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USA vs Paraguay — World / World Cup | OddsIntel
4 – 1 FT
Sat 13 Jun SoFi Stadium
Win Probability· final USA 100% · Draw 0% · Paraguay 0%
50% HT KO 15 30 45 60 75 FT Goal — 7' · 1-0 Goal — F. Balogun · 31' · 2-0 Intel62 Match21 Odds32 Context
USA are #1 (1W 0D 0L), Paraguay are #4 (0W 0D 1L). USA lead the H2H 4–0 in 4 meetings.
Odds were volatile before kickoff — our market signals picked up activity. USA won 4–1.
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Upgrade → AI Match Preview Full preview — PROUSA enters their 2026 World Cup opener against Paraguay with a 43% win probability according to our model, bolstered by a squad market value 363.8 times larger than their opponent's.
Full AI preview available on Pro — covers form, market movement, injury impact and edge assessment.
Signal Groups Pro feature 📊 Market Signals 12 Upgrade to Pro to see Market Signals signals
Upgrade → Goal — F. Balogun · 50' · 3-0 Goal — 73' · 3-1 Goal — Giovanni Reyna · 90' · 4-1 3 market sources averaged.
OddsIntel blended pick AI USA
43% · 29% · 29%
λ=0.60 (60% market / 40% own, 3 market sources)
Lineup-adjusted (T-60) AI USA
43% · 29% · 28%
Refreshed at T-60 after lineups dropped.
Top drivers ELO gap — International ELO differential drives the base prior. Recent form — Last 10 internationals weighted by opponent quality. Key absentees — Confirmed unavailables (suspensions, injuries) — refreshes at T-60. Probabilities cap at 70% per CALIBRATION-DISPLAY-CAP. Blend uses λ=0.6 (60% market / 40% own) when ≥3 market sources are present; scaled down proportionally when fewer sources are available.