Previews · La Liga ·
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: lose at Camp Nou and Mourinho's Madrid are nine points behind
- Kick-off
- Venue
- Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona
Barcelona win. Logged 23 Oct, 15:18 UTC, never edited.
What happened
Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid. We said Barcelona win 3–2: Wrong result, 0 points.
- Kylian Mbappé put Real Madrid ahead on 41', and Raphinha equalised on 61', from Pedri's pass. Mbappé scored the winner on 87', set up by Eduardo Camavinga. We said Kylian Mbappé v Pau Cubarsí; Mbappé scored both of Madrid's goals. We said Barcelona's attack would outscore their thin back line's mistakes; Madrid scored twice, as we expected, but Barcelona scored only once.
- Barcelona had 62% of the ball, 18 shots to 10 and 6 on target to 5. What we got right: Madrid scored twice, and Mbappé was the player who hurt Barcelona. Where we were wrong: the result; we expected Barcelona to score three at home, and they scored one. We named a Madrid win as one way this could go wrong, and Madrid won.
Before the match: our preview
In 30 seconds
- Barcelona are top on 27 points, six clear of third-placed Real Madrid; a home win makes the gap nine.
- Vinícius Júnior is banned, while Barcelona are without Dani Olmo, Eric García and Andreas Christensen, and Jules Koundé is a doubt.
- Madrid will score twice at Camp Nou and still go home beaten.
The story
Hansi Flick's Barcelona have won all nine of their league games this season. The only defeat in their last ten came in the Champions League on Tue 20 Oct, when they twice came from behind in Paris and still lost 4–2 to PSG. It was their first defeat of the season, and they have five days to shake it off.
José Mourinho is back at Real Madrid for a second spell, and this is his first Clásico since he left the club in 2013. His side have won their last four, three of them by scoring four, and in that run, AS notes, he moved Federico Valverde to right-back and Arda Güler and Bernardo Silva into midfield. Their two defeats in their last ten both came away from home in the league, at Atlético Madrid and Real Betis, the sides now second and fourth.
The table sets the stakes. Barcelona have 27 points from nine games and a goal difference of +30; Real Madrid have 21 and +14, a point behind Atlético. A Madrid win cuts the gap to three; a Barcelona win makes it nine. The last time Real Madrid came to Camp Nou, on Sun 10 May, Barcelona won 2–0 and, as the club recalls, sealed the title.
This decides it: whether Barcelona's patched-up centre of defence can live with Kylian Mbappé. Barcelona have conceded in eight of their last ten and kept only two clean sheets in that run.
Form
Seventeen goals in five games, and the four conceded in Paris were the most in that run.
Four wins since the derby defeat at Atlético, three of them at the Bernabéu.
The games, with scores
| Barcelona | 20 Oct | at Paris Saint GermainUCL | L 2–4 |
| 17 Oct | at Real BetisLiga | W 5–2 | |
| 13 Oct | at GalatasarayUCL | W 4–1 | |
| 10 Oct | v GetafeLiga | W 3–0 | |
| 19 Sep | at SevillaLiga | W 3–1 | |
| Real Madrid | 21 Oct | v RB LeipzigUCL | W 4–1 |
| 18 Oct | v SevillaLiga | W 4–1 | |
| 14 Oct | at AS RomaUCL | W 4–3 | |
| 10 Oct | v VillarrealLiga | W 1–0 | |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico MadridLiga | L 1–2 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. Liga = La Liga, UCL = Champions League. OddsIntel match database, read 22 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Fri 23 Oct 09:50 UTC: fcbarcelona.com and Mundo Deportivo (Barcelona); realmadrid.com, Marca, AS and the LaLiga match centre (Real Madrid). Confirmed = the club or two outlets; reported = one outlet so far. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Gabriel Jesus, with at least two goals in Barcelona's last ten, was on the bench in Paris and did not come on; fcbarcelona.com reported no injury and gave no reason. Yan Diomande, with at least three in Real Madrid's last ten, began on the bench against Leipzig, came on for Vinícius and scored. With Vinícius banned, AS expects Diomande to start on the left.
