Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United: Simeone's side need their first points, and a United win would leave them six behind
By Margus Sellin · · 5 min
Champions League · League phase · Matchday 2
Atlético Madrid
Manchester United
- Kick-off
- Venue
- Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
Our call: Atlético Madrid win 2–1
Atlético at home against a United defence that lets in a goal almost every game, with Bruno Fernandes the threat they have to smother.
Logged 11 Oct, 09:30 CEST, never edited. We'll mark this call after full time.
In 30 seconds
- Atlético are 26th of 36 with no points after losing at Liverpool; United are fourth after a 4–0 win over Sabah.
- United have conceded in 9 of their last 10 games, and are without Benjamin Šeško and Patrick Dorgu.
- Atlético at the Metropolitano are a different side, and we think United's defence pays for it.
The story
One game into the new league phase, Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid are already looking up at the places that matter. They lost 2–1 at Anfield on 9 Sep and sit 26th of 36 on no points. Michael Carrick's Manchester United beat Sabah 4–0 at Old Trafford and are fourth. Only the top eight go straight to the last 16. A United win would leave Atlético six points behind them with six games to play; an Atlético win pulls them level.
Atlético have looked better since Anfield. They beat Real Madrid 2–1 in the derby on 20 Sep and, on Sat 10 Oct, won 2–1 at Alavés with an 87th-minute goal from Cuti Romero, their fourth league win in a row. Julián Álvarez, who did not start the derby, came on at half-time. The Metropolitano has been the base: four of their ten games before the break were there, with three wins and a draw, 10 goals scored and 3 let in.
United arrive with a thinner squad. They took five points from their first five league games, then drew 1–1 with Tottenham at Old Trafford on Sat 10 Oct: Bryan Mbeumo scored, Spurs went down to ten men, and Dominic Solanke still equalised in stoppage time. Carrick has said Patrick Dorgu will be out for "probably a number of weeks" and that Benjamin Šeško "won't be ready".
This decides it: Bruno Fernandes against the Atlético midfield. United score through him, and Johnny Cardoso is the man Simeone will ask to stand in his way.
Form
Latest →
Atlético Madrid
- 20 SepW2–1v RMALL
- 16 SepW4–0v OSALL
- 13 SepW3–0at RSOLL
- 9 SepL1–2at LIVUCL
- 5 SepL0–3at ATHLL
Three league wins in a row before the break; a fourth came at Alavés on 10 Oct.
Manchester United
- 20 SepD1–1at FULPL
- 16 SepL2–3v BHALC
- 13 SepL0–1v MCIPL
- 10 SepW4–0v SABUCL
- 6 SepD2–2at EVEPL
One win in five before the break, then 1–1 with Tottenham on 10 Oct.
Latest on the left. LL = La Liga, PL = Premier League, LC = League Cup, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 9 Oct 2026.
Team news
Atlético Madrid
Checked Sat 10 Oct 21:15 CEST: no absences reported by atleticodemadrid.com or COPE after the win at Alavés, where Álvarez, Barrios and Sørloth all played.
Manchester United
- OutBenjamin Šeško: a shin problem; Carrick says he is "further away" than the others. United lose a striker with 2 goals in their last ten games.(reported)
- OutPatrick Dorgu: a hamstring injury on international duty; Carrick expects him out for a number of weeks. He was not in the last XI.(reported)
- DoubtfulMarcus Rashford: a hip problem; he pulled out of England duty and did not start against Tottenham. He started on the left at Fulham.(reported)
- DoubtfulNoussair Mazraoui: took a knock on international duty and was "not quite right yet", Carrick said; he did not start against Tottenham.(reported)
- OutManuel Ugarte: a knee injury. Matthijs de Ligt (back) is close to fitness.(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Sat 10 Oct 21:15 CEST: atleticodemadrid.com, COPE and Europa Press for Atlético; Sky Sports, the Premier League, Hayters and NBC Sports for United. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club.
