For each team: how often they advance from the group, reach the R16, QF, SF, Final, and lift the trophy. Group stage outcomes drawn from our 1X2 model; knockouts simulated from current international ELO.
Snapshot 2h ago · Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:32:07 GMT · re-runs nightly at 06:30 UTC
← Back to World Cup hub| Spain | G | 2185 | 70%+ | 70%+ | 54% | 38% | 28% | 19% |
| France | I | 2096 | 70%+ | 62% | 42% | 25% | 17% | 10% |
| Argentina | J | 2091 | 70%+ | 59% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 9% |
| England | L | 2067 | 70%+ | 55% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 7% |
| Portugal | K | 2003 | 70%+ | 48% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| Germany | E | 1988 | 70%+ | 55% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| Morocco | D | 2011 | 70%+ | 49% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% |
| Netherlands | F | 1988 | 70%+ | 50% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 4% |
| Brazil | D | 1993 | 70%+ | 51% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 3% |
| Colombia | K | 1974 | 70%+ | 43% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 3% |
| Japan | F | 1957 | 70%+ | 45% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
| Norway | I | 1943 | 70%+ | 42% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% |
| Belgium | H | 1925 | 70%+ | 48% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Ecuador | E | 1927 | 70%+ | 44% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| Mexico | A | 1924 | 70%+ | 45% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Switzerland | B | 1926 | 70%+ | 48% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Croatia | L | 1947 | 70%+ | 38% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| Türkiye | C | 1927 | 70%+ | 39% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| South Korea | A | 1917 | 70%+ | 41% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| Uruguay | G | 1905 | 70%+ | 43% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| USA | C | 1903 | 70%+ | 36% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Senegal | I | 1899 | 64% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Canada | B | 1874 | 70%+ | 42% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Iran | H | 1882 | 70%+ | 37% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Algeria | J | 1876 | 63% | 28% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| Austria | J | 1859 | 65% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Uzbekistan | K | 1863 | 57% | 26% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Australia | C | 1865 | 61% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Panama | L | 1851 | 61% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Egypt | H | 1834 | 66% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Scotland | D | 1832 | 63% | 27% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| Paraguay | C | 1808 | 57% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Jordan | J | 1820 | 53% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | E | 1802 | 63% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| Czech Republic | A | 1784 | 64% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Congo DR | K | 1765 | 49% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Sweden | F | 1761 | 55% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | G | 1748 | 49% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Iraq | I | 1746 | 37% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| South Africa | A | 1748 | 46% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| New Zealand | H | 1704 | 46% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Haiti | D | 1733 | 37% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Tunisia | F | 1735 | 47% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Cape Verde Islands | G | 1696 | 44% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Qatar | B | 1660 | 44% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Curaçao | E | 1687 | 38% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Ghana | L | 1670 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | B | 1632 | 51% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Portugal
4%