Previews · Premier League ·
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: Foden is scoring again, and Mings has to stop him on Villa's left
- Kick-off
- Venue
- Villa Park, Birmingham
Manchester City win. Logged 22 Oct, 07:13 UTC, never edited.
What happened
Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City. We said Manchester City win 3–2: Wrong result, 0 points.
- Nicolas Jackson put Villa ahead on 6', from John McGinn's pass. Erling Haaland made it 1–1 on 52', and Jackson scored again on 60', set up by Ibrahim Mbaye. We said Phil Foden v Tyrone Mings; Foden did not score, and City's goal came from Haaland. We said City's finishing would separate the sides; City scored once.
- Manchester City had 63% of the ball, 15 shots to 8 and 7 on target to 2. What we got right: Villa scored twice. Where we were wrong: the result; Villa won, with 2 shots on target, and City scored one goal, not three.
Before the match: our preview
In 30 seconds
- Manchester City are top with seven wins from seven league games. Aston Villa are 12th on 8 points, but unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions.
- Villa beat City in both meetings last season: 1–0 at Villa Park in October 2025 and 2–1 in Manchester in May 2026.
- City's defence is the weak link, and we expect Villa to score twice and still lose.
The story
Unai Emery's Villa come into this one on a run. They beat Viking 3–1 at Villa Park on Wed 21 Oct, their third win from three in the Champions League, four days after Johan Manzambi's goal won it 1–0 at Newcastle. They have lost once in their last ten games. The league table is the odd part: Villa are 12th, on eight points from seven games, and they had one day less to recover than City, who played on Tue 20 Oct.
Enzo Maresca's City, in his first season in charge, have scored in every one of their last ten games. The defence is another story. Paris Saint-Germain scored four at the Etihad on Wed 14 Oct, Ipswich scored two there on Sat 17 Oct, and AEK Athens got one in the 5–1 win on Tue 20 Oct. Erling Haaland sat that game out on the bench after a knock against Ipswich, and Foden scored a hat-trick without him. Maresca says Haaland is fit to start at Villa Park.
City are three points clear of Arsenal at the top, and Villa are five points behind fourth-placed Chelsea.
This decides it: Foden against Tyrone Mings. Foden played on the right of City's three behind the striker against AEK, which puts him straight up against Mings on Villa's left. If Villa's back four holds, their goals can take something from this game; if Foden keeps finding space, City outscore them.
Form
Unbeaten in five, with 15 goals scored.
Conceded in four of the five.
The games, with scores
| Aston Villa | 21 Oct | v VikingUCL | W 3–1 |
| 17 Oct | at NewcastlePL | W 1–0 | |
| 14 Oct | v FenerbahçeUCL | W 6–0 | |
| 10 Oct | v BrentfordPL | D 2–2 | |
| 2 Oct | at SevillaFR | W 3–1 | |
| Manchester City | 20 Oct | v AEK AthensUCL | W 5–1 |
| 17 Oct | v IpswichPL | W 3–2 | |
| 14 Oct | v Paris Saint-GermainUCL | L 2–4 | |
| 11 Oct | at LiverpoolPL | W 3–0 | |
| 20 Sep | v SunderlandPL | W 5–3 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. PL = Premier League, UCL = Champions League, FR = club friendly. OddsIntel match database, read 21 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Wed 21 Oct 21:45 UTC: avfc.co.uk and Sky Sports (Villa), mancity.com and Sky Sports (City), plus our injury data. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Haaland has twelve goals in City's last ten games, Rayan Cherki has six and Foden four. Villa's goals are spread out: Ross Barkley and Nicolas Jackson have five each and both started against Viking. Emiliano Buendía started too; Manzambi is the doubt above, and Tammy Abraham has started none of Villa's last three games, with no reason given by avfc.co.uk or Sky Sports.
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 · v AEK Athens, 20 Oct
- Donnarumma
- LewisKhusanovRúben DiasGvardiol
- AndersonFernández
- Foden (key battle)CherkiAllan
- Samba
- Jackson
- MbayeBuendíaAlysson
- BarkleyMcGinn
- Mings (key battle)Pau TorresLindelöfGomes
- Suzuki
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · v Viking, 21 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Manchester City 4-2-3-1 · v AEK Athens, 20 Oct
- Donnarumma
- LewisKhusanovRúben DiasGvardiol
- AndersonFernández
- Foden (key battle)CherkiAllan
- Samba
- Jackson
- MbayeBuendíaAlysson
- BarkleyMcGinn
- Mings (key battle)Pau TorresLindelöfGomes
- Suzuki
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1 · v Viking, 21 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Phil Foden against Tyrone Mings. Foden, who plays on the right of City's attacking three, lines up against Mings on Villa's left. If Mings keeps Foden on the outside, City have to go through the middle, where Pau Torres and Victor Lindelöf are waiting; if Foden gets inside him, Haaland and Cherki are there to finish it.
Manchester City
Phil Foden
Three goals against AEK, playing on the right behind the striker.
- 4
- goals, City's last 10
Manchester City
Erling Haaland
City's main source of goals, with Cherki and Foden behind him.
- 12
- goals, City's last 10
Aston Villa
Ross Barkley
Scored against Viking from central midfield.
- 5
- goals, Villa's last 10
Aston Villa
Nicolas Jackson
Led the line against Viking, level with Barkley on goals.
- 5
- goals, Villa's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 21 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
The last five of the ten meetings we hold, back to 2021, all in the Premier League. Villa won three of them.
All 5 meetings
Result for Aston Villa. The last five of the ten meetings we hold, back to 2021. OddsIntel match database, read 21 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Aston Villa 25, Manchester City 31 (higher is better)
Both sides score freely; City have scored in all ten.
Goals conceded, last five · fewer is better: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 10 (lower is better)
The surprise: the league leaders have let in more than twice as many as Villa in the last five games.
Clean sheets, last ten: Aston Villa 3, Manchester City 5 (higher is better)
City's five shut-outs all came before the PSG game on 14 Oct; they have conceded in every game since.
Last ten games each, all competitions (Villa's include a club friendly at Sevilla). OddsIntel match database, read 21 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Manchester City win 3–2. City have won nine of their last ten, and Foden has four goals in that run. Foden started on City's right against AEK, opposite Mings, who started at left-back against Viking (Sky Sports called Villa's back line makeshift), and that duel is where we think the game turns. But City's back four has been loose, and Villa have scored in nine of their last ten, so we give Villa two. City's finishing, not their defence, is what separates the sides.
Where this could go wrong. Villa come into this one in form, so a home win is a real possibility, and a draw would not be a shock either. If Haaland starts and City keep it tight at the back, City can win by more than one.
Updates
24 Oct, 17:12 CEST
Full time: Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester City (Jackson 6', 60'; Haaland 52'). Our 3–2 call: wrong result. See What happened.
Next: nothing further; this match is finished.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 21 Oct 21:10 UTC, so the counts run to Villa's game of 21 Oct and City's of 20 Oct. Villa's last ten go back to 5 Sep and include a club friendly; City's go back to 28 Aug. Team news and match details from avfc.co.uk, mancity.com, Sky Sports and the Premier League's match officials list.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Thu 22 Oct, 07:20 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Thu 22 Oct, 07:20 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
44c9cededaee6ecd804aece931c3f1f16b41e20070cadd6d048711f96dc2e1b0
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 27/42
- home win every time
- 19/42