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · v RB Leipzig, 21 Oct
- Courtois
- ValverdeRüdigerHuijsenCarreras
- B. SilvaCamavinga
- GülerBellinghamVinícius
- Mbappé (key battle)
- Raphinha
- GordonOlmoYamal
- PedriBernal
- CanceloG. MartínCubarsí (key battle)Espart
- J. García
Barcelona 4-2-3-1 · at PSG, 20 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · v RB Leipzig, 21 Oct
- Courtois
- ValverdeRüdigerHuijsenCarreras
- B. SilvaCamavinga
- GülerBellinghamVinícius
- Mbappé (key battle)
- Raphinha
- GordonOlmoYamal
- PedriBernal
- CanceloG. MartínCubarsí (key battle)Espart
- J. García
Barcelona 4-2-3-1 · at PSG, 20 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Kylian Mbappé against Pau Cubarsí. Mbappé led the line against Leipzig and scored. Cubarsí is the centre-back Flick can count on, and with two centre-backs out, Cubarsí will have a new partner.
Real Madrid
Kylian Mbappé
Madrid's centre-forward, with four goals with a known scorer in their last ten.
- 4
- goals with a known scorer, Real Madrid's last 10
Barcelona
Anthony Gordon
Started in Paris on the left of Barcelona's attacking three; if Valverde stays at right-back, Gordon is the winger he has to stop.
- 2
- goals with a known scorer, Barcelona's last 10
Real Madrid
Arda Güler
Moved into midfield by Mourinho and scored against both Sevilla and Leipzig.
- 2
- goals with a known scorer, Real Madrid's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions, where we hold the scorer (a minimum). OddsIntel match database, read 22 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
The last five of the seven meetings we hold, back to 2023. Barcelona won three of them inside 90 minutes and the Copa del Rey final in extra time.
All 5 meetings
Result for Barcelona. The last five of the seven meetings we hold, back to 2023; scores after 90 minutes. The extra-time result of the 2025 final from realmadrid.com and fcbarcelona.com. OddsIntel match database, read 22 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: Barcelona 43, Real Madrid 27 (higher is better)
Barcelona put five or more past five of their last ten opponents.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: Barcelona 15, Real Madrid 12 (lower is better)
Madrid let in fewer, but three of their twelve came in one game, the 4–3 in Rome.
Wins, last ten: Barcelona 9, Real Madrid 8 (higher is better)
Barcelona's only defeat in that run was the night in Paris.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 22 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Barcelona win 3–2. In their last ten Barcelona have played four games at home and won all four, scoring 20, and they have scored at least three in every league game in that run. But Barcelona's back line is thin, with two centre-backs out and Koundé a doubt, and Madrid have scored in nine of their last ten. We expect them to score twice and Barcelona to score once more.
Where this could go wrong. If Koundé is fit and Barcelona's defence holds as it did in the 2–0 here in May, a bigger home win is possible. If Mbappé and Diomande get in behind early, Madrid can take all three points and cut the gap to three; if it is tight late on, a draw is likelier than a Madrid win.
Updates
26 Oct, 08:25 CET
Full time: Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid (Mbappé 41', Raphinha 61', Mbappé 87'). Our 3–2 call: wrong result. See What happened.
Next: nothing further; this match is finished.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 22 Oct 21:40 UTC, so the counts run to Barcelona's game at PSG on 20 Oct and Real Madrid's against RB Leipzig on 21 Oct. Scorer counts are minimums: they include only goals whose scorer is in our records. Team news, positions and match details from fcbarcelona.com, realmadrid.com, the LaLiga match centre, Marca, AS and Mundo Deportivo.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Fri 23 Oct, 15:30 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Fri 23 Oct, 15:30 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
e7423e925e305094f6614b1047dbb8c33f4a4093fa35a80a788e27337d1d4ab6
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 27/42
- home win every time
- 19/42