Closing Line Value vs Market — OddsIntel WC2026

CLV = (model's prob on the actual outcome) − (market's prob on the actual outcome). >0 means we leaned the right way harder than the market. <0 means the market was sharper than us on that fixture.

We sum across settled fixtures in chronological order to draw the cumulative line. The chart only includes matches where both our model and the vig-removed market consensus had a row — that's the apples-to-apples pool.

Market source: wc_market_consensus (average of Pinnacle / FotMob etc., vig-removed). Model source: whichever of national_team_v1 or national_team_v1_blended is available (blended wins when both exist) — same logic as the Summary page.