Ecuador vs Germany — World / World Cup | OddsIntel

Matches Value Bets Live Accuracy World Cup Performance Predictions Pricing

Ecuador vs Germany — World / World Cup | OddsIntel

Matches/World / World Cup

Ecuador

Ecuador

VSThu 25 JunMetLife Stadium

Germany

Germany

5.353.951.76

Win Probability

Win probability tracking will start when the match kicks off.

OddsIntel Model — Ecuador vs Germany

Per-fixture 1X2 with market context.

MED confidence

Our modelAIGermany

31%·29%·40%

Market consensusAIGermany

Ecuador are #4 (0W 0D 0L), Germany are #1 (0W 0D 0L).

Pre-match · model vs market

+0.8% margin

Ecuador

19%

Draw

25%

Germany

56%

29%·28%·44%

2 market sources averaged.

OddsIntel blended pickAIGermany

30%·29%·41%

λ=0.40 (40% market / 60% own, 2 market sources)

Top drivers

ELO gap — International ELO differential drives the base prior.
Recent form — Last 10 internationals weighted by opponent quality.
Key absentees — Confirmed unavailables (suspensions, injuries) — refreshes at T-60.

Probabilities cap at 70% per CALIBRATION-DISPLAY-CAP. Blend uses λ=0.6 (60% market / 40% own) when ≥3 market sources are present; scaled down proportionally when fewer sources are available.

Next 10 min · Goal probability

Goal probability tracking starts at kickoff.