The Price Check · #8
FootballPredictions review: −5.5% at its own odds over 18 days
Margus Sellin2 Nov 2026Grade C · Oct 2026
Our verdict
all tested markets · 2,991 picks · 11 Oct – 28 Oct · at its own odds, unverified Why
We sell picks too. Its record was read after the matches.
More
- picks tested
- 2,991
- picks tested
- no hit rate printed
- n/a
- no hit rate printed
- at the sharp close
- −1.8%
- at the sharp close
€10 on each Over/Under 2.5 tip in 18 days: −€186 at its prices (past results, illustration only). This is an 18-day window, shorter than the 30 days our format asks for.
What is FootballPredictions? Price, tiers and claims
In short: a free tips site that shows a price and a probability beside every tip, and prints no hit rate or profit figure.
Read more
FootballPredictions is a free football predictions site run by AdBrothers B.V. of Amsterdam (the name on its homepage). Each match page lists about fourteen tips with odds and a probability: goals totals, both teams to score, double chance, draw no bet, correct score, handicaps, goalscorers and cards. Its pages carry bookmaker ads. Price: free, no account needed for the tips; a free tipster competition needs a login (not used).
We tested the tips we can price and grade, seven markets: Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 goals, both teams to score, double chance and draw no bet. The others are counted, not graded. These are its claims:
| FootballPredictions says | What we measured |
|---|---|
| “The tips we post are very accurate over the long term.” | Double chance, 11 Oct to 28 Oct 2026: 452 picks returned −4.7% at its own odds (95% range −9.3% to +1.6%). |
| “To reach our goal we only recommend bets that are manually picked and backed by data-driven algorithms.” | Double chance, 11 Oct to 28 Oct 2026: 452 picks returned −4.7% at its own odds (95% range −9.3% to +1.6%). |
| “FootballPredictions.com is trusted by over 400,000 visitors each month.” | We can only test what it publishes: 9,123 picks in our window. Alerts it left out of the record are not visible to us. |
“The tips we post are very accurate over the long term.”
- What we measured
- Double chance, 11 Oct to 28 Oct 2026: 452 picks returned −4.7% at its own odds (95% range −9.3% to +1.6%).
- What we measured
- Double chance, 11 Oct to 28 Oct 2026: 452 picks returned −4.7% at its own odds (95% range −9.3% to +1.6%).
“FootballPredictions.com is trusted by over 400,000 visitors each month.”
- What we measured
- We can only test what it publishes: 9,123 picks in our window. Alerts it left out of the record are not visible to us.
How we checked FootballPredictions's picks
Every pick on FootballPredictions's public results pages, 11 Oct to 28 Oct 2026: 2,991 graded picks in 7 markets, checked against the scores and closing odds we record.
The method in full
- What we collected
- Every pick on FootballPredictions's public results pages in the window, with the odds printed beside it and its result (9,123 rows read)
- Period
- 11 Oct to 28 Oct 2026 (18 days, by kick-off date)
- Sample
- 2,991 graded picks in 7 markets; 243 picks we could not match to a fixture are excluded; 5,803 picks in markets we could not test are counted and excluded
- Prices
- the decimal odds printed next to each tip on the match page (no bookmaker named; the page also carries bookmaker ads). Every tip row is a separate pick; a tip is graded at its printed odds when we first read it; as the second basis, the sharp close: the sharp closing line, with its margin removed
- Proof grade
- C: grade C because 7 of 3,077 picks (0.2%) were first seen after kick-off or edited later; the other 3,070 were first seen before kick-off by our own capture
- Pre-committed
- Site, window, markets and tests logged 2 Nov 2026, before the audit ran
FootballPredictions's history was read after the matches from its results pages; we did not capture it live, so the pages could have changed before we read them. Paid tiers were not tested. Break-even is computed pick by pick (the average of 1 ÷ odds). Every 95% range comes from a bootstrap that resamples whole days, because picks on the same day are linked. Voids and pushes return the stake and count as no bet; results are our fixture result over 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Sharp closing prices cover only part of Over/Under 1.5 goals (346 of 452). No sharp closing price for Both teams to score, Over/Under 4.5 goals. Left out: correct score, Asian/European handicap, half-time/full-time, clean sheet, goalscorer and card tips, because the shared audit has no sharp close or settlement for them; they are stored and counted, not graded. The window is 18 days of our own capture, under the 30 days our format asks for; our capture of its pages was repaired on 2 Nov 2026 and the data here ends on 28 Oct. We read each match page before kick-off and kept the first tip and price we saw. Grade C because 7 of 3,077 picks (0.2%) were first seen after kick-off or edited later; the other 3,070 were first seen before kick-off by our own capture. Every market has more than 5% of its picks unmatched to our fixtures (leagues we do not carry), and the site prints no result per tip, so those are excluded and every market is greyed: the figures on this page are the pooled ones. Over/Under 4.5 and both teams to score have no sharp close in our data, so the sharp-close figure covers 1,952 of the 2,991 graded tips. Past match pages are not a record, so we only count tips we read before kick-off. The full method is on our methodology page.
