Czechia vs England: Kane should be the difference in Prague
UEFA Nations League · Matchday 2
Czechia
20:45
England
- Kick-off
- Tue 29 Sep · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Fortuna Arena, Prague
- Referee
- Halil Umut Meler
Our call
England to win
Our score: Czechia 1–2 England
England create far more than Czechia, who have managed 2.5 shots on target a game. Harry Kane has seven in his last ten. England will concede, as they have in each of their last five, but not as often as they score.
High confidence: we'd expect England to win about two times in three. Logged 28 Sep, 21:00 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Kane has 7 goals in his last 10 games.
- England have scored and conceded in each of their last five: 14 for, 12 against.
- Czechia are winless in four competitive games and put 2.5 shots a game on target.
The story
The last time England came to Prague, in October 2019, they lost 2–1. Saturday's 3–2 defeat by Spain at Wembley means the loser here could be six points off the top after two games.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 2Croatia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 3England | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4Czechia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Spain play Croatia on the same night. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Czechia have a new coach in Santi Denia, who won Olympic gold with Spain's under-23s in 2024; Saturday's 2–1 loss to Croatia was his first game. Thomas Tuchel's England finished third at the World Cup, beating France 6–4 in a wild third-place play-off after losing the semi-final to Argentina.
England make chances and Czechia don't, and Kane is the one taking them. Czechia shoot often enough but rarely hit the target. England's problem is at the other end, and it's why we don't expect a clean sheet.
Form
Czechia
- Latest · 26 SepL1–2v CRONL
- 25 JunL0–3v MEXWC group
- 18 JunD1–1v RSAWC group
- 12 JunL1–2v KORWC group
- 5 JunW3–1v GUAFriendly
One win in five, and that was a friendly. Winless in four competitive games; 6 scored and 9 conceded across the five.
England
- Latest · 26 SepL2–3v ESPNL
- 18 JulW6–4v FRAWC 3rd pl.
- 15 JulL1–2v ARGWC semi
- 11 JulW2–1v NORWC QF
- 6 JulW3–2v MEXWC R16
Three wins, two defeats, 14 scored and 12 conceded. Nobody has kept England out, and nobody has been kept out by them.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues; the Guatemala friendly was in the US), NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Team news
Czechia
- DoubtfulAdam Karabec: limped off after scoring against Croatia(reported)
- WithdrawnJurásek, Zima, Višinský, Provod, Ryneš, Vlček, Chorý: injured(reported)
- DoubtfulLadislav Krejčí: calf; missed Saturday, when Vladimír Coufal captained(reported)
- OutTomáš Souček: injured(reported)
England
- WithdrawnPalmer, Rice, Rashford, Mainoo, Livramento: injury or load management(reported)
- OutDean Henderson: injured; James Trafford keeps the gloves(reported)
- DoubtfulEzri Konsa, Nico O'Reilly: on individual training programmes on Monday(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Squad news: Evening Standard (via Yahoo), Football365 and RotoWire, 28 Sep 2026. Marked confirmed only once the federation (FAČR, FA) or two independent outlets report it.
England 4-2-3-1 · v Spain, 26 Sep
- Trafford
- QuansahKonsaGuéhiO'Reilly
- AndersonLewis-Skelly
- SakaBellinghamGordon
- Kane (key battle)
- Hložek
- KarabecŠulcAmbros
- ČervSadílek
- SlámaChaloupekHranáč (key battle)Coufal
- Horníček
Czechia 4-2-3-1 · v Croatia, 26 Sep
The key battle, and who else to watch
The key battle
Czechia
Robin Hranáč
England
Harry Kane
- 1
- goals
- 7
- 4
- shots
- 36
- 7
- tackles
- 3
Both players, last 10 games, all competitions
Hranáč: the centre-back who will spend the night on Kane, and the more physical of Czechia's pair.
Kane: seven goals in ten games, and still the one England look for first.
Czechia conceded nine in their last five. If Saka and Bellingham get Kane the ball in the box, we don't think Czechia's back four can hold him for ninety minutes.
England
Bukayo Saka
England's most dangerous runner, and a goal threat of his own.
- 6
- goals, last 10
- 14
- chances created
England
Jude Bellingham
Keeps his place on form. He makes England's chances.
- 20
- chances created, last 10
- 3
- assists
Czechia
Vladimír Coufal
Captain with Krejčí out, and Czechia's best creator, from right-back.
- 23
- chances created, last 10
- 3
- assists
Czechia
Adam Hložek
Led the line on Saturday. Shoots a lot; needs to hit the target more.
- 25
- shots, last 10
- 2
- goals
Player form uses a fixed window: last 10 games, all competitions. Chances created = passes that led to a shot. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Head-to-head
England have won two of the last three, but the other was Czechia's 2–1 in Prague in 2019, the last time England played there.
Result for Czechia
- 22 Jun 2021Czech Republic v EnglandEuro 2020, group, Wembley0–1L
- 11 Oct 2019Czech Republic v EnglandEuro qualifier, Prague2–1W
- 22 Mar 2019England v Czech RepublicEuro qualifier, Wembley5–0L
Our database holds three meetings, back to 2019, all shown. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Numbers that matter
Shots on target per game: Czechia 2.5, England 6.2 (higher is better)
England hit the target more than twice as often.
Goals scored per game: Czechia 1.2, England 2.8 (higher is better)
England have scored 14 in five; Czechia 6.
Shots allowed per game · fewer is better: Czechia 14.8, England 16.4 (lower is better)
The one row Czechia win, and our worry: England have let opponents shoot more than 16 times a game in their last five.
Last five games each. Czechia's shot figures use four: no stats exist for the Guatemala friendly. Goals use all five. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Our call, explained
We have England winning 2–1. They are better on two of the three numbers above, Kane is in form, and a Czechia side still learning its new coach's ideas has not hit the target often enough to trouble anyone. England will concede, though. They gave Mexico 20 shots.
The risk to this call is on both sides. England's midfield, short against Spain too, still has no Rice, Mainoo or Palmer, and Coufal crossing from the right can make a messy game messier. Czechia are stretched as well, with Souček and seven others out, so a home side under a new coach could sit deep and play for a point, which makes 1–1 the likeliest way we're wrong.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and other outlets' predictions once two or more have published.