Arouca vs Tondela
Result + AI recap · Primeira Liga
Full time
3–1
Arouca vs Tondela
The model did not have a settled published pick for this match.
Arouca
Home
Tondela
Away
What the model thought before kickoff
Highest-probability outcome
Arouca 37%
Probabilities from our Poisson + XGBoost ensemble. They reflect what the model thinks will happen — not what we'd bet at the current odds. See how accurate the model has been →
How OddsIntel predicts football matches
OddsIntel runs a Poisson + XGBoost ensemble trained on 10+ years of historical match data. The model factors in ELO ratings, recent form, head-to-head record, confirmed lineups + injuries when available, and current market prices. We publish CLV (closing line value) on every value bet — the metric that distinguishes a profitable model from a lucky one.
Accuracy is not the same as profitability. Even an 80%-accurate pick at 1.10 odds loses money long-term. See our live accuracy track record and full methodology.
Live odds + lineups
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