Top 5 Favorites to Win the 2026 World Cup

Spain emerges as the primary favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, with a 19% probability according to 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Spain also demonstrates a 53% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and holds the highest ELO rating at 2185. France is the second favorite, with a 9.5% chance of winning the tournament and a 25% probability of advancing to the semifinals. Argentina follows closely, having a 9.5% probability of lifting the trophy and a 37% chance of making it to the quarterfinals. England is rated as the fourth favorite, with a 6.9% win probability and an 89.5% chance of progressing from their group. Germany rounds out the top five, holding a 4.1% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup and an 86.2% probability of advancing to the knockout stages. Collectively, these top five teams account for 48% of the simulated tournament victories, indicating a competitive field beyond them.