Benfica vs Celtic
- Kick-off
- Venue
- Estádio da Luz, Lisbon
Our call: Benfica win 3–1
Vangelis Pavlidis against a Celtic centre-back pair that may be without Cameron Carter-Vickers.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 13 Oct, 09:06 CEST, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- Benfica have won 9 of their last 10 games; the one defeat came at Porto, where they played more than an hour with ten men.
- Celtic lost three in a row before the break, then won 2–0 at Motherwell on Sun 11 Oct to go back top in Scotland.
- Without Carter-Vickers, Celtic will not keep Pavlidis quiet for 90 minutes.
The story
Martin O'Neill was made Celtic's permanent manager in June, at 74, after his interim spell ended in a league and Scottish Cup double. The autumn has tested him. Celtic beat LASK 3–0 at home in Champions League qualifying, then lost the second leg in Linz 4–1 after 90 minutes and 5–1 after extra time on 25 Aug, and dropped into this competition. Before the international break they lost three in a row: 3–0 at Rangers in the League Cup, 3–1 at home to Ferencváros in their Europa League opener and 1–0 at home to Rangers. It was the first run of three defeats in all competitions under O'Neill, and during the break he talked about his career, saying "it might be time to wrap it up", but also that he was "raring to go". Then Celtic won 2–0 at Motherwell on 11 Oct, Camilo Durán and Benjamin Nygren scoring, for O'Neill's 250th win as Celtic manager.
Marco Silva, in his first season at Benfica, has had an easier time. His side won 2–0 at AC Milan on matchday 1 and sit 7th in the 36-team table; Celtic are 28th with no points. Only the top eight go straight to the last 16, and 9th to 24th go into a play-off in February. They beat Vitória SC 2–0 at the Luz on 11 Oct. Silva has admitted he will change his XI for this game, and A Bola says the right side of his defence is the focus.
This decides it: Vangelis Pavlidis against Celtic's centre-backs. Pavlidis has eight goals in Benfica's last ten, Gianluca Prestianni six, and Celtic have conceded in six of their last ten. At Motherwell O'Neill paired Liam Scales with Dane Murray because Cameron Carter-Vickers had a strain, and he could not say whether Carter-Vickers would be fit for Lisbon.
Europa League 2026/27 explained: the format and the full league-phase table
Form
Won all four home games we hold since 17 Aug.
First win since 9 Sep, at Motherwell on 11 Oct.
The games, with scores
| Benfica | 11 Oct | v Vitória SCLP | W 2–0 |
| 20 Sep | at FC PortoLP | L 1–3 | |
| 16 Sep | at AC MilanUEL | W 2–0 | |
| 13 Sep | v Gil VicenteLP | W 3–1 | |
| 9 Sep | at MoreirenseLP | W 4–0 | |
| Celtic | 11 Oct | at MotherwellSP | W 2–0 |
| 20 Sep | v RangersSP | L 0–1 | |
| 17 Sep | v FerencvárosUEL | L 1–3 | |
| 13 Sep | at RangersLC | L 0–3 | |
| 9 Sep | at St JohnstoneSP | W 1–0 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. LP = Liga Portugal, SP = Scottish Premiership, LC = League Cup, UEL = Europa League. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Mon 12 Oct 21:00 CEST: slbenfica.pt, A Bola and Record for Benfica; BBC Sport (O'Neill to BBC Scotland after Motherwell), The Scotsman and A Bola for Celtic. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Bah came off against Vitória SC with tired thigh muscles after a family problem; Marco Silva said there is no problem with him, and Fredrik Aursnes finished that game at right-back. All of Benfica's leading scorers started against Vitória SC: Pavlidis, Prestianni, Leandro Barreiro and Rafa Silva. Celtic's Durán, Nygren and Mika Baur started at Motherwell; Yang Hyun-jun, level with Baur on two goals, did not, and no reason was given in the BBC Sport or A Bola reports.
Celtic 4-2-3-1 · at Motherwell, 11 Oct
- Sinisalo
- DonovanMurrayScales (key battle)Tierney
- McGregorBaur
- DuránNygrenTounekti
- Høgh
- Pavlidis (key battle)
- SchjelderupPrestianniRafa
- PalhinhaBarreiro
- DahlAraújoCircatiBah
- Soares
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · v Vitória SC, 11 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Celtic 4-2-3-1 · at Motherwell, 11 Oct
- Sinisalo
- DonovanMurrayScales (key battle)Tierney
- McGregorBaur
- DuránNygrenTounekti
- Høgh
- Pavlidis (key battle)
- SchjelderupPrestianniRafa
- PalhinhaBarreiro
- DahlAraújoCircatiBah
- Soares
Benfica 4-2-3-1 · v Vitória SC, 11 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Vangelis Pavlidis against Liam Scales. Pavlidis led the line against Vitória SC and is the man Celtic must stop. Scales is the centre-back who stays whether or not Carter-Vickers is fit, and he will have to deal with Pavlidis dropping off to link play as well as running behind. If Scales follows him into midfield, Prestianni and Andreas Schjelderup have the space behind; if he stays deep, Pavlidis gets time to turn.
Benfica
Gianluca Prestianni
Plays behind Pavlidis and started against Vitória SC.
- 6
- goals, Benfica's last 10
Celtic
Camilo Durán
Opened the scoring at Motherwell in the ninth minute.
- 6
- goals, Celtic's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
The two met twice in the 2012/13 Champions League group: a goalless draw in Glasgow, then a Benfica win in Lisbon.
Every meeting we hold (2, back to 2012). Result for Benfica. Every meeting we hold (2, back to 2012). OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Benfica 30, Celtic 15 (higher is better)
Twice as many for Benfica, seven of them in one game at Casa Pia.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Benfica 7, Celtic 14 (lower is better)
Five of Celtic's came in one game at LASK, after extra time; they also let in three twice in September.
Defeats, last ten · fewer is better: Benfica 1, Celtic 4 (lower is better)
Benfica lost once; Celtic lost both games against Rangers.
Last ten games each, all competitions, to 11 Oct. OddsIntel match database, read 11 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Benfica winning 3–1. They have scored in every one of their last ten games, and Pavlidis and Prestianni have 14 goals between them in that run. Celtic's defence was beaten three times by Ferencváros in Glasgow and three times by Rangers in the League Cup four days earlier, and Carter-Vickers may not be fit to play. Celtic will score, though: Durán has six in their last ten and scored again at Motherwell, and Benfica have conceded in half of their last ten games.
What could undo it. If Silva rotates heavily and changes his right-back, Celtic's wide players can attack a stand-in right-back, and a 2–2 draw or a narrow Celtic win is possible. The other way, Benfica scored seven at Casa Pia in August; if Pavlidis scores early and Celtic have to come out, this could be a Celtic defeat by three goals or more.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 11 Oct 20:10 UTC, so the counts run to both sides' games of 11 Oct. Team news and match details from slbenfica.pt, A Bola, Record, BBC Sport, The Scotsman, celticfc.com and beIN Sports.
18/21calls right so far
Right means we called the winner, or the draw, after 90 minutes. 2 were the exact score.
This count includes 2 smaller-club games, which the scoreboard lists on their own.
Calling a home win every time: 11 of 21.
See every call