France vs Belgium: Olise against a Belgium midfield without De Bruyne and Tielemans
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group A · Matchday 4
France
20:45
Belgium
- Kick-off
- Mon 5 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Stade de France, Paris
Our call
France win
Our score: France 1–0 Belgium
Belgium's midfield without the suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans. France need one goal, and Michael Olise has been scoring them.
Medium confidence: we'd expect France to win about half the time. Logged 4 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Belgium are without Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, both suspended after bookings against Türkiye on Fri 2 Oct.
- Kylian Mbappé is out with a knee injury, so France's goals now rest on Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise, who have 8 between them in France's last ten.
- France have won the last five meetings, and we think one goal will be enough to make it six.
The story
Mark van Bommel has had a month as Belgium's manager, and for the return game in Paris he has lost the middle of his team. Kevin De Bruyne scored twice against Türkiye in Liège on Fri 2 Oct, then was booked for kicking the ball away after the whistle. It was his second yellow card of the campaign, and Youri Tielemans was booked for the second time in the same game. Both are suspended on Mon 5 Oct. Between them they have 6 of Belgium's 24 goals in their last ten games.
Zinédine Zidane's France have a gap of their own. Kylian Mbappé hurt his left knee scoring against Türkiye on Fri 25 Sep and went back to Madrid; the federation calls it a tendon injury. He had 9 of France's 20 goals in their last ten. Since he went off, France have scored twice, and Michael Olise got both: the late winner in Brussels on Mon 28 Sep, and a finish off the underside of the bar from a short free-kick against Italy on Fri 2 Oct, before Alessandro Bastoni's equaliser spoiled Zidane's first home game.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 2Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 3Italy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4Türkiye | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Italy play Türkiye on the same evening. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
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A France win takes them to 10 points, four clear of Belgium with two games left. A Belgium win puts them top on 9, with France on 7 and Italy able to join France there if they beat Türkiye in Bologna.
The hole in Belgium's midfield is where we think this is won. Without De Bruyne, Van Bommel loses the passer who ran the game in Liège, and without Tielemans he loses the partner who sits beside him. Whoever comes in faces a France side that has kept 6 clean sheets in their last ten games and will not give a new pairing much time on the ball.
Form
France
- Latest · 2 OctD1–1v ITANL
- 28 SepW1–0at BELNL
- 25 SepW1–0at TURNL
- 18 JulL4–6v ENGWC
- 14 JulL0–2v ESPWC semi
Unbeaten under Zidane. Before him, the World Cup ended with a semi-final defeat by Spain and a 4–6 against England in the third-place game.
Belgium
- Latest · 2 OctW3–0v TURNL
- 28 SepL0–1v FRANL
- 25 SepW2–0at ITANL
- 10 JulL1–2v ESPWC
- 7 JulW4–1v USAWC
Three wins in five. Both defeats were by one goal, to France and to Spain.
Latest on the left. WC games were at neutral grounds; NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Team news
France
- OutKylian Mbappé: left knee tendon injury against Türkiye on 25 Sep; back in Madrid for treatment and not replaced in the squad. Dembélé started through the middle against Italy.
Belgium
- OutKevin De Bruyne: suspended, second yellow card of the campaign against Türkiye. Belgium lose the man who scored twice in that game.
- OutYouri Tielemans: suspended, booked against France on 28 Sep and again against Türkiye. Van Bommel needs a new midfield pair.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Sat 3 Oct 17:30 CEST: the FFF, franceinfo and UEFA.com for France; Sporza, L'Avenir and UEFA.com for Belgium. Confirmed = the federation or two outlets.
Romelu Lukaku is fit: Van Bommel left him on the bench for the whole of the defeat by France, and he came off it to score against Türkiye, Sporza and UEFA.com report. With De Bruyne out, Belgium need his 4 goals from their last ten more than ever.
Belgium 4-3-3 · v Türkiye, 2 Oct
- Lammens
- CastagneNgoyMecheleDe Cuyper (key battle)
- De BruyneTielemansVanaken
- LukebakioDe KetelaereGodts
- DouéDembéléOlise (key battle)
- RabiotDa CunhaCherki
- TruffertUpamecanoJacquetKalulu
- Maignan
France 4-3-3 · v Italy, 2 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Michael Olise against Maxim De Cuyper. Olise starts wide on the right, straight at Belgium's left-back. De Cuyper has to stop him cutting inside, and with Tielemans out, the midfield screen in front of Belgium's back four is new.
France
Ousmane Dembélé
Started through the middle against Italy. With Mbappé gone, nobody left in the squad has more goals.
- 6
- goals, France's last 10
Belgium
Charles De Ketelaere
Led the line against Türkiye and is one of three Belgium players on four goals.
- 4
- goals, Belgium's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
France have won all of the last five meetings, the latest 1–0 in Brussels on Mon 28 Sep.
Result for France
- 28 Sep 2026Belgium v FranceNations League, Brussels0–1W
- 14 Oct 2024Belgium v FranceNations League, Brussels1–2W
- 9 Sep 2024France v BelgiumNations League, Décines-Charpieu2–0W
- 1 Jul 2024France v BelgiumEuro, Düsseldorf1–0W
- 7 Oct 2021Belgium v FranceNations League, Turin2–3W
The newest five of the six meetings we hold, back to 2018. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored: France 20.0, Belgium 24.0 (higher is better)
Belgium score more, and nine of France's came from a player who is now injured.
Goals conceded · fewer is better: France 10.0, Belgium 8.0 (lower is better)
Close, and six of France's came in one game against England.
Clean sheets: France 6.0, Belgium 4.0 (higher is better)
Three of France's were 1–0 wins.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have France winning 1–0. Belgium score freely, but De Bruyne and Tielemans are the two who start their attacks from midfield, and both are missing. France have kept Belgium out in three of the last five meetings, and all three of their games under Zidane have been 1–0 or 1–1. Without Mbappé they have not scored many, so we expect one goal to decide it, and Olise to have a hand in it.
Two things could sink this. Belgium have scored in eight of their last ten games, and Lukaku and De Ketelaere can punish a France defence that has conceded in three of its last five games. France, for their part, were held at home by Italy on Fri 2 Oct and could find a reshaped Belgium harder to break than they expect. Should France stumble, a draw is the likelier miss than a Belgium win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: news from either camp, the starting XIs about an hour before kick-off, then the final score.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 3 Oct 08:10 UTC; team news and match details from the FFF, franceinfo, UEFA.com, Sporza and L'Avenir.