Uruguay enters this Group stage fixture as the favorite, boasting a 1905 ELO rating compared to Saudi Arabia's 1748, a difference of 156 points. Our model gives Uruguay 56% to win, with Saudi Arabia at 20% and a 25% chance of a draw. Notably, there's a material disagreement between our model and the market consensus, which places Uruguay at 73% and Saudi Arabia at only 9%. Watch for how Saudi Arabia's recent form, including a draw in their last outing, fares against Uruguay's two consecutive draws. Model leans Uruguay at 56%, but the draw is live at 25%.