Belgium vs Türkiye: a defence that has let in ten in five meets Belgium's 23 in ten
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group A · Matchday 3
Belgium
20:45
Türkiye
- Kick-off
- Fri 2 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liège
Our call
Belgium win
Our score: Belgium 2–1 Türkiye
Türkiye have lost four of their last five and conceded in all five. Belgium have scored 23 in their last ten, so we expect two from them, and Türkiye to score once, as they have in seven of their last ten.
Medium confidence: we'd expect Belgium to win about half the time. Logged 1 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Türkiye have lost four of their last five games and conceded in every one of them, ten goals in all.
- Belgium have scored 23 goals in their last ten, 2.3 a game, with Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku on four each.
- Belgium have three points and Türkiye none after two games. Another defeat leaves Türkiye without a point after three.
The story
Türkiye beat the USA 3–2 at the World Cup in June, and they have not won since: four defeats in five games, the last a 4–1 at home to Italy on Monday. On Friday in Liège they meet a Belgium side that has scored 23 goals in its last ten games.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 2Belgium | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3Italy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Belgium have three points and Türkiye none. A Belgium win takes them to six. OddsIntel match database, read 1 Oct 2026.
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Belgium won 2–0 in Italy, then lost 1–0 at home to France on Monday. Türkiye lost both of their home games, 1–0 to France and 4–1 to Italy. Romelu Lukaku and Leandro Trossard, with seven of Belgium's goals in their last ten between them, were not in Monday's starting XI. Our data does not say why, so we won't guess.
This is where we think it is decided: Türkiye concede. They have let in ten goals in their last five games and kept no clean sheet in any of them, while Belgium average 2.3 goals a game over their last ten. Belgium did not score against France on Monday, but they have scored in eight of their last ten.
Form
Belgium
- Latest · 28 SepL0–1v FRANL
- 25 SepW2–0at ITANL
- 10 JulL1–2v ESPWC
- 7 JulW4–1v USAWC
- 1 JulW3–2v SENWC
Three wins, two defeats, 10 scored and 6 conceded. Both defeats were by a single goal, to Spain and France.
Türkiye
- Latest · 28 SepL1–4v ITANL
- 25 SepL0–1v FRANL
- 26 JunW3–2v USAWC
- 20 JunL0–1v PARWC
- 14 JunL0–2v AUSWC
One win, four defeats, 4 scored and 10 conceded. They conceded in all five and failed to score in three.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues), NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 1 Oct 2026.
Team news
Belgium
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Türkiye
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Our data feed carries no injury news for this game. That is not the same as no injuries, so we say nothing until it is confirmed.
Türkiye 3-4-3 · v Italy, 28 Sep
- Bayındır
- ÇelikDemiralKabak
- AydınKökçüÖzcanElmalı
- GülerB. Yılmaz (key battle)Uzun
- De Ketelaere (key battle)
- GodtsDe BruyneMoreira
- TielemansLavia
- SeysMecheleNgoyCastagne
- Lammens
Belgium 4-2-3-1 · v France, 28 Sep
The key battle, and who else to watch
The key battle
Belgium
Charles De Ketelaere
Türkiye
Barış Alper Yılmaz
- 4
- goals
- 4
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions
Ketelaere: led the line against France on Monday, and has four of Belgium's goals in their last ten, level with Lukaku for the most.
Yılmaz: started up front against Italy on Monday, and has four of Türkiye's 14 goals in their last ten, the most our data credits to any Türkiye player.
Level on goals, but not on help. Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne, who also started for Belgium on Monday, have five more between them. Arda Güler and Orkun Kökçü, who also started for Türkiye, have one each.
Belgium
Romelu Lukaku
Not in Monday's starting XI, and our data does not say why. His four goals in Belgium's last ten are level with De Ketelaere's.
- 4
- goals, Belgium's last 10
Türkiye
Arda Güler
Started on the right of Türkiye's front three against Italy, and has one of their goals in their last ten. If Türkiye are to score more than once, they need more than Yılmaz.
- 1
- goals, Türkiye's last 10
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions; a player may not have played in all ten. OddsIntel match database, read 1 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Belgium 2.3, Türkiye 1.4 (higher is better)
Belgium have scored 23 in their last ten, Türkiye 14.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Belgium 0.8, Türkiye 1.3 (lower is better)
The gap behind our call: Türkiye have conceded in all of their last five, ten goals. Belgium kept four clean sheets in ten.
Wins, last five: Belgium 3.0, Türkiye 1.0 (higher is better)
Türkiye's one win in five was 3–2 against the USA at the World Cup in June.
Last ten games each, all competitions, except the wins row (last five each). OddsIntel match database, read 1 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Belgium winning 2–1. Türkiye have lost four of their last five and conceded in every one of them, ten goals in all, and Belgium have scored 23 in their last ten, so we expect two Belgium goals. We don't expect a clean sheet: Belgium have conceded in six of their last ten, and Türkiye have scored in seven of theirs, though in only two of their last five.
The risk to this call is on both sides. Belgium did not score against France on Monday, and if Lukaku and Trossard are missing again they may find only one. Türkiye beat the USA 3–2 at the World Cup and drew 2–2 in Spain in November 2025, so they can score more than once. If we're wrong, we think a draw is likelier than a Türkiye win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: team news once it is confirmed, the confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and the result after full time.