FootballPredictions results at its own odds
| Market | Picks | Win rate | Avg odds | Needed to break even | Return at its odds | 95% range | At the sharp close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw no bettoo few to read | 279 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 72.9% | −5.1%too few to read | −11.3% to +1.1% | −0.9%278 of 279 picks: too few to read |
| Double chance7.4% unmatched, read with care | 452 | 70.1% | 1.41 | 72.8% | −4.7%range −9.3% to +1.6% | −9.3% to +1.6% | +1.3% |
| Both teams to score7.4% unmatched, read with care | 452 | 54.0% | 1.70 | 59.9% | −9.5%range −13.5% to −2.9% | −13.5% to −2.9% | no sharp close |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 452 | 77.7% | 1.41 | 79.2% | −3.1%range −7.2% to +1.7% | −7.2% to +1.7% | −1.1%346 of 452 picks |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 452 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 57.8% | −4.1%range −12.4% to +5.7% | −12.4% to +5.7% | −2.9% |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 452 | 59.1% | 1.67 | 63.3% | −7.1%range −15.6% to +2.2% | −15.6% to +2.2% | −5.0% |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 452 | 78.1% | 1.25 | 82.5% | −5.1%range −11.6% to −1.3% | −11.6% to −1.3% | no sharp close |
| Market | Won | Needed | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw no bettoo few to read | 69.5% | 72.9% | −5.1%too few to read |
| Double chance7.4% unmatched, read with care | 70.1% | 72.8% | −4.7%range −9.3% to +1.6% |
| Both teams to score7.4% unmatched, read with care | 54.0% | 59.9% | −9.5%range −13.5% to −2.9% |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 77.7% | 79.2% | −3.1%range −7.2% to +1.7% |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 55.8% | 57.8% | −4.1%range −12.4% to +5.7% |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 59.1% | 63.3% | −7.1%range −15.6% to +2.2% |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals7.4% unmatched, read with care | 78.1% | 82.5% | −5.1%range −11.6% to −1.3% |
Source: FootballPredictions results pages, graded by us. Rows under 300 picks greyed; rows with over 5% unmatched picks marked read with care.
Each market has 452 or fewer graded picks and about 7% of its picks could not be matched to our fixtures, so none is read on its own; the pooled row is the fairest summary. The printed odds were usually below the best price in the books we record: the median Over/Under 2.5 price was 4.2% under the best one, which only means better prices were available elsewhere; the printed price is the one we graded. Both teams to score was the clearest loser at −9.5% (95% range −13.5% to −2.9%); double chance returned −4.7% (95% range −9.3% to +1.6%), a range that includes winning. At the sharp close the 1,952 tips with a close returned −1.8% (95% range −5.0% to +2.6%), a range that includes winning.
No market has under 5% unmatched picks in this window, so there is no profit and loss chart: a line drawn from picks we could not all match would mislead.
Did FootballPredictions beat the closing odds?
FootballPredictions's odds: capture time unknown, read after the matches (proof grade C). A tipster who beats the close is finding prices; one who doesn't is following them.
