Three methods, one board — every pick says which

26 picks on the board

2 still to kick off · 24 running or finished

Every pick carries its method. Sharp line and consensus picks use no prediction model at all — they beat a fair price, margin stripped out, by at least 3%; the difference is whether one sharp bookmaker sets that fair price or several agreeing ones do. Model picks come from our own probability model. Nothing is capped — a busy Saturday runs long, a thin Tuesday shows none.

Two methods, two separate records. Neither borrows the other's.

Sharp-edge —: uses no prediction model at all. Each pick is priced directly against the market with the bookmaker's margin removed — against the sharpest single line where one is sharp enough to trust, and otherwise against the consensus of several bookmakers, which is stated on every pick. It starts at zero on 14 September 2026 and no past performance is claimed for it.
Model —: our own probability model, running since long before that date, with its record on the performance page. Its edge is measured against our model rather than against the market, so its percentage is not comparable with a sharp-edge one — a 16% model edge and a 3% sharp edge are different quantities, not a 5x difference.

Today · 26 picks

08:00 UTC · Japan Emperor Cup

Kashima vs Ventforet Kofu

Pick: Under 2.5 goals9-book consensusGrade C · standardLostCLV +0.4%

Odds

2.64

min 2.51 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+5.2%

Book

Epicbet

08:00 UTC · Japan Emperor Cup

Vissel Kobe vs Sagan Tosu

Pick: Over 2.5 goals9-book consensusGrade C · standardLostCLV -2.9%

Odds

1.98

min 1.92 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.3%

Book

Epicbet

10:30 UTC · World Asian Games

Kyrgyz Republic U23 vs Hong Kong U23

Pick: Home win8-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV +13.2%

Odds

1.72

min 1.64 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+5.0%

Book

Epicbet

10:30 UTC · World Asian Games

Japan U23 vs Thailand U23

Pick: Under 2.5 goals6-book consensusweak · no longer publishedLostCLV +3.9%

Odds

2.70

min 2.60 · 4m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.9%

Book

Bet365

10:30 UTC · World Asian Games

Kyrgyz Republic U23 vs Hong Kong U23

Pick: Over 2.5 goals7-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV -10.7%

Odds

1.83

min 1.76 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.9%

Book

Epicbet

14:00 UTC · Czech-Republic Cup

Kladno vs Baník Ostrava

Pick: Over 2.5 goals8-book consensusGrade B · strongestWonCLV +12.5%

Odds

1.53

min 1.48 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.7%

Book

Bet365

14:00 UTC · Bosnia 1st League - RS

FK Majevica Lopare vs Laktaši

Pick: Over 2.5 goals5-book consensusGrade C · standardLive

Odds

2.35

min 2.23 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+5.3%

Book

Bet365

14:00 UTC · Romania Liga III - Serie 6

Petrolul Hartiesti vs Unirea Bascov

Pick: Home win5-book consensusGrade C · standardLive

Odds

2.88

min 2.78 · 14m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.5%

Book

Unibet

14:30 UTC · World Gulf Cup of Nations

Iraq vs Oman

Pick: Over 2.5 goals7-book consensusGrade C · standardLostCLV -25.9%

Odds

2.46

min 2.39 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.1%

Book

Epicbet

15:00 UTC · Nigeria NPFL

Inter Lagos vs Kano Pillars

Pick: Home win6-book consensusweak · no longer publishedLostCLV -19.9%

Odds

1.89

min 1.77 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+7.0%

Book

Epicbet

15:00 UTC · Nigeria NPFL

Shooting Stars vs Katsina United

Pick: Under 2.5 goals9-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV +12.1%

