

Per-fixture 1X2 with market context.
Mexico are #1 (1W 0D 0L), South Africa are #4 (0W 0D 1L).
Odds were volatile before kickoff — our market signals picked up activity. Mexico won 2–0.
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Upgrade →Mexico is favored at 58% by our model, despite a large market gap where they are rated 79%. South Africa is given an 18% chance by our model, significantly higher than the market's 7%. A key factor will be Mexico's attack.
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λ=0.40 (40% market / 60% own, 2 market sources)
Refreshed at T-60 after lineups dropped.
Our model agrees on Mexico but is less confident (50% vs market 70%+).
national_team_v1 · ELO 1924 vs 1748 · comp=tournament · form_n=20/20