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| Market | Picks matched to a sharp close | Mean CLV | 95% range | Picks beating the fair close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw no bettoo few to read | 278 | −5.0% | −5.8% to −4.0% | 13.7% |
| Double chance | 451 | −5.4% | −6.0% to −5.0% | 7.1% |
| Both teams to scoretoo few to read | 0 | no sharp close | n/a | n/a |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 346 | −3.6% | −4.2% to −3.1% | 11.0% |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 438 | −5.0% | −5.6% to −4.4% | 16.0% |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 439 | −5.0% | −5.6% to −4.3% | 14.6% |
| Over/Under 4.5 goalstoo few to read | 0 | no sharp close | n/a | n/a |
- Draw no bet · 278 matched · too few to read
Double chance
Mean CLV
−5.4%
−6.0% to −5.0%
- Picks matched to a sharp close
- 451
- Picks beating the fair close
- 7.1%
- Both teams to score · 0 matched · too few to read
Over/Under 1.5 goals
Mean CLV
−3.6%
−4.2% to −3.1%
- Picks matched to a sharp close
- 346
- Picks beating the fair close
- 11.0%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Mean CLV
−5.0%
−5.6% to −4.4%
- Picks matched to a sharp close
- 438
- Picks beating the fair close
- 16.0%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
Mean CLV
−5.0%
−5.6% to −4.3%
- Picks matched to a sharp close
- 439
- Picks beating the fair close
- 14.6%
- Over/Under 4.5 goals · 0 matched · too few to read
Mean CLV = the expected return at the fair close. CLV per pick = its odds × the sharp close's fair probability − 1 (margin removed by the Shin method for three outcomes, the power method for two). The share beating the close is descriptive only. Source: FootballPredictions results pages, graded by us. Rows under 300 picks greyed; rows with over 5% unmatched picks marked read with care.
Could you get its printed price?
| Market | Picks checked | Within the tolerance of the best price offered | More than 1.5× every book | Median against the best price | Against its reference book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 453 | 99.1% | 0.0% | −2.6% | n/a |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 453 | 99.6% | 0.0% | −4.2% | n/a |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 453 | 99.6% | 0.0% | −4.6% | n/a |
Over/Under 1.5 goals
Within the tolerance of the best price offered
99.1%
- Picks checked
- 453
- More than 1.5× every book
- 0.0%
- Median against the best price
- −2.6%
- Against its reference book
- n/a
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Within the tolerance of the best price offered
99.6%
- Picks checked
- 453
- More than 1.5× every book
- 0.0%
- Median against the best price
- −4.2%
- Against its reference book
- n/a
Over/Under 3.5 goals
Within the tolerance of the best price offered
99.6%
- Picks checked
- 453
- More than 1.5× every book
- 0.0%
- Median against the best price
- −4.6%
- Against its reference book
- n/a
Best price = the highest price any of the bookmakers we record offered on the same pick in the 48 hours before kick-off (median 11 books recorded per fixture, so where it is 1 this check is weak; exchanges excluded), with a 2% tolerance.
Is it skill? FootballPredictions against a no-analysis rule
On each day FootballPredictions published picks, the rule takes the same number of picks, choosing whichever outcome the sharp closing odds made most likely. No form, no team news, no model. Both sides are priced at the sharp close, so each side counts only the picks with a sharp closing price, and the two counts can differ.
Read more
| Market | Its picks | Its win rate | Its odds | Its return | Rule picks | Rule win rate | Rule odds | Rule return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw no bettoo few to read | 278 | 69.4% | 1.52 | −0.9%too few to read | 176 | 90.9% | 1.13 | +1.8%too few to read |
| Double chance | 451 | 70.3% | 1.50 | +1.3% | 277 | 91.7% | 1.11 | +1.5%too few to read |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 346 | 76.3% | 1.50 | −1.1% | 202 | 80.7% | 1.17 | −6.3%too few to read |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 438 | 54.6% | 1.85 | −2.9% | 270 | 68.5% | 1.39 | −5.4%too few to read |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 439 | 58.5% | 1.72 | −5.0% | 262 | 76.3% | 1.29 | −2.5%too few to read |
- Draw no bet · 278 vs 176 picks · too few to read
Double chance
Its return
+1.3%
Rule return
+1.5%too few to read
- Its picks
- 451
- Rule picks
- 277
- Its win rate
- 70.3%
- Rule win rate
- 91.7%
- Its odds
- 1.50
- Rule odds
- 1.11
Over/Under 1.5 goals
Its return
−1.1%
Rule return
−6.3%too few to read
- Its picks
- 346
- Rule picks
- 202
- Its win rate
- 76.3%
- Rule win rate
- 80.7%
- Its odds
- 1.50
- Rule odds
- 1.17
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Its return
−2.9%
Rule return
−5.4%too few to read
- Its picks
- 438
- Rule picks
- 270
- Its win rate
- 54.6%
- Rule win rate
- 68.5%
- Its odds
- 1.85
- Rule odds
- 1.39
Over/Under 3.5 goals
Its return
−5.0%
Rule return
−2.5%too few to read
- Its picks
- 439
- Rule picks
- 262
- Its win rate
- 58.5%
- Rule win rate
- 76.3%
- Its odds
- 1.72
- Rule odds
- 1.29
Returns at the sharp close. Caveat: the rule chooses with kick-off prices, so it shows what a win rate is made of, not a strategy, and nobody has kick-off prices when a tip is published.
