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The Price Check · #4

NerdyTips review: 66.6% claimed wins, −3.5% at its own odds

Margus Sellin2 Nov 2026Grade C · 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026

Our verdict

−3.5%

all tested markets · 9,161 picks · 10 Oct – 2 Nov · at its own odds, unverified Why

We sell picks too. Its record was read after the matches.

More
OddsIntel sells a paid VIP Telegram channel of its own picks, so we compete with NerdyTips. Our own numbers face the same test below. NerdyTips's history was read from its public pages after the matches (proof grade C).
picks tested
9,161
picks tested
its claimed win rate
66.6%
its claimed win rate
at the sharp close
−2.7%
at the sharp close

€10 on each Over/Under 2.5 tip in 24 days: −€1,085 at its prices (past results, illustration only). This is a 24-day window, shorter than the 30 days our format asks for.

What is NerdyTips? Price, tiers and claims

In short: a model-based predictions site that publishes win rates, not returns. It says so itself.

Read more

NerdyTipssells "AI football predictions" from a model it calls NT Apex: for each match a result tip, a goals line, both teams to score and a best tip, each with printed odds and a trust score out of 10. It is run by KickOff Ventures LLC (Delaware, the name in its footer). Free: 6 tips a day, no account. Paid plans run from €9.99 for one month to €35.99 for six, with a 3-day money-back guarantee. We tested the tips it shows to everyone after full time, which include the paid ones.

We tested one pick per match, its best tip, because that is the tip its own win-rate claim measures. Its other three tips per match are not tested. These are its claims:

What the site says, next to what we measured

How we checked NerdyTips's picks

Every pick on NerdyTips's public results pages, 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026: 9,161 graded picks in 6 markets, checked against the scores and closing odds we record.

The method in full
What we collected
Every pick on NerdyTips's public results pages in the window, with the odds printed beside it and its result (9,705 rows read)
Period
10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026 (24 days, by kick-off date)
Sample
9,161 graded picks in 6 markets; 1,012 picks we could not match to our fixtures (mostly leagues we do not carry). In Match result (1X2) and Double chance and Over/Under 1.5 goals and Over/Under 2.5 goals and Over/Under 3.5 goals and Both teams to score they count, graded by NerdyTips's own result, because its results agree with ours on 100% of the picks we can check in each (our rule: at least 97%); elsewhere they are excluded; 328 picks in markets we could not test are counted and excluded; 73 picks whose printed score differs from the game we matched (mostly a youth or reserve side with the same club names, or a cup tie where one of the two scores includes extra time) are treated as unmatched, never graded with the wrong game
Prices
the odds NerdyTips prints next to each tip (no bookmaker named). We test ONE pick per match, the site's 'best tip' (the tip its own 66.6 % claim measures, per its FAQ); its other three tips per match are stored (extra.other_tips) but not tested. The price of the picked outcome is graded; as the second basis, the sharp close: the sharp closing line, with its margin removed
Proof grade
C: read after the fact from its history pages
Pre-committed
Site, window, markets and tests logged 23 Oct 2026, before the audit ran

NerdyTips's history was read after the matches from its results pages; we did not capture it live, so the pages could have changed before we read them. Paid tiers were not tested. Break-even is computed pick by pick (the average of 1 ÷ odds). Every 95% range comes from a bootstrap that resamples whole days, because picks on the same day are linked. Voids and pushes return the stake and count as no bet; results are our fixture result over 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Sharp closing prices cover only part of Match result (1X2) (1,448 of 1,691), Double chance (2,102 of 2,482), Over/Under 1.5 goals (473 of 805), Over/Under 2.5 goals (1,908 of 2,524), Over/Under 3.5 goals (650 of 1,298). No sharp closing price for Both teams to score. The window is 24 days, under the 30 days our format asks for; the re-check on or after 10 Nov 2026 covers the full 30. Its tips for upcoming matches are locked except about six a day, so only 1.6% of the 8,147 tips we matched to a fixture were on its pages before kick-off. For 6,754 of them we hold a read of that day's page from before kick-off that did not list the tip, and 89 changed after kick-off. Double chance and both-teams-to-score have no price check against the books we record. Both teams to score has no sharp close either, so it is left out of the sharp-close figures. The full method is on our methodology page.

