Prague on 4 Nov and Hull's 2–2 with Ipswich on 31 Oct. Arsenal's League Cup tie at Fleetwood Town on 27 Oct is missing from the games we hold, so every Arsenal count covers the 9 games we hold since 15 Sep. Over those games 2 Arsenal goals have no named scorer in our lists, so each Arsenal player's tally is a minimum. We hold no meeting between the two clubs, so there is no head-to-head. Team news and match details from arsenal.com, Sky Sports, the Yorkshire Post, the Express & Star and Al Jazeera.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Thu 5 Nov, 09:50 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Thu 5 Nov, 09:50 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
0e95a47a1b24065fd859e6138d96f4ca0a3bba81b9cb92ffba0d29afb392c25c
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 35/57
- home win every time
- 27/57