OddsIntel Model — England vs Croatia

Per-fixture 1X2 with market context.

MED confidence

Our modelAIEngland

45%·28%·27%

Market consensusAIEngland

England are #1 (0W 0D 0L), Croatia are #2 (0W 0D 0L).

-0.3% margin

Best-line margin -0.3%. Shopping across 1 books erases the house edge on this match.

England

56%

Draw

25%

Croatia

19%

OddsIntel blended pickAIEngland

47%·28%·25%

λ=0.40 (40% market / 60% own, 2 market sources)

Our model agrees on England but is less confident (45% vs market 56%).

national_team_v1 · ELO 2067 vs 1947 · comp=tournament · form_n=20/20

England's €1.4B squad, 3.5x Croatia's value, opens their World Cup campaign. Our model gives England 47% to win.

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