NerdyTips results at its own odds

NerdyTips's tested markets, 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026
MarketWonNeededReturn
Match result (1X2)all picks65.5%65.5%−0.2%
of which matched to our fixtures66.1%65.4%+0.8%
Double chanceall picks69.4%73.1%−5.3%
of which matched to our fixtures70.0%73.1%−4.5%
Over/Under 1.5 goalsall picks74.4%76.9%−3.4%
of which matched to our fixtures75.1%77.0%−2.5%
Over/Under 2.5 goalsall picks64.0%66.9%−4.3%
of which matched to our fixtures64.7%66.8%−3.0%
Over/Under 3.5 goalsall picks70.3%73.3%−3.9%
of which matched to our fixtures70.1%73.2%−4.1%
Both teams to scoreall picks68.7%68.3%+0.9%
of which matched to our fixtures67.7%68.4%−0.9%

Source: NerdyTips results pages, graded by us. Rows under 300 picks greyed.

Between 9% and 13% of the tips in each market could not be matched to our fixtures; they count here, graded by its own result column, because that column agrees with the scores we record on 100.0% of the 8,147 picks we could check across the six markets. Both teams to score has 361 picks, which is thin: its 95% range (−9.4% to +8.1%) includes both a loss and a win.

Profit day by day (chart)
€10 flat on every pick, past results, illustration only: cumulative profit and loss, 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026
10 Oct2 Nov
  • Match result (1X2)−€40
  • Double chance−€1,321
  • Over/Under 1.5 goals−€274
  • Over/Under 2.5 goals−€1,085
  • Over/Under 3.5 goals−€511
  • Both teams to score€32

€10 flat on every pick at NerdyTips's printed odds, past results, illustration only. Source: NerdyTips results pages, graded by us. Rows under 300 picks greyed.

Did NerdyTips beat the closing odds?

NerdyTips's odds: capture time unknown, read after the matches (proof grade C). A tipster who beats the close is finding prices; one who doesn't is following them.

Read more
NerdyTips against the de-vigged sharp close (capture time unknown: unreliable)
  • Match result (1X2)

    Mean CLV

    −2.7%

    −3.0% to −2.4%

    Picks matched to a sharp close
    1,448
    Picks beating the fair close
    27.0%
  • Double chance

    Mean CLV

    −4.8%

    −5.0% to −4.5%

    Picks matched to a sharp close
    2,102
    Picks beating the fair close
    9.4%
  • Over/Under 1.5 goals

    Mean CLV

    −2.3%

    −2.7% to −2.0%

    Picks matched to a sharp close
    473
    Picks beating the fair close
    14.4%
  • Over/Under 2.5 goals

    Mean CLV

    −4.4%

    −4.7% to −4.1%

    Picks matched to a sharp close
    1,908
    Picks beating the fair close
    11.1%
  • Over/Under 3.5 goals

    Mean CLV

    −3.6%

    −4.0% to −3.2%

    Picks matched to a sharp close
    650
    Picks beating the fair close
    12.2%
  • Both teams to score · 0 matched · too few to read
  • Busy markets together

    Mean CLV

    −3.9%

    −4.0% to −3.8%

    Picks matched to a sharp close
    6,263
    Picks beating the fair close
    14.4%

Mean CLV = the expected return at the fair close. CLV per pick = its odds × the sharp close's fair probability − 1 (margin removed by the Shin method for three outcomes, the power method for two). The share beating the close is descriptive only. Source: NerdyTips results pages, graded by us. Rows under 300 picks greyed.

Could you get its printed price?