All five of Atlético's leading scorers started their last game before the break. For United, Fernandes and Mbeumo started at Fulham, and the third place is shared by Matheus Cunha, who started, and Šeško, who is out. Kobbie Mainoo, a doubt after leaving the England squad, started against Tottenham.
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · at Fulham, 20 Sep
- Lammens
- DalotMaguireMartínezShaw
- MainooTielemans
- MbeumoFernandes (key battle)Rashford
- Cunha
- DavidLee Kang-in
- BaenaCardoso (key battle)LlorenteG. Simeone
- GrimaldoHanckoRomeroPubill
- Oblak
Atlético Madrid 4-4-2 · v Real Madrid, 20 Sep
Both last XIs on a pitch
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · at Fulham, 20 Sep
- Lammens
- DalotMaguireMartínezShaw
- MainooTielemans
- MbeumoFernandes (key battle)Rashford
- Cunha
- DavidLee Kang-in
- BaenaCardoso (key battle)LlorenteG. Simeone
- GrimaldoHanckoRomeroPubill
- Oblak
Atlético Madrid 4-4-2 · v Real Madrid, 20 Sep
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Bruno Fernandes against Johnny Cardoso. Fernandes plays behind the striker and has 4 goals in United's last ten games. Cardoso sits in the middle of Atlético's four-man midfield. If he follows Fernandes into the pockets, space opens for Mbeumo and Cunha. If he lets him turn, United's captain gets time to choose the final pass or shoot.
Atlético Madrid
Álex Baena
Atlético's top scorer before the break, from the left of midfield.
- 4
- goals, Atlético's last 10
Manchester United
Bryan Mbeumo
Scored against Tottenham on 10 Oct.
- 3
- goals, United's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 9 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Atlético knocked United out of the 2022 Champions League last 16, drawing in Madrid and winning at Old Trafford. United won the most recent meeting, a pre-season friendly in Solna in August.
Every meeting we hold (4, back to 2022)Result for Atlético Madrid
- 1 Aug 2026Manchester United v Atlético MadridFriendly, Solna2–1L
- 30 Jul 2022Atlético Madrid v Manchester UnitedFriendly, Oslo1–0W
- 15 Mar 2022Manchester United v Atlético MadridChampions League last 16, Manchester · Atlético won the tie 2–1 on aggregate0–1W
- 23 Feb 2022Atlético Madrid v Manchester UnitedChampions League last 16, Madrid1–1D
Every meeting we hold (4, back to 2022). OddsIntel match database, read 9 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Atlético Madrid 20.0, Manchester United 18.0 (higher is better)
Slightly more for Atlético. Both sides score freely.
Clean sheets, last ten: Atlético Madrid 3.0, Manchester United 1.0 (higher is better)
The difference: United's only shut-out was against Sabah.
Wins, last ten: Atlético Madrid 6.0, Manchester United 2.0 (higher is better)
The surprise: United's two wins were Sabah and Ipswich, both at home.
Last ten games each, all competitions and friendlies, to 20 Sep. OddsIntel match database, read 9 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Atlético winning 2–1. Simeone's side have scored in every home game of their last ten and have their attackers back, while United have kept one clean sheet in that run and now lose Dorgu and possibly Mazraoui from a stretched back line. United do score, though: Fernandes, Mbeumo and Cunha have shared their goals, so we expect one for them.
Where this could go wrong. Atlético conceded twice at Anfield and three times at Athletic Club, and if Fernandes finds space United could score more than once. The other way, Atlético could pull clear: United have not won away in their last ten, and the Tottenham game showed how late they can let a lead slip.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 9 Oct 20:10 UTC, so the counts end on 20 Sep and leave out both sides' games on 10 Oct. One 2022 friendly appears twice in the feed and is shown once. Team news and match details from atleticodemadrid.com, COPE, Europa Press, Sky Sports, the Premier League, Hayters, NBC Sports and UEFA.com.
Our calls so far: 18 right of 21
Right means we called the winner, or the draw, after 90 minutes. 2 of them were the exact score. Every call is scored after full time, misses included.
For comparison, calling the home team every time would have been right 11 of 21.
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