Odds

1.85

min 1.80 · 4m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.0%

Book

Bet365

15:00 UTC · Nigeria NPFL

Inter Lagos vs Kano Pillars

Pick: Over 2.5 goals7-book consensusGrade C · standardLostCLV +0.8%

Odds

2.60

min 2.48 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+4.8%

Book

Epicbet

16:00 UTC · Israel Liga Alef

Hapoel Marmorek vs Shimshon Tel Aviv

Pick: Away win7-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV -4.6%

Odds

1.65

min 1.60 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.4%

Book

Epicbet

16:00 UTC · World UEFA Europa Cup - Women

Sparta Praha W vs Farul Constanţa W

Pick: Home win9-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV +5.4%

Odds

1.18

min 1.14 · 3m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.3%

Book

Bet365

16:00 UTC · World UEFA Europa Cup - Women

Brøndby W vs Sporting CP W

Pick: Home win6-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV +4.9%

Odds

2.79

min 2.66 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+4.9%

Book

Epicbet

16:00 UTC · World Friendlies

Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan

Pick: Over 2.5 goals8-book consensusGrade C · standardLostCLV +4.7%

Odds

2.25

min 2.16 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+4.4%

Book

Epicbet

16:00 UTC · Macedonia First League

Bregalnica Štip vs Skopje

Pick: Home win8-book consensusGrade C · standardWonCLV +9.5%

Odds

1.62

min 1.57 · 19m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.1%

Book

Unibet

17:10 UTC · Israel Liga Alef

Dimona vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Pick: Home win10-book consensusGrade C · standardLostCLV -2.4%

Odds

2.01

min 1.91 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+5.3%

Book

Epicbet

17:45 UTC · Israel Liga Alef

Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

Pick: Away win7-book consensusweak · no longer publishedLostCLV +6.4%

Odds

3.67

min 3.43 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+6.9%

Book

Epicbet

18:00 UTC · Netherlands KNVB Beker

TOGB vs ROHDA Raalte

Pick: Away win7-book consensusweak · no longer publishedWonCLV -12.4%

Odds

1.63

min 1.52 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+7.5%

Book

Epicbet

18:00 UTC · England National League Cup

Boreham Wood vs Everton U21

Pick: Home win9-book consensusGrade B · strongestLostCLV +11.5%

Odds

1.36

min 1.31 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+4.0%

Book

Bet365

18:30 UTC · England WSL Cup

Leicester City FC W vs London City Lionesses W

Pick: Under 2.5 goals9-book consensusGrade C · standardLive

Odds

3.00

min 2.91 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.3%

Book

Epicbet

20:00 UTC · World CONCACAF Nations League

Bahamas vs Saint Martin

Pick: Over 2.5 goals8-book consensusGrade B · strongestLive

Odds

1.45

min 1.40 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.6%

Book

Pinnacle

21:30 UTC · Paraguay Copa Paraguay

Fernando De La Mora vs Libertad Asuncion

Pick: Away win8-book consensusGrade B · strongestLive

Odds

1.24

min 1.20 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.2%

Book

Epicbet

23:00 UTC · Uruguay Copa Uruguay

Wanderers vs Cerrito

Pick: Home win11-book consensusGrade C · standard

Odds

2.13

min 2.05 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+3.8%

Book

Epicbet

23:30 UTC · Chile Copa Chile

Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta

Pick: Home win12-book consensusGrade C · standard

Odds

2.85

min 2.71 · 0m apart

Edge vs sharp

+5.3%

Book

Epicbet

▶On the watchlist — top 3 prices by edge, not picks yet

Prices the sharp line says are close but not yet worth taking. Grade B is the price that beats the sharpest line by 3% — our bar for publishing a pick. Grade Ais 5%. Both are arithmetic against the sharp line, not forecasts. Find one of those prices and it is a bet on the same terms as anything we publish; at today's prices it is not.

Match	Pick	Best now	Grade B	Grade A
Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 01:30 UTC · Major League Soccer	Home win	1.84 SBO	1.88 +3% vs sharp	1.92 +5% vs sharp
Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 01:30 UTC · Major League Soccer	Over 2.5 goals	1.57 Betano	1.66 +3% vs sharp	1.69 +5% vs sharp
Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake 01:30 UTC · Major League Soccer	Under 2.5 goals	2.55 Pinnacle	2.72 +3% vs sharp	2.77 +5% vs sharp

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