Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan: Salzburg have let in 5 goals in 10 games
- Kick-off
- Venue
- Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Our call: a draw, 1–1
Salzburg's centre-forward, Karim Konaté or Haris Tabaković, against a Milan back four that has just lost Matteo Gabbia.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 13 Oct, 09:06 CEST, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- Milan lose centre-back Matteo Gabbia: he was carried off at Sassuolo on 11 Oct, and Corriere dello Sport reports a torn thigh muscle that will keep him out for months.
- Milan have let in 13 goals in their last ten games, 6 of them in three pre-season friendlies. Salzburg are the harder side to score against.
- Salzburg are good enough at the back to hold Milan to one goal, and Milan are not good enough at the back to keep Konaté out.
The story
Ruben Amorim's AC Milan travel to Salzburg on Thu 15 Oct a centre-back short. Matteo Gabbia, making his first Serie A start of the season, was stretchered off after about 20 minutes of the 1–1 draw at Sassuolo on Sun 11 Oct. Corriere dello Sport reported a day later that scans found a torn muscle in his left thigh that will keep him out for months. Danny Röhl's Red Bull Salzburg are waiting, and they have the tighter defence of the two.
One game into the league phase, Salzburg are 14th on 3 points after winning 1–0 at Levski Sofia, and Milan are 30th with none after losing 0–2 at home to Benfica. The top eight go straight to the last 16 and the next sixteen into a play-off, so nothing is settled on matchday 2, but a second defeat would leave Amorim's side chasing from near the bottom of the table.
Salzburg have kept 6 clean sheets in their last ten games and won 7 of them; the one defeat was a friendly against FC Blau-Weiß Linz on 2 Oct. Their latest game was less convincing. At Grazer AK on Sat 10 Oct they drew 0–0 even though GAK hit the woodwork three times, and Röhl said afterwards that his side had not been good enough. He had changed seven of his starting XI after the international break, and Haris Tabaković, with 6 goals in this run, started on the bench.
Milan have drawn 3 of their last five, at Juventus, at Lazio and at Sassuolo; in between they lost at home to Benfica and beat Lecce 3–0. Adrien Rabiot put them ahead at Sassuolo after 63 minutes and Cas Odenthal equalised five minutes later. In his first season at the club, Amorim has not won away in a competitive game since the 2–1 at Torino on 23 Aug.
This decides it: Salzburg's centre-forward against Strahinja Pavlović, the left-sided centre-back in the Milan four that started at Sassuolo. Karim Konaté led the line at Grazer AK and Haris Tabaković came off the bench; whichever of them starts, Pavlović and his new partner, after Koni De Winter replaced Gabbia, will have him running at them for 90 minutes.
Form
Two wins in five, and the one defeat came in a friendly.
Three away draws in Serie A and a home defeat in Europe.
The games, with scores
| Red Bull Salzburg | 10 Oct | at Grazer AKBL | D 0–0 |
| 2 Oct | v FC Blau-Weiß LinzFr | L 1–2 | |
| 20 Sep | v Sturm GrazBL | W 3–0 | |
| 17 Sep | at Levski SofiaUEL | W 1–0 | |
| 11 Sep | at RiedBL | D 1–1 | |
| AC Milan | 11 Oct | at SassuoloSA | D 1–1 |
| 20 Sep | v LecceSA | W 3–0 | |
| 16 Sep | v BenficaUEL | L 0–2 | |
| 12 Sep | at LazioSA | D 2–2 | |
| 6 Sep | at JuventusSA | D 1–1 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. BL = Austrian Bundesliga, SA = Serie A, UEL = Europa League, Fr = friendly. OddsIntel match database, read 12 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Mon 12 Oct 21:15 CEST: the club's site, Der Standard, ORF, Salzburg24 and Ligaportal for Red Bull Salzburg; acmilan.com, Football Italia and Corriere dello Sport for AC Milan. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Haris Tabaković, with 6 goals in Salzburg's last ten games, and Edmund Baidoo, with 2, both started on the bench at Grazer AK on 10 Oct and came on after 54 minutes, ORF reported; Röhl had rotated seven players after the break, Salzburg24 reported. Neither ORF nor Salzburg24 reported an injury for either player (checked Mon 12 Oct 21:15 CEST). For Milan, Alphadjo Cissé, level with Rabiot and Diego Moreira on 3 goals, started on the bench at Sassuolo and came on for Christian Pulisic after 78 minutes (the club's official line-ups); neither acmilan.com nor Football Italia reported an injury for him.
