Brentford vs Liverpool: unbeaten Brentford have scored in each of their last ten games

The story#

Keith Andrews's Brentford are fourth on 10 points: six league games have brought two wins and four draws. Pre-season brought wins at Rennes and at home to Eintracht Frankfurt. At home in the league they have beaten Tottenham and Chelsea 3–0 and drawn 1–1 with Sunderland. The 2–2 at Aston Villa on Sat 10 Oct left Andrews torn: "We could've won it, could've lost it." It also cost him Kevin Schade, who went off with a shoulder problem.

Andoni Iraola, in his first season since he replaced Arne Slot, has had a stranger week. Liverpool lost for the first time this season on Sun 11 Oct, 3–0 at home to Manchester City, then won 6–3 at LASK in Linz on Wed 14 Oct, where Bradley Barcola scored a hat-trick. The kick-off at Brentford comes three days after that trip. Liverpool are ninth on 9 points, one behind Brentford, so a win would lift them above the side they are playing. The bigger problem is up front: Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai and Cody Gakpo were all still injured before Linz, and Iraola said he did not know if they would be ready for Brentford.

This decides it: Bradley Barcola against Michael Kayode. With Isak and Gakpo doubtful, Barcola is the forward Liverpool lean on, and he started on the left in Linz, straight at where Brentford's right-back plays. If Kayode keeps him quiet, Liverpool have to find goals from Florian Wirtz and Lewis Koumas against a side that has let in one goal in three home league games.

Form#

Team news#

Two of Liverpool's three leading scorers in their last ten, Isak and Szoboszlai, are on that injury list, and so is Gakpo. Brentford's third, Callum Wilson, is fit as far as anyone has reported: he started on the bench at Villa and came on for Jaidon Anthony late on, and neither the club nor Sky Sports gave a reason for leaving him out. Liverpool's last XI in Linz was a changed one: Virgil van Dijk, Alexis Mac Allister and Milos Kerkez, who each started at least one of the two games before it, were not in it, so expect changes for Brentford.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Bradley Barcola against Michael Kayode. Barcola started on the left in Linz, with Wirtz inside him and Koumas through the middle. Kayode is the right-back who has to stop him running in behind, and how much help he gets from the winger in front of him, Jaidon Anthony at Villa, decides how often he is left on his own against Barcola.

Head-to-head#

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

We have Brentford winning 2–1. At home they have let in one goal in three league games, and Thiago gives them a striker who keeps finding the net. Liverpool still have Barcola and Wirtz, so we expect them to score. But Iraola may have none of Isak, Szoboszlai and Gakpo, with the legs that ran in Linz on Wed 14 Oct asked to go again at 3pm UK time on Sat 17 Oct.

Where this goes wrong. If Isak or Szoboszlai is fit and Liverpool rest well, they have enough to win here, as they did in three straight meetings before last season's 3–2. The other way, Brentford have drawn more league games than they have won; if Schade is missing and Thiago is crowded out, a 1–1 draw is more likely than a bigger Brentford win.

Updates#

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 14 Oct 19:10 UTC, so the counts run to Brentford's game of 10 Oct and Liverpool's of 14 Oct. Brentford's last ten include two pre-season friendlies, Liverpool's one. Team news and match details from brentfordfc.com, liverpoolfc.com, Sky Sports, PA, ESPN (LASK v Liverpool) and the Premier League (match officials, Matchweek 7).