Germany vs Serbia: Serbia keep conceding, and Germany need a win
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group B · Matchday 3
Germany
20:45
Serbia
- Kick-off
- Thu 1 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Allianz Arena, Munich
Our call
Germany win
Our score: Germany 2–1 Serbia
Serbia have conceded in all of their last nine games, 20 goals in all. Germany have not won in four, but we expect them to score twice against this defence and concede once.
Medium confidence: we'd expect Germany to win about half the time. Logged 30 Sep, 21:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Germany have not won in four games. Their last win was 2–1 against Ivory Coast at the World Cup in June.
- Serbia have conceded in each of their last nine games, 20 goals in all, and lost four of their last five.
- Germany have one point and Serbia none after two games. A Germany win takes them to four.
The story
Germany have not won in four games, and lost 1–0 at home to Greece on Sunday. On Thursday in Munich they meet a Serbia side who have lost four of their last five and conceded in all of their last nine, 20 goals in all.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Greece | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 2Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 3Germany | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4Serbia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Germany have one point and Serbia none, both behind Greece and the Netherlands. A Germany win takes them to four. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Germany drew 1–1 in the Netherlands, then lost to Greece. Serbia lost 2–1 at home to both. Germany's leading scorers over their last ten were not in Sunday's starting XI: Deniz Undav (6), Kai Havertz (5), Florian Wirtz (3), Leroy Sané and Jamal Musiala (2 each) have 18 of Germany's 24 goals in that run. Our data does not say why they did not start, so we won't guess.
This is where we think it is decided: Serbia concede. They have let in 2.2 goals a game over their last nine and kept no clean sheet. Germany have scored only five in their last five, but they have scored in nine of their last ten, and against this defence we expect them to find two.
Form
Germany
- Latest · 27 SepL0–1v GRENL
- 24 SepD1–1at NEDNL
- 29 JunD1–1v PARWC
- 25 JunL1–2v ECUWC
- 20 JunW2–1v CIVWC
One win, two draws, two defeats, 5 scored and 6 conceded. No clean sheet in the five; the 2–1 against Ivory Coast in June is their last win.
Serbia
- Latest · 27 SepL1–2v NEDNL
- 24 SepL1–2v GRENL
- 5 JunL1–5at MEXFriendly
- 31 MayL0–3at CPVFriendly
- 31 MarW2–1v KSAFriendly
One win, four defeats, 5 scored and 13 conceded. They conceded in all five, and in all nine games our data holds for them.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues), NL = Nations League. Serbia: our data holds nine games back to October 2025, not ten. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Team news
Germany
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Serbia
No team news in our data yet. We will add it under Updates, not guess it.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Our data feed carries no injury news for this game. That is not the same as no injuries, so we say nothing until it is confirmed.
Serbia 5-4-1 · v Netherlands, 27 Sep
- V. Milinković-Savić
- NedeljkovićGudeljBabićPavlović (key battle)Terzić
- ŽivkovićStankovićLukićS. Milinković-Savić
- Joveljić
- Ebnoutalib
- SchadeContéAdeyemi
- KimmichNmecha (key battle)
- BrownTahBisseckVagnoman
- Nübel
Germany 4-2-3-1 · v Greece, 27 Sep
The key battle, and who else to watch
The key battle
Germany
Felix Nmecha
Serbia
Strahinja Pavlović
- 2
- goals
- 1
Goals in Germany's last 10 and Serbia's last 9 games (all our data holds for Serbia), all competitions
Nmecha: started in midfield against Greece, and has two of Germany's goals in their last ten. Undav, Havertz, Wirtz, Sané and Musiala, with as many or more, did not start.
Pavlović: started in Serbia's back five against the Netherlands. Serbia have conceded in all of their last nine games, and he has one of their goals in that run.
Germany did not score against Greece on Sunday, and their leading scorers did not start. Serbia have kept no clean sheet in nine games, so we think Germany find a way through.
Germany
Deniz Undav
Not in Sunday's starting XI, and our data does not say why. His six goals in Germany's last ten are more than any other Germany player.
- 6
- goals, Germany's last 10
Serbia
Aleksandar Mitrović
Not in Sunday's starting XI either. His two goals in Serbia's last nine are the most of any Serbia player in our data.
- 2
- goals, Serbia's last 9
Goals in Germany's last 10 and Serbia's last 9 games, all competitions; a player may not have played in all of them. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Head-to-head
Our database holds two meetings, back to 2010: one draw and one Serbia win. Serbia beat Germany 1–0 at the 2010 World Cup, and the last meeting, a friendly in Wolfsburg in 2019, ended 1–1.
Result for Germany
- 20 Mar 2019Germany v SerbiaFriendly, Wolfsburg1–1D
- 18 Jun 2010Germany v SerbiaWorld Cup, Port Elizabeth0–1L
Every meeting our database holds (two). OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Germany 2.4, Serbia 1.1 (higher is better)
Germany have scored 24 in their last ten, Serbia 10 in nine.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Germany 1.2, Serbia 2.2 (lower is better)
The gap behind our call: Serbia have conceded in all nine, 20 goals. Germany have conceded in nine of their last ten too, so we expect Serbia to score.
Wins: Germany 6.0, Serbia 3.0 (higher is better)
Germany won six of their last ten, but none of the last four. Serbia won three of nine and lost six.
Germany's last ten games, Serbia's last nine (all our data holds for them), all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 30 Sep 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Germany winning 2–1. Germany have not won in four and scored only five in their last five, but Serbia have conceded in each of their last nine games, 20 goals in all, and lost four of their last five. Germany have conceded in nine of their last ten, so we expect Serbia to score once.
The risk to this call is on both sides. Germany's leading scorers did not start on Sunday; if they are missing again, Germany may not score twice. Serbia have not lost to Germany in the two meetings we hold, and Germany keep conceding, so Serbia could score more than once. If we're wrong, we think a draw is likelier than a Serbia win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: team news once it is confirmed, the confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and the result after full time.