AC Milan 4-4-1-1 · at Sassuolo, 11 Oct
- Maignan
- GilaGabbiaPavlović (key battle)Estupiñán
- ChukwuezeMusahRabiotMoreira
- PulisicRamos
- Konaté (key battle)
- VertessenKitanoLindström
- KrätzigBarry
- SchmidDrexlerBomaLainer
- Früchtl
Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1 · at Grazer AK, 10 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
AC Milan 4-4-1-1 · at Sassuolo, 11 Oct
- Maignan
- GilaGabbiaPavlović (key battle)Estupiñán
- ChukwuezeMusahRabiotMoreira
- PulisicRamos
- Konaté (key battle)
- VertessenKitanoLindström
- KrätzigBarry
- SchmidDrexlerBomaLainer
- Früchtl
Red Bull Salzburg 4-2-3-1 · at Grazer AK, 10 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Karim Konaté against Strahinja Pavlović. Konaté has 4 goals in Salzburg's last ten games and hit the post at Grazer AK. Pavlović started at left centre-back for Milan at Sassuolo, beside Gabbia until De Winter came on, and will have a new partner in Salzburg. If Konaté starts and wins that meeting, Salzburg score; if Pavlović does, Milan can end their run of away draws.
Red Bull Salzburg
Karim Konaté
Led the line at Grazer AK, with Tabaković on the bench.
- 4
- goals, Salzburg's last 10
AC Milan
Adrien Rabiot
Scored from midfield at Sassuolo after 63 minutes.
- 3
- goals, Milan's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 12 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Every meeting we hold (2, back to 2022): both in the 2022-23 Champions League group. Salzburg drew 1–1 at home, then lost 4–0 in Milan.
Every meeting we hold (2, back to 2022). Result for Red Bull Salzburg. Every meeting we hold, back to 2022. OddsIntel match database, read 12 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Red Bull Salzburg 22, AC Milan 16 (higher is better)
Salzburg score more, though most of theirs came against Austrian sides.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Red Bull Salzburg 5, AC Milan 13 (lower is better)
The gap that matters: Salzburg are the harder side to score against.
Clean sheets, last ten: Red Bull Salzburg 6, AC Milan 2 (higher is better)
Milan rarely keep one, which is why we expect Salzburg to score.
Last ten games each, all competitions and friendlies (one for Salzburg, three pre-season games for Milan), to 10 and 11 Oct. OddsIntel match database, read 12 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We lean towards a draw, 1–1. Salzburg won all four of their competitive home games in their last ten and kept clean sheets in two of them, so Milan will not find much room. But Milan have scored in 8 of their last 10, and with Rabiot arriving from midfield we expect them to get one. At the other end, a back four rebuilt around Pavlović without Gabbia gives Salzburg's striker room. Neither side has been sharp enough lately to win this by two: Salzburg could not score at Grazer AK, and Milan could not hold a lead at Sassuolo.
Where this could go wrong. Salzburg scored 15 in those four home games, so they could out-score a patched-up Milan back four and win; that is the miss we would least be surprised by. The other way, Milan beat Lecce 3–0 on 20 Sep and have goals in Rabiot, Moreira and Cissé; if Salzburg are as loose in front of goal as they were in Graz, Milan could win and take their first points of the league phase.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 12 Oct 18:40 UTC, so the counts end on 10 Oct for Salzburg and 11 Oct for Milan. Salzburg's last ten include one friendly and Milan's three pre-season friendlies. Team news and match details from redbullsalzburg.at, Der Standard, ORF, Salzburg24, Ligaportal, acmilan.com, Football Italia and Corriere dello Sport.
18/21calls right so far
Right means we called the winner, or the draw, after 90 minutes. 2 were the exact score.
This count includes 2 smaller-club games, which the scoreboard lists on their own.
Calling a home win every time: 11 of 21.
See every call