NerdyTips's printed odds against the prices bookmakers offered before kick-off
  • Match result (1X2)

    Within the tolerance of the best price offered

    96.9%

    Picks checked
    1,628
    More than 1.5× every book
    0.0%
    Median against the best price
    −3.4%
    Against its reference book
    n/a
  • Over/Under 1.5 goals

    Within the tolerance of the best price offered

    97.2%

    Picks checked
    758
    More than 1.5× every book
    0.0%
    Median against the best price
    −1.0%
    Against its reference book
    n/a
  • Over/Under 2.5 goals

    Within the tolerance of the best price offered

    98.0%

    Picks checked
    2,385
    More than 1.5× every book
    0.0%
    Median against the best price
    −2.8%
    Against its reference book
    n/a
  • Over/Under 3.5 goals

    Within the tolerance of the best price offered

    98.1%

    Picks checked
    1,199
    More than 1.5× every book
    0.0%
    Median against the best price
    −1.5%
    Against its reference book
    n/a

Best price = the highest price any of the bookmakers we record offered on the same pick in the 48 hours before kick-off (median 9 books recorded per fixture, so where it is 1 this check is weak; exchanges excluded), with a 2% tolerance.

Is it skill? NerdyTips against a no-analysis rule

On each day NerdyTips published picks, the rule takes the same number of picks, choosing whichever outcome the sharp closing odds made most likely. No form, no team news, no model. Both sides are priced at the sharp close, so each side counts only the picks with a sharp closing price, and the two counts can differ.

Read more
Same days, picks with a sharp close: the site against a no-analysis rule
  • Match result (1X2)

    Its return

    −1.8%

    Rule return

    −1.0%

    Its picks
    1,372
    Rule picks
    725
    Its win rate
    66.0%
    Rule win rate
    74.3%
    Its odds
    1.53
    Rule odds
    1.35
  • Double chance

    Its return

    −0.1%

    Rule return

    +1.7%

    Its picks
    1,994
    Rule picks
    1,102
    Its win rate
    70.0%
    Rule win rate
    87.8%
    Its odds
    1.46
    Rule odds
    1.16
  • Over/Under 1.5 goals

    Its return

    −4.5%

    Rule return

    −0.6%too few to read

    Its picks
    456
    Rule picks
    248
    Its win rate
    72.8%
    Rule win rate
    87.5%
    Its odds
    1.32
    Rule odds
    1.14
  • Over/Under 2.5 goals

    Its return

    −3.8%

    Rule return

    −6.3%

    Its picks
    1,820
    Rule picks
    1,002
    Its win rate
    62.9%
    Rule win rate
    65.9%
    Its odds
    1.54
    Rule odds
    1.43
  • Over/Under 3.5 goals

    Its return

    −4.9%

    Rule return

    −1.0%

    Its picks
    621
    Rule picks
    330
    Its win rate
    67.2%
    Rule win rate
    79.4%
    Its odds
    1.43
    Rule odds
    1.25

Returns at the sharp close. Caveat: the rule chooses with kick-off prices, so it shows what a win rate is made of, not a strategy, and nobody has kick-off prices when a tip is published.

One real day of NerdyTips picks

NerdyTips's card, 24 Oct 2026 (selected rows)
  • Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt

    Result

    Won

    League
    Bundesliga (Germany)
    Pick
    Match result (1X2): 1
    Odds
    1.45
    Sharp close
    1.41
    Score
    1–0
  • RB Leipzig v Elversberg

    Result

    Won

    League
    Bundesliga (Germany)
    Pick
    Match result (1X2): 1
    Odds
    1.56
    Sharp close
    1.54
    Score
    4–0
  • FC Augsburg v Union Berlin

    Result

    Won

    League
    Bundesliga (Germany)
    Pick
    Double chance: 1X
    Odds
    1.24
    Sharp close
    1.26
    Score
    1–1
  • SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV

    Result

    Won

    League
    Bundesliga (Germany)
    Pick
    Double chance: 1X
    Odds
    1.39
    Sharp close
    1.41
    Score
    1–0
  • 1. FC Koln v FC Schalke 04

    Result

    Won

    League
    Bundesliga (Germany)
    Pick
    Double chance: 1X
    Odds
    1.39
    Sharp close
    1.43
    Score
    0–0
  • FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen

    Result

    Won

    League
    Bundesliga (Germany)
    Pick
    Over/Under 2.5 goals: O2.5
    Odds
    1.52
    Sharp close
    1.53
    Score
    2–3

The full card that day held 898 graded picks, 610 of them won. Source: NerdyTips results.

