- Kick-off
- Venue
- Mewa Arena, Mainz
Our call: FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Bayern München · Bayern München win
Mainz have to rebuild their back three around Kacper Potulski and Danny da Costa, and Harry Kane is the worst opponent for that.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 4 Nov, 17:41 UTC, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- Bayern are top of the Bundesliga on 18 points, level with Dortmund; Mainz are 9th on 10 after eight games.
- Mainz have lost three in a row and Stefan Posch is banned; Bayern are without Luis Díaz, Ismael Saibari and Serge Gnabry.
- Mainz will score, because they nearly always do, and it still will not be enough.
The story
Mainz go into this one on their worst run of the season. They lost 3–2 at home to Werder Bremen on Sat 24 Oct, went out of the DFB Pokal 2–0 at Bochum on Tue 27 Oct and were 3–0 down at half-time at Elversberg on Fri 30 Oct before losing 4–1. Fischer called it "a mental issue" afterwards and promised only that Mainz would try to do better against Bayern.
It got worse in stoppage time at Elversberg, when Stefan Posch was sent off for a second yellow card. He is banned for this game, so Fischer has to change a defence that has already let in nine goals in three games. Kacper Potulski and Danny da Costa are the two centre-backs who stay; whoever comes in beside them meets Harry Kane at the Mewa Arena on Sat 7 Nov.
Bayern arrive from a 2–0 win at Atlético Madrid on Tue 3 Nov, with Lennart Karl and Konrad Laimer scoring and Kane setting up the second. Aaron Danks is still in charge while Vincent Kompany recovers from his illness, and Bayern have given no date for his return. They are top only on goal difference, 19 to Dortmund's 8, after the 2–2 against Dortmund on Sat 31 Oct, and that game cost them Ismael Saibari and Serge Gnabry.
This decides it: Kane against a Mainz back three without Posch. Bayern have scored in all of their last ten games, and Mainz have conceded in six of theirs. If Potulski, da Costa and the new man keep Kane quiet, Mainz have the goals to make it close; if they don't, Michael Olise is the second problem.
Form
Four defeats in five; the one win was 1–0 at Schalke.
Unbeaten in these five, and two goals or more in every one.
The games, with scores
| FSV Mainz 05 | 30 Oct | at SV ElversbergBL | L 1–4 |
| 27 Oct | at VfL BochumDFB | L 0–2 | |
| 24 Oct | v Werder BremenBL | L 2–3 | |
| 17 Oct | at FC Schalke 04BL | W 1–0 | |
| 10 Oct | v Bayer LeverkusenBL | L 3–4 | |
| Bayern München | 3 Nov | at Atletico MadridUCL | W 2–0 |
| 31 Oct | v Borussia DortmundBL | D 2–2 | |
| 28 Oct | v 1. FC MagdeburgDFB | W 6–1 | |
| 25 Oct | at SC FreiburgBL | W 3–1 | |
| 21 Oct | v ArsenalUCL | D 2–2 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. BL = Bundesliga, DFB = DFB Pokal, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Nov 2026.
Team news
Checked Wed 4 Nov 15:20 UTC: mainz05.de (the Elversberg match report, 31 Oct; Kohr's injury, 31 Aug), Bundesliga.com (matchday 8 team news, 30 Oct; Bayern's injury news, 2 and 3 Nov), fcbayern.com (Díaz's training, 2 Nov; the Dortmund preview, 28 Oct) and kicker (Kohr). Reported means the club has not yet confirmed it for this match. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Benedict Hollerbach, with 2 goals in Mainz's last ten, started on the bench at Elversberg, came on in the second half and scored Mainz's goal in stoppage time; no injury has been reported. With Díaz, Saibari and Gnabry out, Lennart Karl and Olise started in attack with Kane in Madrid.
Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · at Atletico Madrid, 3 Nov
- Neuer
- StanišićUpamecanoTahDavies
- LaimerKimmich
- OliseBischofKarl
- Kane (key battle)
- BeckerTietz
- AmiriNebel
- MweneSanoCaci
- Potulski (key battle)Poschda Costa
- Zentner
FSV Mainz 05 3-3-2-2 · at SV Elversberg, 30 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · at Atletico Madrid, 3 Nov
- Neuer
- StanišićUpamecanoTahDavies
- LaimerKimmich
- OliseBischofKarl
- Kane (key battle)
- BeckerTietz
- AmiriNebel
- MweneSanoCaci
- Potulski (key battle)Poschda Costa
- Zentner
FSV Mainz 05 3-3-2-2 · at SV Elversberg, 30 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Harry Kane against Kacper Potulski. Kane led the line in Madrid and set up Laimer's goal; Potulski is one of two Mainz centre-backs from Elversberg who are sure to be there, and he will have a new defender beside him.
Bayern München
Harry Kane
Joint top scorer in Bayern's last ten with Olise, and close to a new contract, Bundesliga.com reported on Tue 3 Nov.
- 7
- goals, Bayern's last 10
Bayern München
Michael Olise
Started in Madrid and is level with Kane in Bayern's last ten.
- 7
- goals, Bayern's last 10
FSV Mainz 05
Phillip Tietz
Started up front at Elversberg and is the Mainz forward most likely to make Bayern pay.
- 5
- goals, Mainz's last 10
Player goals count only where we hold a named scorer: each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Nov 2026.
Head-to-head
We hold seven meetings since 2023 and show the newest five: Mainz won one, drew one and lost three.
All 5 meetings
Result for FSV Mainz 05. The newest five of seven meetings held since 2023. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Nov 2026.
Mainz have scored five in the last two meetings. The last one in Mainz, on Sat 25 Apr 2026, finished 4–3 to Bayern.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: FSV Mainz 05 20, Bayern München 35 (higher is better)
Bayern scored seven against Union Berlin and six each against Leipzig and Magdeburg.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: FSV Mainz 05 19, Bayern München 13 (lower is better)
Mainz let in nine goals in their last three games alone.
Clean sheets, last ten: FSV Mainz 05 4, Bayern München 2 (higher is better)
Mainz's one surprise: one of their four came in a friendly, but Bayern kept only two.
Last ten games each, all competitions (Mainz's include a friendly). OddsIntel match database, read 3 Nov 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Bayern win 3–1. Bayern scored at least twice in every one of their last ten games, home and away, and Mainz go in with Posch banned and their back three changed. We expect Kane and Olise to find the gaps that Werder Bremen and Elversberg found. Mainz score because they usually do: they scored in eight of their last ten, and Bayern conceded in eight of theirs, so Tietz or Hollerbach can get one at the Mewa Arena.
Where this could go wrong. Bayern drew four of their last ten, two of them on the road at Viking and Augsburg, and they play here four days after a Champions League trip to Madrid, with three attackers out. If Mainz stay in the game for an hour, a 2–2 is the likelier miss, as it was in Munich in Dec 2025. The other way, Mainz have just let in four at Elversberg, and an early Bayern goal could turn this into a much heavier home defeat.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: The DFB's choice of referee, news on Musiala and Díaz, Fischer's and Danks's press conferences, and both confirmed team sheets about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 3 Nov 23:40 UTC, so the counts include Mainz's game at Elversberg on 30 Oct and Bayern's at Atlético Madrid on 3 Nov. Mainz's last ten include a friendly, 3–0 at Waldhof Mannheim on 3 Oct. Over those ten games 3 Mainz goals have no named scorer in our lists, so each Mainz player's tally is a minimum. Team news and match details from mainz05.de, Bundesliga.com, fcbayern.com and kicker.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Wed 4 Nov, 17:50 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Wed 4 Nov, 17:50 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
53751a5045424d5c474dccde4944b76459b222796ee967c56c60792432d1e57c
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 35/57
- home win every time
- 27/57