AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Mourinho returns to the Olimpico with Real Madrid and Mbappé

The story#

José Mourinho knows the way to the home dressing room at the Stadio Olimpico. He coached Roma from 2021 to 2024. On Wed 14 Oct he walks out of the other one, as Real Madrid's manager, with Kylian Mbappé up front. Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma have to stop him without their first-choice goalkeeper.

One game into the league phase, Real are 14th on 3 points after beating Inter 2–1 at the Bernabéu. Roma are 17th on 1 point after a 1–1 draw at Fenerbahçe. The top eight go straight to the last 16 and the next sixteen go into a play-off, so nothing is settled on matchday 2, but a home defeat would leave Roma chasing early.

Gasperini's side were unbeaten in six competitive games before the break, seven with the 0–0 at Como on Sun 11 Oct. It came at a cost. Donyell Malen, their top scorer, was sent off after 53 minutes; Corriere dello Sport expects the ban to cost him the next league game, against Genoa. Svilar has a stress fracture in his toe, Gasperini said, so Pierluigi Gollini keeps goal, and Marten de Roon stood in for Cristante in midfield.

Real's autumn has been bumpier. Mbappé, Federico Valverde and Ibrahima Konaté all spent late September on recovery work, then started at home to Villarreal on Sat 10 Oct, a 1–0 win settled by Yan Diomande after 62 minutes. Vinícius Júnior was sent off late on and Real held on with ten men. Away from the Bernabéu they have been beatable: they lost at Real Betis and in the derby at Atlético, two of their five away games since 16 Aug.

This decides it: Mbappé, Real's striker in the derby, against the Roma back three that started against Inter, Gianluca Mancini, Leonardo Balerdi and Mario Hermoso, with a stand-in goalkeeper behind them.

Form#

Team news#

Malen and Matías Soulé, Roma's two leading scorers, both started against Inter on 19 Sep, as did Manu Koné. For Real, Mbappé and Jude Bellingham started the derby; Carlos Espí, level with Bellingham on 3 goals, did not, but he was in the squad for Villarreal and no injury has been reported.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Kylian Mbappé against Gianluca Mancini. Mbappé has 9 goals in Real's last nine games, more than a third of their total, and led the line in the derby on 20 Sep. Mancini started on the right of Gasperini's back three against Inter on 19 Sep and was in it again at Como. Whoever wins that meeting decides how much work Gollini has in Svilar's place.

Head-to-head#

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

We have Real Madrid winning 2–1. Roma score at home: they found the net in all three home games in their last ten, 8 goals in all, and Real conceded in 7 of their last nine. But Roma now play with a reserve goalkeeper and without Cristante in front of the defence, against a forward scoring at this rate. We expect Mbappé to score, and Real to find one more from Bellingham, Vinícius or a set piece.

Where this could go wrong. Roma were unbeaten in six competitive games before the break, seven with Como, and the Olimpico will be loud for Mourinho's return, so a draw is the miss we would least be surprised by. The other way, Real scored four in three of their four home games, and with a stand-in goalkeeper facing Mbappé they could run away with it.

Updates#

Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 10 Oct 20:10 UTC, so the counts end on 19 Sep for Roma and 20 Sep for Real Madrid and leave out Real's game on 10 Oct and Roma's on 11 Oct. Roma's last ten include four pre-season friendlies; Real Madrid's last nine, all the games held since 16 Aug, include one. Team news and match details from Corriere dello Sport, Football Italia, realmadrid.com and UEFA.com.