NerdyTips scorecard: who it's for

Shows the odds for every pick

Yes

Odds printed beside 100.0% of the picks we graded, in every tested market.

Shows profit or loss

No

Profitable at its own odds

Mixed

Six markets, judged at its printed odds with the range widened for six markets (both teams to score is thin at 361 picks). Over/Under 2.5 returned −4.3% (95% range −7.0% to −1.5%); double chance −5.3% (95% range −8.0% to −2.8%). Odds were read after the matches (grade C).

Beats the closing odds

Unreliable

NerdyTips's odds were read after the matches (proof grade C), so the capture time is unknown and this row cannot pass. The CLV table above is printed for reference only.

Beats a no-analysis rule

Mixed

Return against the no-analysis rule at the same prices, busy markets.

Published record matches its picks

Yes

Match result (1X2): its result column 66.1% wins, our grading 66.1% (all 1,498 picks agree); Double chance: its result column 70.0% wins, our grading 70.0% (all 2,206 picks agree); Over/Under 1.5 goals: its result column 75.2% wins, our grading 75.2% (all 730 picks agree); Over/Under 2.5 goals: its result column 64.8% wins, our grading 64.8% (all 2,250 picks agree); Over/Under 3.5 goals: its result column 70.1% wins, our grading 70.1% (all 1,150 picks agree); Both teams to score: its result column 67.7% wins, our grading 67.7% (all 313 picks agree). Verdict uses busy markets only.

Proof grade

Grade C

read after the fact from its history pages

What it does well

  • It names its operator, shows odds beside every tip and says plainly that its record is win rates, not profit.
  • Its own won or lost marks matched our grading on 100.0% of the 8,147 picks we could check.
  • Its printed 1X2 odds were no more than 2% above the best price we hold on 96.9% of 1,628 picks (the median was 3.4% below the best).

Who it's for: Readers who want a free daily list of model tips and understand that a high win rate is not a profit.

Who should skip it: Anyone expecting the tips to pay at the odds it prints: in our test, double chance and Over/Under 2.5 lost, with 95% ranges below zero even after the widening for six markets.

Is NerdyTips legit? Our verdict

Is NerdyTips legit? It is a real site with a named operator, and its won or lost marks matched ours on all 8,147 picks we could check.

−3.5% at its printed odds (9,161 tips, 24 days); −2.7% at the sharp close. The no-analysis rule (a benchmark, not a strategy) beat the site in four of the five markets with a baseline; ranges overlap, so this shows no sign of skill, which is not proof there is none.

Treat it as a free list of likely winners, not a way to make money; check other books before staking.

Our own picks, same test

The same window and the same columns, for two lines of ours: every settled pre-match pick of every bot on /performance at the price we published, and the subset posted to our public Telegram channel before kick-off. Our picks are in different markets at different odds, so this compares what a reader of each got, not two models on the same games.

Ours, same window: +6.4% (1,719, all) and +12.4% (620, Telegram).

Our numbers, the full table
OddsIntel picks, 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026
  • Every pick on /performance

    Return

    +6.4%

    +2.4% to +11.0%

    Proof
    C
    Picks
    1,719
    Win rate
    55.0%
    Avg odds
    2.03
    Break-even
    51.8%
    At the sharp close
    +0.0%
    CLV
    +2.4%
  • Posted to Telegram before kick-off

    Return

    +12.4%

    +7.6% to +17.9%

    Proof
    B
    Picks
    620
    Win rate
    58.2%
    Avg odds
    2.00
    Break-even
    52.4%
    At the sharp close
    +5.3%
    CLV
    +1.8%

Every settled pre-match pick of every bot on /performance, at the published price; the subset posted to our public Telegram channel before kick-off. Flat stake, break-even per pick, CLV against the de-vigged sharp close by the same method as above. 99.3% of the /performance picks were sealed before kick-off.

