- Kick-off
- Venue
- Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
Our call: a draw, 1–1
Kane against Dávid Hancko, and an Atlético defence that has let in more than one goal once in ten games.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 1 Nov, 09:41 UTC, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- Harry Kane has scored in his last ten Champions League appearances; one more equals Cristiano Ronaldo's record run, UEFA.com says.
- Ismael Saibari, Serge Gnabry and Michael Olise were all hurt against Dortmund on Sat 31 Oct; Atlético are reported to be without Morten Hjulmand, banned after his red card at Stuttgart.
- Atlético's defence can stop Bayern scoring twice, but it cannot keep Kane out completely.
The story
Harry Kane comes to Madrid one goal from history. He has scored in each of his last ten Champions League appearances, UEFA.com notes, and a goal at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Tue 3 Nov would equal Cristiano Ronaldo's competition record of eleven in a row. He also arrives with a miss to put right: against Borussia Dortmund on Sat 31 Oct his penalty hit the crossbar with Bayern 1–0 up, and Dortmund came back twice to draw 2–2.
Bayern are still without their head coach. Vincent Kompany collapsed at a training session on Fri 23 Oct and is still recovering, so his stand-in, Aaron Danks, chooses the team, as he has for the last three games. The Dortmund draw cost him more than two points. Ismael Saibari appeared to hurt his ankle in a collision with Gregor Kobel after 29 minutes, Danks said, and left the ground on crutches, Serge Gnabry went off two minutes later with a muscle injury, and Michael Olise could not finish the game. Max Eberl said two of the injuries looked fairly serious, and kicker reported that a long absence is feared for Saibari and Gnabry, though not for Olise. Luis Díaz and Jamal Musiala were already injured.
Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid have had a calmer run. Alejandro Grimaldo and Giuliano Simeone scored in a 2–0 win at Levante on Sat 31 Oct, their seventh La Liga win in a row. Simeone has his own gap to fill: Hjulmand, who started in midfield at Levante, was sent off at Stuttgart on 20 Oct, and Koke is still nursing a thigh strain.
The table gives both a reason to push. Bayern are 14th in the 36-team league phase on five points and Atlético 16th on four, both outside the top eight who skip February's play-off round, so a home win would lift Atlético above Bayern. History is on Atlético's side at home: UEFA.com counts three home meetings with Bayern without defeat.
This decides it: Kane against Dávid Hancko, who started in Atlético's defence at Levante. Bayern have scored at least twice in each of their last ten games, but with Olise, Gnabry and Saibari hurt, more of that weight falls on Kane. If Hancko and the defenders around him keep Kane to half-chances, Atlético will not lose.
Champions League 2026/27 explained: the format and the full league-phase table
Form
Four clean sheets in five; they played with ten men in the draw at Stuttgart.
Unbeaten in five, but Arsenal and Dortmund both left Munich with a 2–2.
The games, with scores
| Atlético Madrid | 31 Oct | at LevanteLL | W 2–0 |
| 24 Oct | v Deportivo La CoruñaLL | W 1–0 | |
| 20 Oct | at VfB StuttgartUCL | D 1–1 | |
| 17 Oct | at EspanyolLL | W 1–0 | |
| 13 Oct | v Manchester UnitedUCL | W 2–0 | |
| Bayern München | 31 Oct | v Borussia DortmundBL | D 2–2 |
| 28 Oct | v 1. FC MagdeburgDFB | W 6–1 | |
| 25 Oct | at SC FreiburgBL | W 3–1 | |
| 21 Oct | v ArsenalUCL | D 2–2 | |
| 17 Oct | v RB LeipzigBL | W 6–1 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. LL = La Liga, BL = Bundesliga, DFB = DFB Pokal, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 31 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Sun 1 Nov 07:20 UTC: Bundesliga.com (Bayern's injuries and the Dortmund match report, 31 Oct; Díaz, 27 Oct), kicker, UEFA.com (the matchday 3 round-up, 20 Oct), atleticodemadrid.com (Koke's medical report), LaLiga.com (Levante v Atlético, 31 Oct) and El Desmarque (Atlético's injury list, 28 Oct). Reported = not yet confirmed by the club for this match. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Jonathan David, with 2 goals in Atlético's last ten, started on the bench at Levante and came on for Kang-In Lee after 67 minutes, LaLiga.com's match centre shows; no injury has been reported. Ademola Lookman came off the bench there too. On Bayern's side, Lennart Karl, who started at least once in Bayern's last three games, is one option if Danks needs an attacker.
Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · v Borussia Dortmund, 31 Oct
- Urbig
- LaimerUpamecanoKimDavies
- KimmichPavlović
- OliseSaibariGnabry
- Kane (key battle)
- ÁlvarezLee
- BaenaHjulmandBarriosG. Simeone
- GrimaldoHancko (key battle)PubillLlorente
- Oblak
Atlético Madrid 4-4-2 · at Levante, 31 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Bayern München 4-2-3-1 · v Borussia Dortmund, 31 Oct
- Urbig
- LaimerUpamecanoKimDavies
- KimmichPavlović
- OliseSaibariGnabry
- Kane (key battle)
- ÁlvarezLee
- BaenaHjulmandBarriosG. Simeone
- GrimaldoHancko (key battle)PubillLlorente
- Oblak
Atlético Madrid 4-4-2 · at Levante, 31 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Harry Kane against Dávid Hancko. Kane led Bayern's line against Dortmund; Hancko started in Atlético's defence at Levante. When Kane drops off to collect the ball, Hancko has to choose between following him and handing him to a midfield that is missing Hjulmand.
Bayern München
Harry Kane
Bayern's centre-forward, who led the line against Dortmund.
- 8
- goals, Bayern's last 10
Atlético Madrid
Julián Álvarez
Led Atlético's line at Levante on Sat 31 Oct.
- 2
- goals, Atlético's last 10
Atlético Madrid
Alejandro Grimaldo
Opened the scoring at Levante on 31 Oct.
- 2
- goals, Atlético's last 10
Goals with a known scorer in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 31 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Atlético Madrid 19, Bayern München 38 (higher is better)
Twice as many; Bayern put seven past Union Berlin and six past both Leipzig and Magdeburg.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Atlético Madrid 5, Bayern München 13 (lower is better)
Atlético let in more than one goal only at Liverpool.
Clean sheets, last ten: Atlético Madrid 6, Bayern München 2 (higher is better)
Bayern's two came at home to Union Berlin and Bodo/Glimt.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 31 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: a draw, 1–1. Bayern have scored in every one of their last ten games, and Atlético have scored in all of theirs, so we expect a goal at each end. What stops us expecting more from Bayern's attack is the list of attackers who were hurt on 31 Oct, and the Atlético defence Kane has to beat. What stops us calling an Atlético win is Kane, who rarely goes a European night without scoring, and a midfield in front of Hancko and Pubill that has lost Hjulmand.
Where this could go wrong. If Olise's scan is clear and he plays, Bayern have a second forward who scored freely in this run, and they put six past Leipzig and Magdeburg in October. The other way, Atlético have won four of their last five, and if Álvarez or Giuliano Simeone scores first, Simeone's side know how to protect a lead at home.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: Bayern's scan results, the referee when UEFA appoints one, then confirmed line-ups, about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database, read 31 Oct 21:10 UTC, so the counts run to both sides' games on Sat 31 Oct. A player goal count leaves out any goal whose scorer we do not hold (5 of Atlético's 19 in their last ten; none of Bayern's 38), so read Atlético's as floors. Team news, match details and Champions League history from Bundesliga.com, kicker, UEFA.com, atleticodemadrid.com, LaLiga.com and El Desmarque.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Sun 1 Nov, 10:00 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Sun 1 Nov, 10:00 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
2f3aa2c9f0041fac7dbd9d7bda6fbce7e615f36b4a54566697d61b335641204f
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 30/49
- home win every time
- 22/49