Ivory Coast faces Ecuador in their 2026 World Cup group stage opener. Our model gives Ivory Coast a 26% chance of victory, with the market consensus placing them at 27%. Ecuador holds a considerable 125-point ELO advantage (1927 vs 1802) and possesses the tournament's more valuable top asset at €35M. Both sides come into this fixture on the back of two draws in their last five matches. Watch for Ecuador's ability to convert their statistical edge into goals. Model leans Ecuador at 44%.