Expected Value (EV)
The average return you can expect per bet over many repetitions.
Expected Value (EV) is the cornerstone of professional betting. A positive EV bet is one where the true probability of winning is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.
Formula: EV = (probability of winning × potential profit) − (probability of losing × stake)
Example: If you estimate a team has a 55% chance to win and the bookmaker offers odds of 2.10 (implying 47.6%), your EV per €10 stake is:
(0.55 × €11) − (0.45 × €10) = €6.05 − €4.50 = +€1.55 per bet
Over hundreds of bets, positive EV bets produce profit even if individual results vary. The OddsIntel model hunts for these edges.
Common Questions
Can you have positive EV and still lose money?
Yes, in the short run. Variance can produce losing streaks even with positive EV bets. Over 500+ bets, however, positive EV reliably produces positive results.
How does OddsIntel calculate EV?
The model estimates true win probability using a Poisson + XGBoost ensemble, then compares it to the bookmaker-implied probability (1 / odds). The difference, adjusted for margin, is the edge.