Spain enters their group stage opener against Cape Verde Islands as heavy favorites, with our model giving them 73% to win. This contrasts sharply with the market consensus, which places Spain's victory probability at 89%. The international ELO ratings further underscore Spain's dominance, showing a 489-point advantage (2185 vs 1696). While Cape Verde Islands' recent form is solid with three draws in their last five matches, Spain's considerably higher star power, valued at €200M, suggests a significant gulf. A key factor to watch will be Spain's ability to break down a potentially resolute Cape Verde defense. Model leans Spain at 73%, but the draw is live at 20%.