Does The Most Expensive Squad Always Win The World Cup Group?

Mexico, with a squad value of 0 EUR, is ranked 4th in its group by value but is projected to advance 1st with an 81% probability. Squad valuation does not always correlate with predicted group stage advancement. For instance, in Group A, Mexico, valued at 0 EUR, is the lowest-ranked team by market value but is our model's top pick to advance at 81%. Conversely, South Africa, with a squad value of 1.03 million EUR, is ranked 2nd in its group by value but has only a 48% chance of advancing, ranking 4th in our model's projections. Another notable outlier is Scotland in Group D. The squad is valued at 1.22 billion EUR, making it the highest-valued team in the group. However, our model places them 3rd in advancement probability at 63%, behind Brazil (943.2 million EUR, 85% advance probability) and Morocco (490.2 million EUR, 79.6% advance probability). This suggests that while market value is a factor, our model prioritizes metrics like ELO ratings, current form, and group dynamics over pure financial valuation for predicting progression.