Croatia vs England: Kane against a defence that keeps conceding
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group C · Matchday 3
Croatia
18:00
England
- Kick-off
- Sat 3 Oct · 18:00 CEST · 17:00 UK
- Venue
- Venue to be confirmed
Our call
England to win
Our score: Croatia 1–2 England
England have scored 24 goals in their last ten games, and Croatia have conceded in nine of their last ten. We expect Croatia to score, but England to score more.
Medium confidence: we'd expect England to win about half the time. Logged 30 Sep, 19:50 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Harry Kane has eight goals in England's last ten games, and Jude Bellingham seven: 15 of England's 24.
- Croatia have conceded in nine of their last ten, 19 goals in all, and let in four in Spain on Tuesday.
- Croatia and England are level on three points, three behind Spain. The winner here moves to six.
The story
Harry Kane has eight goals in England's last ten games. On Saturday he meets a Croatia side who have conceded in nine of their last ten games, and who lost 4–2 to England in Arlington at the World Cup in June.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 2England | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 4Czechia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Croatia and England are level on three points; the winner moves to six. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Both sides won in Czechia and lost to Spain. England lost 3–2 at home to Spain, then won 2–0 in Czechia. Croatia won 2–1 in Czechia, then lost 4–1 in Spain on Tuesday. Over England's last ten games, Kane scored 8 and Bellingham 7 of their 24 goals. Bellingham was not in Tuesday's starting XI, and our data does not say why, so we won't guess.
This is where we think it is decided: England score, and Croatia concede. England average 2.4 goals a game over their last ten, Croatia 1.4. Croatia have let in 1.9 a game over the same ten and kept one clean sheet, against Panama.
Form
Croatia
- Latest · 29 SepL1–4at ESPNL
- 26 SepW2–1at CZENL
- 2 JulL1–2v PORWC
- 27 JunW2–1v GHAWC
- 23 JunW1–0v PANWC
Three wins, two defeats, 7 scored and 8 conceded. They conceded in four of the five; the 1–0 against Panama is their only clean sheet in ten games.
England
- Latest · 29 SepW2–0at CZENL
- 26 SepL2–3v ESPNL
- 18 JulW6–4v FRAWC
- 15 JulL1–2v ARGWC
- 11 JulW2–1v NORWC
Three wins, two defeats, 13 scored and 10 conceded. England scored in all five, but only the 2–0 in Czechia was a clean sheet.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues), NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Team news
Croatia
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
England
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Our data feed carries no injury news for this game. That is not the same as no injuries, so we say nothing until it is confirmed.
England 4-2-3-1 · at Czechia, 29 Sep
- Trafford
- Alexander-ArnoldChalobahGuéhiHall
- AndersonLewis-Skelly
- SakaRogersGordon
- Kane (key battle)
- Beljo
- PerišićSučićPašalić (key battle)
- KovačićMišić
- GvardiolPongračićŠutaloSmolčić
- Livaković
Croatia 4-2-3-1 · at Spain, 29 Sep
The key battle, and who else to watch
The key battle
Croatia
Marco Pašalić
England
Harry Kane
- 2
- goals
- 8
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions
Pašalić: started on the right in Spain, and has two of Croatia's goals in their last ten.
Kane: led the line in Czechia, and has eight of England's goals in their last ten, more than any other England player.
Croatia will need Pašalić and the players around him to score, because we expect them to concede. Kane is the finisher in form, and Croatia have kept one clean sheet in ten games.
Croatia
Luka Modrić
Not in Tuesday's starting XI. His two goals in Croatia's last ten are level with Pašalić's in our data.
- 2
- goals, Croatia's last 10
England
Jude Bellingham
Not in Tuesday's starting XI either. If he starts on Saturday, England add a player with seven goals in England's last ten.
- 7
- goals, England's last 10
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions; a player may not have played in all ten. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Head-to-head
The last five meetings, back to 2018: one Croatia win, one draw, three England wins. England have won the last three, most recently 4–2 at the World Cup in June. Croatia's last win over England was 2–1 at the 2018 World Cup in Moscow.
Result for Croatia
- 17 Jun 2026England v CroatiaWorld Cup, Arlington4–2L
- 13 Jun 2021England v CroatiaEuro 2020, London1–0L
- 18 Nov 2018England v CroatiaNations League, London2–1L
- 12 Oct 2018Croatia v EnglandNations League, Rijeka0–0D
- 11 Jul 2018Croatia v EnglandWorld Cup, Moscow2–1W
The last five meetings, whatever their age. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Croatia 1.4, England 2.4 (higher is better)
The gap behind our call: England have scored 24 in their last ten, Croatia 14.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Croatia 1.9, England 1.5 (lower is better)
Croatia have conceded 19 in ten. England are not watertight either: 15 in ten, and ten of them in their last five.
Wins: Croatia 5.0, England 7.0 (higher is better)
England won seven of their last ten and lost two. Croatia won five and lost five.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Our call, explained
We have England winning 2–1. Croatia have scored in nine of their last ten, and England have conceded ten in their last five, so we expect Croatia to score. But England score more, 2.4 a game to Croatia's 1.4, Kane has eight in ten, and Croatia have kept one clean sheet in ten games.
The risk to this call is on both sides. Croatia are the home side, and if they defend the way they did against Panama, England may not score twice. If England's defence leaks as it did against France and Spain, Croatia may score more than once. If we're wrong, we think a draw is likelier than a Croatia win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: team news once it is confirmed, the confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and the result after full time.