France vs Italy: goals at both ends, and France have more of them
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group A · Matchday 3
France
20:45
Italy
- Kick-off
- Fri 2 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Venue to be confirmed
Our call
France to win
Our score: France 2–1 Italy
Both sides have scored in nine of their last ten games, so we expect goals at both ends. France score more of them, 2.2 a game to Italy's 1.8, and they are at home.
Medium confidence: we'd expect France to win about half the time. Logged 30 Sep, 08:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé scored 17 of France's 22 goals in their last ten, and neither started Monday's win in Belgium.
- Francesco Pio Esposito has five goals in Italy's last ten. No other Italy player has more than three in our data.
- France top the group with two 1–0 wins and no goals conceded. A win puts them six points clear of Italy.
The story
Francesco Pio Esposito has five goals in Italy's last ten games, and on Monday he led the line in a 4–1 win in Türkiye. On Friday Italy meet a France side that has not conceded in two games since the World Cup, and Italy have scored in nine of their last ten.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 2Belgium | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3Italy | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
A France win puts them six points clear of Italy. OddsIntel match database, read 29 Sep 2026.
France won 1–0 in Türkiye and 1–0 in Belgium. Italy lost 2–0 at home to Belgium, then scored four in Türkiye. Over France's last ten games, Kylian Mbappé scored 11 and Ousmane Dembélé 6 of their 22 goals. Neither was in the starting XI in Belgium on Monday, and our data does not say why, so we won't guess.
This is where we think it is decided: both sides score, and France score more. Italy have scored in nine of their last ten, and so have France, but France average 2.2 goals a game to Italy's 1.8, and they found a winner in Belgium without their two top scorers in the starting XI.
Form
France
- Latest · 28 SepW1–0at BELNL
- 25 SepW1–0at TURNL
- 18 JulL4–6v ENGWC
- 14 JulL0–2v ESPWC
- 9 JulW2–0v MARWC
Three wins, two defeats, 8 scored and 8 conceded. All eight goals against came in the two World Cup defeats; the two Nations League games since are clean sheets.
Italy
- Latest · 28 SepW4–1at TURNL
- 25 SepL0–2v BELNL
- 7 JunW1–0at GREFriendly
- 3 JunW1–0at LUXFriendly
- 31 MarD1–1at BIHWC qual
Three wins, a draw and a defeat, 7 scored and 4 conceded. They scored in four of the five; Belgium are the only side to keep them out in their last ten.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues), NL = Nations League, WC qual = World Cup qualifier. OddsIntel match database, read 29 Sep 2026.
Team news
France
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Italy
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Our data feed carries no injury news for this game. That is not the same as no injuries, so we say nothing until it is confirmed.
Italy 4-3-3 · at Türkiye, 28 Sep
- Donnarumma
- KayodeScalviniBastoniRuggeri
- FrattesiTonaliFagioli
- RaspadoriF. Esposito (key battle)S. Esposito
- Barcola (key battle)LepaulDoué
- CamavingaDa CunhaAkliouche
- A. DioufLacroixJacquetKalulu
- Maignan
France 4-3-3 · at Belgium, 28 Sep
The key battle, and who else to watch
The key battle
France
Bradley Barcola
Italy
Francesco Pio Esposito
- 3
- goals
- 5
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions
Barcola: started on the left in Belgium, and has more goals than any of France's other starters from Monday.
Esposito: led the line in Türkiye, and has five of Italy's goals in their last ten, the most our data credits to any Italy player.
Esposito is the finisher in form. Barcola is the top scorer among Monday's France starters, with three, and France also have Mbappé and Dembélé, 17 goals between them, who were not in that XI.
France
Kylian Mbappé
Not in Monday's starting XI. If he starts on Friday, France add their top scorer to a side that won without him in the XI.
- 11
- goals, France's last 10
Italy
Moise Kean
Not in Monday's starting XI either. His three goals in Italy's last ten are level with Mateo Retegui's in our data.
- 3
- goals, Italy's last 10
Goals in each team's last 10 games, all competitions; a player may not have played in all ten. OddsIntel match database, read 29 Sep 2026.
Head-to-head
Our database holds four meetings, back to 2008: two wins each. The last time Italy played in France, in September 2024, they won 3–1 in Paris. France won the return in Milan by the same score two months later.
Result for France
- 17 Nov 2024Italy v FranceNations League, Milan1–3W
- 6 Sep 2024France v ItalyNations League, Paris1–3L
- 1 Jun 2018France v ItalyFriendly, Nice3–1W
- 17 Jun 2008France v ItalyEuro 20080–2L
Every meeting our database holds (four), whatever their age. OddsIntel match database, read 29 Sep 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: France 2.2, Italy 1.8 (higher is better)
The gap behind our call: France have scored 22 in their last ten, Italy 18.
Goals conceded, Nations League · fewer is better: France 0.0, Italy 3.0 (lower is better)
France have kept two clean sheets since the World Cup. Italy conceded two at home to Belgium and one in Türkiye.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: France 1.0, Italy 0.9 (lower is better)
Over ten games Italy have been slightly tighter. France's figure is lifted by their last two World Cup games, where they conceded eight.
Last ten games each, all competitions, except the Nations League row (two games each). OddsIntel match database, read 29 Sep 2026.
Our call, explained
We have France winning 2–1. Italy have scored in nine of their last ten, and Esposito is in form, so we don't expect a third France clean sheet in a row. France have scored in nine of their last ten as well, they score more per game, they are at home, and they won in Belgium without Mbappé or Dembélé in the starting XI.
The risk to this call is on both sides. If France's defence holds as it did in Türkiye and Belgium, Italy may not score at all. If Italy defend the way they have over ten games, conceding 0.9 a game, France may not get a second. If we're wrong, we think a draw is likelier than an Italy win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: team news once it is confirmed, the confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and the result after full time.