One real day of FootballPredictions picks
| Match | League | Pick | Odds | Sharp close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz v Werder Bremen | Bundesliga (Germany) | Draw no bet: Mainz to Win | 1.30 | 1.38 | 2–3 | Lost |
| Borussia Dortmund v Frankfurt | Bundesliga (Germany) | Draw no bet: Borussia Dortmund to Win | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1–0 | Won |
| Leipzig v Elversberg | Bundesliga (Germany) | Draw no bet: RB Leipzig to Win | 1.17 | 1.28 | 4–0 | Won |
| Borussia Dortmund v Frankfurt | Bundesliga (Germany) | Double chance: 12 | 1.17 | 1.21 | 1–0 | Won |
| Mainz v Werder Bremen | Bundesliga (Germany) | Double chance: 12 | 1.22 | 1.30 | 2–3 | Won |
| Koln v Schalke | Bundesliga (Germany) | Double chance: 1X | 1.33 | 1.43 | 0–0 | Won |
Mainz v Werder Bremen
Result
Lost
- League
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- Pick
- Draw no bet: Mainz to Win
- Odds
- 1.30
- Sharp close
- 1.38
- Score
- 2–3
Borussia Dortmund v Frankfurt
Result
Won
- League
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- Pick
- Draw no bet: Borussia Dortmund to Win
- Odds
- 1.20
- Sharp close
- 1.19
- Score
- 1–0
Leipzig v Elversberg
Result
Won
- League
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- Pick
- Draw no bet: RB Leipzig to Win
- Odds
- 1.17
- Sharp close
- 1.28
- Score
- 4–0
Borussia Dortmund v Frankfurt
Result
Won
- League
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- Pick
- Double chance: 12
- Odds
- 1.17
- Sharp close
- 1.21
- Score
- 1–0
Mainz v Werder Bremen
Result
Won
- League
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- Pick
- Double chance: 12
- Odds
- 1.22
- Sharp close
- 1.30
- Score
- 2–3
Koln v Schalke
Result
Won
- League
- Bundesliga (Germany)
- Pick
- Double chance: 1X
- Odds
- 1.33
- Sharp close
- 1.43
- Score
- 0–0
The full card that day held 545 graded picks, 344 of them won. Source: FootballPredictions results.
FootballPredictions scorecard: who it's for
Shows the odds for every pick
YesOdds printed beside 100.0% of the picks we graded, in every tested market.
Shows profit or loss
NoProfitable at its own odds
Not testedUntested market by market: all seven markets are greyed (over 5% of picks unmatched), judged at its printed odds. Pooled, the 2,991 tips returned −5.5% (95% range −7.9% to −2.5%). Over/Under 2.5 returned −4.1% (95% range −12.4% to +5.7%).
Beats the closing odds
UnreliableFootballPredictions's odds were read after the matches (proof grade C), so the capture time is unknown and this row cannot pass. The CLV table above is printed for reference only.
Beats a no-analysis rule
Not testedNo busy market to compare; the smaller markets are shown above, greyed.
Published record matches its picks
Not testedNot compared.