How to check any tipster in 30 seconds

The five checks
  1. 1

    Ask for the odds

    No odds, no verdict. A win rate on its own can't be checked.

  2. 2

    Work out the break-even

    1 ÷ odds for each pick, then the average. At odds of 1.25 you need to win 80% of the time. Is the win rate above it?

  3. 3

    Check the sample

    A few hundred picks prove little. Thousands start to.

  4. 4

    Check the price you would get

    Quoted odds you can't find at your own bookmaker don't count.

  5. 5

    Check it against the close

    Did the picks get better odds than the market settled on at kick-off? That is the sign of finding prices, not following them.

NerdyTips FAQ

FAQ (6)
Is NerdyTips legit?
Yes, it is a real site. NerdyTips is run by KickOff Ventures LLC (named in its footer) and shows a best tip per match with printed odds. Its own won or lost marks matched our grading on all 8,147 picks we could check (of 9,161 tested). Its best tips returned −3.5% at those odds (95% range −5.0% to −2.0%), read after the matches. We did not contact NerdyTips.
Is NerdyTips a scam?
We did not assess whether it is a scam. We saw that it names its operator, that its won or lost marks matched our grading on all 8,147 picks we could check, and that its printed odds were no more than 2% above the best price we hold on 96.9% or more of the picks we could check in 1X2 and the over/under markets. It says its record shows win rates, not profit.
What are NerdyTips's real results?
Over 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026, its 9,161 best tips returned −3.5% at its printed odds (95% range −5.0% to −2.0%) and −2.7% at the sharp close (6,581 tips, range −4.2% to −1.1%). Over/Under 2.5 goals, its busiest market with 2,524 picks, returned −4.3% (95% range −7.1% to −1.5%). We read its pages after the matches.
Is NerdyTips's paid tier worth it?
We did not test it as a subscriber. The tips we tested are the ones its public pages show to everyone after full time; its paid plans start at €9.99 for one month, with a 3-day money-back guarantee.
How did we measure this?
We read the best tip for every match on its public pages for 10 Oct to 2 Nov 2026 after the matches, matched them to the fixtures and closing odds we record, and graded them at its printed odds and at the sharp close (a sharp benchmark's closing line). We did not contact NerdyTips. Every number is in the ledger file linked under Sources.
How accurate are NerdyTips predictions?
It claims 66.6% of its 287,254 matches since May 2021 finished as forecast. In our 24 days its best tips won 67.7%, but they needed 70.2% to break even at the odds it prints, so they returned −3.5%. A win rate is not a profit rate.

Sources and archived copies

Show the sources
  1. 1.NerdyTips: homepage: read 23 Oct and 2 Nov 2026; plans, free tips per day, its win-rate claims and the operator in the footer · archived copy of NerdyTips: homepage (opens in new tab)
  2. 2.NerdyTips: progress: read 23 Oct 2026; its record definition (correct tips divided by settled tips) · archived copy of NerdyTips: progress (opens in new tab)
  3. 3.Ledger file: every number on this page: generated 2 Nov 2026

Both pages read on 23 Oct 2026 (the homepage again on 2 Nov); each archived copy is a Wayback Machine snapshot taken 2 November 2026, so it shows the page on that day, not on the day we first read it. archive.ph was not used.

Updates, corrections and right of reply

Published 2 Nov 2026. We did not contact NerdyTips before publishing. It is welcome to respond; any reply will be published here in full. Re-check due on or after 10 Nov 2026 (full 30-day window). Spot an error? Tell us in our Telegram channel and we will correct it and note the change here.

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