ODDSINTELBeta

How OddsIntel Works

What the model does, what each tier unlocks, and why you can trust the track record.

The Model in One Paragraph

Every morning the model blends a Poisson regression (goals as a statistical process), an XGBoost ensemble (36+ features: form, ELO, H2H, lineups, injuries, rest days), and a third-party prediction cross-check. It then collects 58 signals per match — market movement, team strength, news, context, live data. The final probability is calibrated weekly against actual results so it doesn't drift. Full technical methodology →

From Prediction to Value Bet

A prediction tells you who is most likely to win. A value bet tells you where the bookmakers have underpriced that probability. These are different things.

Step 1 — Free tier

62%

Model says Home wins with 62% probability

Step 2 — Pro tier

1.85 odds

Bookmaker implies 54% probability (1/1.85). You see the full spread across 13 bookmakers.

Step 3 — Elite tier

+8% edge

Model beats market by 8 pp — a value bet. Kelly stake calculated automatically.

What Each Tier Includes

Free

€0/mo

Curious about the product

  • All fixtures from 280+ leagues — daily
  • Live scores (auto-refresh every minute)
  • Best available odds per match (single best across bookmakers)
  • Model predictions: Home / Draw / Away for every match
  • Prediction confidence (statistical probability, 3 levels)
  • Full track record — every prediction, every result, no cherry-picking
  • Star leagues → My Matches personalised feed
  • Personal picks tracker (log & track your own predictions)
  • Match notes — private journal per match
  • Community sentiment voting (what the crowd thinks)
  • 1 free value bet teaser per day
Pro

€4.99/mo

Does own research, wants better data

  • Everything in Free
  • Full odds comparison across 13 bookmakers
  • Pre-match odds movement timeline
  • Team form, H2H, goals stats, standings
  • AI injury & suspension alerts per match
  • Confirmed lineups + formation view
  • Directional model signal — Home lean / Away lean / Even (no raw %)
  • Full match history, not just today
  • Post-match stats: shots, possession, xG
Elite

€14.99/mo

Serious bettor, wants model-backed picks

  • Everything in Pro
  • Exact model probability % per outcome
  • Edge % — how much the model beats each bookmaker
  • Value bets list — every match where edge > threshold today
  • Closing line value (CLV) tracking — the gold standard for +EV betting
  • Natural language explanations: why the model likes this pick
  • Telegram alerts — notified the moment a new value bet is found
Founding member rates — first 500 Pro subscribers lock in €3.99/mo forever. First 200 Elite subscribers lock in €9.99/mo forever. These rates will not be offered again after the cohorts fill.

Symbols & Icons Guide

Here's what every symbol on the matches page means at a glance.

Data Grade

AFull model — XGBoost + Poisson ensemble with rich historical data. Highest confidence predictions.
BStatistical model — Poisson only. Good predictions but less historical depth for this league.
CPrediction-based — limited historical data for this league. Uses API-Football probabilities as baseline.

Match Pulse

⚡High Alert — sharp line movement, bookmaker disagreement, or significant market activity detected. Worth a closer look.
Interesting — moderate signals detected (mild odds shift or some bookmaker divergence).

Most matches (~80%) are "Routine" — no special indicator shown. The pulse only flags the ~15-20% of matches with unusual activity.

League Header

🔥Odds available — at least one match in this league has bookmaker odds data from our 13-bookmaker feed.

Predicted Score

2–1AI predicted most likely scoreline. Rounded from the model's expected goals output. Available for ~40% of matches.

Odds & Movement

2.45Green highlight — best available odds across bookmakers for this selection (Home / Draw / Away).
▲Odds rising — odds have increased vs ~24h ago (less likely according to the market). Pro only.
▼Odds dropping — odds have decreased vs ~24h ago (more likely according to the market). Pro only.
13Bookmaker count — number of bookmakers with odds for this match. More bookmakers = more liquid market.

Form Strip

Last 5 results. Green = Win, Amber = Draw, Red = Loss. Read left-to-right (oldest to most recent).

Signal Teasers

"High bookmaker disagreement"— Plain-English summaries of notable signals. Shown on ~30-40% of matches where something stands out.

Match Status

LIVEMatch is currently in play. Minute shown below. Scores update every 60 seconds.
FTFull time — match is finished.
HTHalf time — match is at the break.
22:00Scheduled kickoff time (your local timezone).

Common Questions

What's the difference between a prediction and a value bet?

A prediction says 'Home is most likely to win at 62%'. A value bet says 'Home is 62% likely but the bookmakers are only pricing it at 54%, so you have an 8% edge'. You can predict correctly and still lose money if you consistently bet at bad odds. Value betting solves that.

What does edge % mean?

Edge = model probability minus bookmaker's implied probability. +8% means our model thinks the true probability is 8 percentage points higher than what the odds imply. Finding positive edge consistently is what produces profitable betting over time.

How reliable are the track record numbers?

Every settled prediction is logged automatically when the pipeline runs — no manual curation, no removing losses. You can verify every row at /performance.

Ready to see today's predictions?

Free forever. No credit card required.

Start FreeView Track Record

Want the full technical detail? Read the model methodology →