Proof grade
Grade Cgrade C because 7 of 3,077 picks (0.2%) were first seen after kick-off or edited later; the other 3,070 were first seen before kick-off by our own capture
What it does well
- It names its operator, is free to read without an account and prints odds and a probability beside every tip.
- 99.8% of the picks we captured were on its match pages before kick-off, and none was added after kick-off; 7 of 3,077 were first seen late or edited (4 edited after kick-off).
- Its printed Over/Under 2.5 odds were not more than 2% above the best price we hold on 99.6% of picks, so the prices are not inflated.
Who it's for: Readers who want a free, broad list of tips with a stated probability and who use it as a starting point, not a system.
Who should skip it: Anyone expecting the tips to pay at the odds it prints: in our test they returned below zero at those odds, pooled and in each market (none of which is large enough to read alone).
Is FootballPredictions legit? Our verdict
It is a real site with a named operator, AdBrothers B.V. We did not contact FootballPredictions.
−5.5% at its printed odds (2,991 tips, 18 days). Every market is greyed (over 5% unmatched), so this is the pooled figure, not a market-by-market one.
A short window; the re-check on a full 30 days can change this.
Our own picks, same test
The same window and the same columns, for two lines of ours: every settled pre-match pick of every bot on /performance at the price we published, and the subset posted to our public Telegram channel before kick-off. Our picks are in different markets at different odds, so this compares what a reader of each got, not two models on the same games.
Ours, same window: +7.1% (1,268, all) and +10.3% (422, Telegram).
Our numbers, the full table
| Line | Proof | Picks | Win rate | Avg odds | Break-even | Return | 95% range | At the sharp close | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every pick on /performance | C | 1,268 | 55.3% | 2.03 | 51.8% | +7.1% | +2.9% to +12.8% | −0.4% | +2.6% |
| Posted to Telegram before kick-off | B | 422 | 57.6% | 1.99 | 52.5% | +10.3% | +3.7% to +16.9% | +5.0% | +1.9% |
Every pick on /performance
Return
+7.1%
+2.9% to +12.8%
- Proof
- C
- Picks
- 1,268
- Win rate
- 55.3%
- Avg odds
- 2.03
- Break-even
- 51.8%
- At the sharp close
- −0.4%
- CLV
- +2.6%
Posted to Telegram before kick-off
Return
+10.3%
+3.7% to +16.9%
- Proof
- B
- Picks
- 422
- Win rate
- 57.6%
- Avg odds
- 1.99
- Break-even
- 52.5%
- At the sharp close
- +5.0%
- CLV
- +1.9%
Every settled pre-match pick of every bot on /performance, at the published price; the subset posted to our public Telegram channel before kick-off. Flat stake, break-even per pick, CLV against the de-vigged sharp close by the same method as above. 99.4% of the /performance picks were sealed before kick-off.
How to check any tipster in 30 seconds
The five checks
- 1
Ask for the odds
No odds, no verdict. A win rate on its own can't be checked.
- 2
Work out the break-even
1 ÷ odds for each pick, then the average. At odds of 1.25 you need to win 80% of the time. Is the win rate above it?
- 3
Check the sample
A few hundred picks prove little. Thousands start to.
- 4
Check the price you would get
Quoted odds you can't find at your own bookmaker don't count.
- 5
Check it against the close
Did the picks get better odds than the market settled on at kick-off? That is the sign of finding prices, not following them.
FootballPredictions FAQ
FAQ (6)
Is FootballPredictions legit?
Is FootballPredictions a scam?
What are FootballPredictions's real results?
Is FootballPredictions's paid tier worth it?
How did we measure this?
How accurate is FootballPredictions?
Sources and archived copies
Show the sources
- 1.FootballPredictions: homepage: read 2 Nov 2026; the operator, its method statement and its audience claim
- 2.FootballPredictions: betting tips: read 2 Nov 2026; its accuracy statement and the tip list
- 3.Ledger file: every number on this page: generated 2 Nov 2026
No archived copies (Wayback Machine, archive.ph) were made of these pages.
Updates, corrections and right of reply
Published 2 Nov 2026. We did not contact FootballPredictions. Re-check due once our capture, repaired on 2 Nov 2026, covers 30 days. Spot an error? Tell us on Telegram and we will correct it and note the change here.
The Price Check #8 · More from The Price Check →