Barcelona vs Aston Villa: 40 goals in ten games

The story#

Hansi Flick's Barcelona go into Tue 3 Nov on the back of a 6–1 win over Alavés on Sat 31 Oct, Flick's 100th as their coach; the club says no Barcelona coach has a better win percentage. Raphinha and Lamine Yamal scored twice each. The week before was harder: a 2–4 defeat at PSG on 20 Oct and a 1–2 home defeat by Real Madrid on 25 Oct, settled by a late Kylian Mbappé goal.

Flick is short at the back. The club lists Jules Koundé, Eric García, Andreas Christensen and Xavi Espart as injured, so Brian Fariñas made his debut at right-back against Alavés, in what the club called an unfamiliar position. Dani Olmo, hurt in a collision at PSG, is out for about a month.

Unai Emery's Aston Villa arrive with a perfect European record: three wins from three, including 6–0 against Fenerbahçe on 14 Oct, and second in the 36-team table, level with PSG on points and goal difference. Their domestic week went less well. Bournemouth knocked them out of the League Cup 3–0 on 28 Oct, and on 31 Oct John McGinn hit the bar with a penalty before goalkeeper Zion Suzuki let a corner slip through his hands for Fulham's equaliser in a 1–1 draw. Emery called it a disappointing but fair result.

This decides it: Lamine Yamal on Barcelona's right against Ian Maatsen, Villa's left-back on 31 Oct. Barcelona's attack scores against almost anyone, and Villa will score too, so the game turns on whether Maatsen and the midfielders around him can stop Yamal creating a second Barcelona goal.

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Form#

Team news#

Three of the scorers in our numbers did not start on 31 Oct, and none is reported injured. Gabriel Jesus, with 4 goals in Barcelona's last ten, was on the bench against Alavés, came on after 62 minutes and set up Yamal's second goal. Ross Barkley, with 5 in Villa's last ten, started on the bench against Fulham and came on after 79 minutes. Tammy Abraham, with 3, was not in Villa's squad of 20 that day, and neither the club nor Sky Sports gave a reason.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Lamine Yamal against Ian Maatsen. Yamal started in Barcelona's front three against Alavés and scored twice; Maatsen started at left-back for Villa against Fulham. If Maatsen holds Yamal one against one, Villa can keep their shape and break; if he needs a midfielder to help every time, Barcelona find the space for a second goal.

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

Our call: Barcelona win 2–1. We expect Barcelona to score more than once: they have done it in nine of their ten games, and at home they put 22 past their five visitors in that run. We expect Villa to score as well, because Barcelona have conceded 16 goals in their last ten and Jackson and McGinn give Villa runners behind a makeshift back line. Villa conceded once in their last two Champions League games, so we do not expect a rout, but we expect Yamal to make the one goal that separates them.

Where this could go wrong. Villa beat Manchester City 2–1 on 24 Oct, and Barcelona lost to PSG and Real Madrid in October; if Villa score first, a draw is more likely than a Barcelona win. The other way, Barcelona have scored five or more four times in this run, even with defenders missing, and an early goal could turn this into a rout.

Updates#

Nothing has changed since we published. Next: Flick's and Emery's press conferences on Mon 2 Nov, UEFA's choice of referee, and both confirmed team sheets about an hour before kick-off.

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 31 Oct 23:10 UTC, so the counts include both sides' games on Sat 31 Oct. In those ten games our scorer lists have no name for 7 Barcelona goals and 2 Villa goals, so each player's tally is a minimum. Team news and match details from fcbarcelona.com, avfc.co.uk and Sky Sports.