Stoke City vs Middlesbrough: Will Lankshear meets a Stoke back three without the suspended Maksym Talovierov
By Margus Sellin · · 5 min
Championship · Matchday 10
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
- Kick-off
- Venue
- bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent
Our call: a draw, 1–1
Lankshear against a Stoke back three without Talovierov should bring Middlesbrough a goal, and Stoke's attack should bring one back.
Logged 11 Oct, 12:00 CEST, never edited. We'll mark this call after full time.
In 30 seconds
- Maksym Talovierov is suspended after his red card at Bolton, so Mark Robins has to rebuild his back three.
- Middlesbrough are second and unbeaten in seven league games since losing at Blackburn on Sat 22 Aug.
- Stoke's run is real, but five of its six games were against bottom-half sides, and they lost both their games against sides now in the top five.
The story
Middlesbrough marked their 150th anniversary on Sat 10 Oct with a 1–0 win over Wolves at the Riverside. Will Lankshear headed in Tommy Conway's cross just before the hour, and Kim Hellberg's side went second, two points behind Swansea. Lankshear has 6 of Middlesbrough's 18 goals in their last ten games, a third of what they scored in that time.
Stoke arrive in form too. Mark Robins's side lost their first three league games and have not lost in the league since: five wins and a draw. The latest came at Bolton on Sat 10 Oct too, where they played about 70 minutes with ten men after Maksym Talovierov was sent off for a last-ditch tackle. Lamine Cissé and Ben Wilmot scored in Stoke's first away win at Bolton since 1990, and they are fourth on 16 points, two behind Middlesbrough.
That red card is the problem. Talovierov is suspended, and he played in the middle of the back three that has held the run together. Wilmot and Graham stay, but Robins has to find a third centre-back, and Lankshear is the reason it matters. Stoke have also lost both of their games against the current top five, Swansea at home and Wolves away.
Middlesbrough won on both of their last two visits to Stoke, 3–1 in February 2025 and 2–1 in January 2026. This game is decided by Lankshear against Wilmot and whoever replaces Talovierov beside him.
Form
Latest →
Stoke City
- 10 OctW2–1at BOLCH
- 19 SepW2–1v SHUCH
- 12 SepW2–1at WATCH
- 8 SepD1–1at CARCH
- 5 SepW4–0v CHACH
Three 2–1 wins in a row, each by a single goal.
Middlesbrough
- 10 OctW1–0v WOLCH
- 19 SepD2–2at BIRCH
- 15 SepD2–2v MILCH
- 12 SepW4–3v NORCH
- 8 SepL0–3at CRYLC
The one defeat in these five was in the League Cup, at Crystal Palace.
Latest on the left. CH = Championship, LC = League Cup. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Team news
Stoke City
- OutMaksym Talovierov: suspended after his red card at Bolton on Sat 10 Oct. Stoke lose the middle of their back three.(reported)
- OutAaron Cresswell: a knee injury, on the injury list for this game.(reported)
- OutSvante Ingelsson: a muscle injury, on the injury list for this game. One less option in midfield.(reported)
Middlesbrough
- OutAlfie Jones: a calf injury from the Norwich game; Hellberg said he would not play in the Wolves or Stoke games but is getting closer. Malanda and Phillips started together at centre-back against Wolves without him.(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Sun 11 Oct 11:40 CEST: Sky Sports, Gazette Live (Middlesbrough), PA via the Irish News and the API-Football injury list. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club.
Sam Gallagher, one of Stoke's scorers with 2 goals in their last ten games, was not in the matchday squad at Bolton, and Sky Sports gave no reason. Middlesbrough's main scorers, Lankshear, Amario Cozier-Duberry and Sebastian Berhalter, all started against Wolves.
Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1 · v Wolves, 10 Oct
- Vítek
- BrittainPhillipsMalandaNeto Borges
- MorrisBerhalter
- Cozier-DuberryMcGreeConway
- Lankshear (key battle)
- McGlynnCisséDevenny
- BocatGalbraithSoumaréJohnson
- GrahamTalovierovWilmot (key battle)
- Johansson
Stoke City 3-4-3 · at Bolton, 10 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1 · v Wolves, 10 Oct
- Vítek
- BrittainPhillipsMalandaNeto Borges
- MorrisBerhalter
- Cozier-DuberryMcGreeConway
- Lankshear (key battle)
- McGlynnCisséDevenny
- BocatGalbraithSoumaréJohnson
- GrahamTalovierovWilmot (key battle)
- Johansson
Stoke City 3-4-3 · at Bolton, 10 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Will Lankshear against Ben Wilmot. Lankshear plays alone up front and is fed by Conway and Cozier-Duberry in the three behind him. Wilmot scored at Bolton and is the experienced centre-back left once Talovierov is out. If Wilmot wins the high balls, Stoke can play their own game; if Lankshear gets between him and a new partner, Middlesbrough score.
Middlesbrough
Will Lankshear
Headed the winner against Wolves and is the reason Middlesbrough are second.
- 6
- goals, Middlesbrough's last 10
Stoke City
Ethan Galbraith
Stoke share their goals around, and he scores more of them than anyone else.
- 3
- goals, Stoke's last 10
Middlesbrough
Amario Cozier-Duberry
Starts in the three behind Lankshear and adds goals of his own.
- 2
- goals, Middlesbrough's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
The last five of the ten meetings we hold, back to 2022. Middlesbrough won three; Stoke's one win was 5–0 at the Riverside in the League Cup in 2024.
Result for Stoke City
- 21 Jan 2026Stoke City v MiddlesbroughChampionship, Stoke-on-Trent1–2L
- 30 Sep 2025Middlesbrough v Stoke CityChampionship, Middlesbrough0–0D
- 25 Feb 2025Stoke City v MiddlesbroughChampionship, Stoke-on-Trent1–3L
- 28 Sep 2024Middlesbrough v Stoke CityChampionship, Middlesbrough2–0L
- 27 Aug 2024Middlesbrough v Stoke CityLeague Cup, Middlesbrough0–5W
The last five of the ten meetings we hold, back to 2022. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Stoke City 16.0, Middlesbrough 18.0 (higher is better)
Slightly more for Middlesbrough, from a side that leans on one striker.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Stoke City 14.0, Middlesbrough 15.0 (lower is better)
Neither defence is tight: both concede about a goal and a half a game.
Scored in, last ten: Stoke City 10.0, Middlesbrough 9.0 (higher is better)
The surprise: Stoke have scored in every one, and Middlesbrough's only blank was at Crystal Palace.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have it as a draw, 1–1. Middlesbrough are the better side over the season and Lankshear is the man in form, and a back three missing its middle man is the worst shape to meet him with. But Stoke have scored in each of their last ten games, their goals come from all over the side, and Middlesbrough have kept only two clean sheets in that time. One goal each is where the evidence points.
Where this could go wrong. If Robins's new back three holds Lankshear, Stoke's home form and three straight league wins could carry them through, as they did against Sheffield United. If it does not, Lankshear finds the gap and Middlesbrough win at Stoke for the third visit running. That is the likelier way for our draw to miss, because the Stoke defence is the part we trust least.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table, injuries and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 11 Oct 08:10 UTC; team news and match details from Sky Sports, Gazette Live and PA (via the Irish News).
Our calls so far: 18 right of 21
Right means we called the winner, or the draw, after 90 minutes. 2 of them were the exact score. Every call is scored after full time, misses included.
For comparison, calling the home team every time would have been right 11 of 21.
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