Brazil faces Morocco in the group stage at MetLife Stadium. Our blended model gives Brazil a 42% chance of victory, with a 28% probability for a draw and 30% for Morocco. This contrasts with market consensus, which places Brazil at 59% and Morocco at just 17%, a significant 17-point disagreement on Morocco's prospects. While international ELO ratings are close (Brazil 1993 vs Morocco 2011), Brazil’s squad market value is nearly double that of Morocco's (€943M vs €490M). Watch for Morocco's ability to disrupt Brazil's attack despite the valuation gap. Model leans draw at 28%, but Brazil is close at 42%.