Pre-tournament model predictions — for entertainment only. These are generated by the OddsIntel AI engine (ELO ratings from 6,651 international matches + Poisson goals model) and are not the value bets we surface on the Value Bets page. Football is unpredictable — use this as a starting point, not a guarantee.
Tournament Predictions
France
Also consider: Spain (consensus)
Our ELO model favours France — Mbappé at 27 is at peak, France have been in 3 of the last 5 finals. Spain is the Opta/bookmaker consensus pick at 16.1%.
Kylian Mbappé
Both our model and the bookmakers agree. Market favourite (+600), already 12 WC goals across 2 tournaments, France's penalty taker, likely 7 games.
Norway
Erling Haaland's first ever World Cup. Norway's ELO ranks 17th — if they escape Group J past France and Senegal, Haaland alone can carry them deep.
Mexico
Also consider: USA (our model)
Mexico have the easiest group of the three hosts and Azteca altitude. Opta gives them 87% group advancement. USA have the stronger squad overall.
4 teams
Most likely: Curaçao, Haiti, Qatar, New Zealand. Smallest nations facing elite opposition across all 3 group games.
6
Penalty shootouts
in knockouts
2
Goals in Final
after 90 min
~89
Yellow cards MD1
across 24 games
Predicted Group Stage Scoresmodel picks, not betting advice
- 11 JunMexico2 – 0South Africa
- 12 JunSouth Korea2 – 1Czech Republic
- 18 JunCzech Republic1 – 0South Africa46%
- 19 JunMexico1 – 0South Korea42%
- 25 JunCzech Republic0 – 1Mexico48%
- 25 JunSouth Africa1 – 2South Korea52%
- 12 JunCanada1 – 1Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 13 JunQatar0 – 2Switzerland65%
- 18 JunSwitzerland2 – 0Bosnia & Herzegovina59%
- 18 JunCanada2 – 0Qatar62%
- 24 JunSwitzerland1 – 1Canada39%
- 24 JunBosnia & Herzegovina1 – 1Qatar38%
- 13 JunUSA4 – 1Paraguay
- 14 JunAustralia0 – 1Türkiye45%
- 19 JunUSA1 – 0Australia42%
- 20 JunTürkiye1 – 0Paraguay45%
- 26 JunTürkiye1 – 1USA37%
- 26 JunParaguay1 – 1Australia40%
- 13 JunBrazil1 – 0Morocco42%
- 14 JunHaiti1 – 2Scotland50%
- 19 JunScotland1 – 2Morocco50%
- 20 JunBrazil2 – 0Haiti63%
- 24 JunMorocco2 – 1Haiti58%
- 24 JunScotland1 – 2Brazil52%
- 14 JunGermany2 – 0Curaçao66%
- 14 JunIvory Coast0 – 1Ecuador44%
- 20 JunGermany2 – 1Ivory Coast55%
- 21 JunEcuador2 – 0Curaçao60%
- 25 JunEcuador1 – 1Germany41%
- 25 JunCuraçao1 – 2Ivory Coast51%
- 14 JunNetherlands1 – 1Japan40%
- 15 JunSweden1 – 1Tunisia41%
- 20 JunNetherlands2 – 1Sweden56%
- 21 JunTunisia1 – 2Japan54%
- 25 JunJapan2 – 1Sweden52%
- 25 JunTunisia1 – 2Netherlands56%
- 15 JunSpain3 – 0Cape Verde Islands73%
- 15 JunSaudi Arabia1 – 2Uruguay56%
- 21 JunSpain2 – 0Saudi Arabia67%
- 21 JunUruguay2 – 1Cape Verde Islands55%
- 27 JunUruguay1 – 2Spain58%
- 27 JunCape Verde Islands1 – 1Saudi Arabia38%
- 15 JunBelgium1 – 0Egypt49%
- 16 JunIran2 – 1New Zealand52%
- 21 JunBelgium1 – 0Iran43%
- 22 JunNew Zealand0 – 1Egypt48%
- 27 JunEgypt1 – 1Iran39%
- 27 JunNew Zealand1 – 2Belgium53%
- 16 JunFrance2 – 1Senegal56%
- 16 JunIraq0 – 2Norway61%
- 22 JunFrance2 – 0Iraq67%
- 23 JunNorway1 – 1Senegal41%
- 26 JunSenegal1 – 0Iraq48%
- 26 JunNorway0 – 1France48%
- 17 JunArgentina2 – 1Algeria56%
- 17 JunAustria1 – 0Jordan48%
- 22 JunArgentina2 – 1Austria57%
- 23 JunJordan0 – 1Algeria44%
- 28 JunAlgeria1 – 1Austria36%
- 28 JunJordan1 – 2Argentina57%
- 17 JunPortugal2 – 1Congo DR55%
- 18 JunUzbekistan0 – 1Colombia49%
- 23 JunPortugal2 – 1Uzbekistan52%
- 24 JunColombia2 – 1Congo DR52%
- 27 JunColombia1 – 1Portugal38%
- 27 JunCongo DR0 – 1Uzbekistan43%
- 17 JunEngland1 – 0Croatia47%
- 17 JunGhana0 – 1Panama47%
- 23 JunEngland2 – 0Ghana70%
- 23 JunPanama0 – 1Croatia47%
- 27 JunPanama1 – 2England57%
- 27 JunCroatia2 – 0Ghana60%