Denmark vs Portugal: Denmark score freely, Portugal hardly concede
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group D · Matchday 3
Denmark
20:45
Portugal
- Kick-off
- Thu 1 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Parken Stadium, Copenhagen
Our call
Portugal win
Our score: Denmark 1–2 Portugal
Denmark score in almost every game, but Portugal have not let in more than one in any of their last ten, and they scored twice or more in six of them. We expect one Denmark goal and two from Portugal.
Low confidence: a lean towards Portugal, closer to a coin flip than we'd like. Logged 30 Sep, 21:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Rasmus Højlund has five of Denmark's 24 goals in their last ten, and Isaksen, Damsgaard, Dorgu and Andersen, who all started on Sunday, have scored in that run too.
- Portugal have let in six goals in their last ten, and never more than one in a game.
- Portugal top the group with six points. A Denmark win takes them level; a Portugal win puts them six clear of Denmark.
The story
Rasmus Højlund has five goals in Denmark's last ten games, and Denmark have 24 in all. On Thursday at Parken they meet a Portugal side who have not conceded more than once in any of their last ten games, and who lead the group with two wins from two.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 2Norway | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3Denmark | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4Wales | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
A Denmark win takes them level with Portugal on six points; a Portugal win puts them six clear of Denmark. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Denmark lost 3–2 in Norway, then beat Wales 2–0 on Sunday. Portugal beat Wales 1–0 at home and won 2–1 in Norway. Denmark's goals come from all over the team: over their last ten, Højlund has 5, Gustav Isaksen 4, Mikkel Damsgaard 4, Patrick Dorgu 3 and Joachim Andersen 2, and all five started on Sunday.
This is where we think it is decided: Denmark have scored in nine of their last ten, but Portugal have let in six goals in ten and never more than one in a game. Denmark average 2.4 goals a game over their last ten, Portugal concede 0.6.
Form
Denmark
- Latest · 27 SepW2–0v WALNL
- 24 SepL2–3at NORNL
- 7 JunW2–1v UKRFriendly
- 3 JunD0–0at CODFriendly
- 31 MarD1–1at CZEWC qual.
Two wins, two draws, one defeat, 7 scored and 5 conceded. The 3–2 in Norway is the only game of the five where they let in more than one.
Portugal
- Latest · 27 SepW2–1at NORNL
- 24 SepW1–0v WALNL
- 6 JulL0–1v ESPWC
- 2 JulW2–1v CROWC
- 27 JunD0–0v COLWC
Three wins, one draw, one defeat, 5 scored and 3 conceded. Six conceded in their last ten, never more than one in a game.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues), WC qual. = World Cup qualifying, NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Team news
Denmark
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Portugal
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Our data feed carries no injury news for this game. That is not the same as no injuries, so we say nothing until it is confirmed.
Portugal 4-1-3-2 · at Norway, 27 Sep
- Diogo Costa
- CanceloRúben DiasVeigaNuno Mendes
- Palhinha
- ConceiçãoJoão NevesPedro Neto
- Félix (key battle)Gonçalo Ramos
- Højlund (key battle)
- DorguDamsgaardIsaksen
- HøjbjergHjulmand
- MæhleProvstgaardAndersenKristensen
- Jörgensen
Denmark 4-2-3-1 · v Wales, 27 Sep
The key battle, and who else to watch
The key battle
Denmark
Rasmus Højlund
Portugal
João Félix
- 5
- goals
- 3
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions
Højlund: led the line against Wales, and has five of Denmark's goals in their last ten, more than any other Denmark player.
Félix: started up front in Norway, and has three of Portugal's goals in their last ten, level with Cristiano Ronaldo.
Denmark need Højlund, or one of the other starters with goals, to score twice against a defence that has not conceded twice in any of its last ten games. Portugal have scored in eight of their last ten, so one Denmark goal may not be enough.
Denmark
Gustav Isaksen
Started on the right on Sunday. His four goals in Denmark's last ten are level with Damsgaard's, one behind Højlund.
- 4
- goals, Denmark's last 10
Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo
Not in Sunday's starting XI, and our data does not say why. His three goals in Portugal's last ten are level with Félix's.
- 3
- goals, Portugal's last 10
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions; a player may not have played in all ten. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Head-to-head
Our database holds three meetings, back to 2012: one Denmark win, two Portugal wins. In March 2025 they met twice in three days: Denmark won 1–0 in Copenhagen, then Portugal won 5–2 in Lisbon.
Result for Denmark
- 23 Mar 2025Portugal v DenmarkNations League, Lisbon5–2L
- 20 Mar 2025Denmark v PortugalNations League, Copenhagen1–0W
- 13 Jun 2012Denmark v PortugalEuro 20122–3L
Every meeting our database holds (three). It does not record whether any of them went to extra time. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Denmark 2.4, Portugal 1.7 (higher is better)
Denmark score more: 24 in their last ten to Portugal's 17.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Denmark 1.2, Portugal 0.6 (lower is better)
The gap behind our call: Portugal have let in six in ten, never more than one in a game. Denmark have let in 12, including three in Norway and four in Scotland.
Wins: Denmark 5.0, Portugal 7.0 (higher is better)
Portugal won seven of their last ten and lost one. Denmark won five and lost two.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Portugal winning 2–1, and it is a lean, not a strong view. Denmark have scored in nine of their last ten, so we expect them to score. But Portugal have not let in more than one in any of their last ten, have won seven of them, and scored twice or more in six.
The risk to this call is on both sides. Denmark beat Portugal 1–0 in Copenhagen in March 2025, and Højlund, Isaksen, Damsgaard, Dorgu and Andersen all started on Sunday with goals in Denmark's last ten. Portugal scored only five in their last five, so they may not score twice. If we're wrong, we think a draw is likelier than a Denmark win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: team news once it is confirmed, the confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and the result after full time.