Greece vs Germany: Wirtz against Kourbelis, the man who beat Germany in Augsburg
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group B · Matchday 4
Greece
20:45
Germany
- Kick-off
- Sun 4 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Our call
A draw
Our score: Greece 1–1 Germany
Germany come without Undav and Havertz, and Greece without Tzolis. We think Wirtz finds one way past Kourbelis, and Greece answer once.
Low confidence: a lean towards neither side, closer to a coin flip than we'd like. Logged 3 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Greece beat Germany 1–0 in Augsburg on Sun 27 Sep and lead the group, unbeaten in three Nations League games.
- Deniz Undav and Kai Havertz scored 11 of Germany's 22 goals in their last ten games. Undav was not called up and Havertz went home injured.
- Without Undav and Havertz, Germany will find one goal at Toumba and no more.
The story
Dimitrios Kourbelis came off the bench in Augsburg and scored the only goal, and a week later Germany get their rematch. The Greek federation called that win historic. It also spoiled Jürgen Klopp's first home game as Germany coach, and on Sun 4 Oct the same two sides meet at the Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki with Greece top of the group.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Greece | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 2Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 3Germany | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4Serbia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
A Germany win pulls them level on seven; a Greece win puts them six clear of Germany. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
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Ivan Jovanović, Greece's coach since August 2024, has taken them through three group games without a defeat: 2–1 in Serbia, the win in Augsburg, then 2–2 with the Netherlands at Toumba on Thu 1 Oct. That last one stung. Greece led 2–0 at half-time, lost Christos Tzolis to an injury after 18 minutes, and conceded the equaliser in the 89th minute.
Jürgen Klopp took over Germany on 1 Sep, after a World Cup that ended on penalties against Paraguay. A draw in the Netherlands and the defeat to Greece came before his first win, 2–0 against Serbia in Munich on Thu 1 Oct, where Florian Wirtz and Tom Bischof scored. He has done it without his usual scorers. Klopp left Undav out of his squad, and Havertz and Jamal Musiala both went home injured after the trip to Amsterdam.
Greece's goals come from all over the side: at least six different players scored in their last ten, among them a left-back, Kostas Tsimikas, and a holding midfielder, Kourbelis. That spread matters now, because Tzolis is out, and Masouras showed against the Netherlands that he can step straight in.
We think it comes down to Wirtz against Kourbelis, in the pocket of space in front of Greece's back four. The kicker report from Augsburg said Wirtz, on as a substitute, had no influence on that game. Greece have kept three clean sheets in their last ten, and if Kourbelis shuts that space again, Germany have few other ways through.
Form
Greece
- Latest · 1 OctD2–2v NEDNL
- 27 SepW1–0at GERNL
- 24 SepW2–1at SRBNL
- 7 JunL0–1v ITAFriendly
- 4 JunD2–2at SWEFriendly
Two wins in five; 7 scored, 6 conceded.
Germany
- Latest · 1 OctW2–0v SRBNL
- 27 SepL0–1v GRENL
- 24 SepD1–1at NEDNL
- 29 JunD1–1v PARWC lost on pens 3–4
- 25 JunL1–2v ECUWC
One win in five; 5 scored, 5 conceded.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral), NL = Nations League; pens = shoot-out, not in the score. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Team news
Greece
- OutChristos Tzolis: Thigh strain after 18 minutes on Thu 1 Oct; left the squad and Dimitris Pelkas was called up (kicker, gazzetta.gr). Greece's top scorer in their last ten, so the goals must come from elsewhere.
- BackGiorgos Masouras: Fit and in the squad: on the bench on Thu 1 Oct, then replaced Tzolis and scored the second goal (HFF). The obvious starter in his place.
Germany
- OutDeniz Undav: Not called up; Klopp told kicker the decision is for now only. Germany lose their top scorer over the last ten.(reported)
- WithdrawnJamal Musiala: Thigh muscle tear in the warm-up in Amsterdam on Thu 24 Sep; left the squad (kicker, DFB).
- WithdrawnKai Havertz: Muscle injury against the Netherlands on Thu 24 Sep; left the squad (kicker, DFB). Woltemade led the line instead against Serbia.
- OutNico Schlotterbeck: Ankle injury in training, out of both October games (DFB). Thiaw and Anton started at centre-back against Serbia.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Fri 2 Oct 17:30 CEST: HFF (epo.gr), kicker, DFB, UEFA.com. Confirmed = federation or two outlets.
Germany 4-4-2 · v Serbia, 1 Oct
- Urbig
- TreuAntonThiawMittelstädt
- GnabryPavlovićBischofScherhant
- WoltemadeWirtz (key battle)
- IoannidisPavlidis
- TzolisAndroutsosKourbelis (key battle)Karetsas
- TsimikasRetsosMavropanosSaliakas
- Tzolakis
Greece 4-4-2 · v Netherlands, 1 Oct
Who to watch
Augsburg, round two: Dimitrios Kourbelis against Florian Wirtz. Kourbelis has to stay between Wirtz and his back four for 90 minutes; Wirtz needs one clean turn.
Greece
Giorgos Masouras
Replaced Tzolis on Thu 1 Oct and scored.
- 2
- goals, Greece's last 10
Greece
Fotis Ioannidis
Started up front and scored the first against the Netherlands.
- 1
- goals, Greece's last 10
Goals in each team's last 10, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Every meeting we hold (3, back to 2012): Germany won in 2012 and 2024, Greece the latest, in Augsburg.
Result for Greece
- 27 Sep 2026Germany v GreeceNations League, Augsburg0–1W
- 7 Jun 2024Germany v GreeceFriendly, Mönchengladbach2–1L
- 22 Jun 2012Germany v GreeceEuro 20124–2L
Every meeting our database holds (three). OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Greece 1.1, Germany 2.2 (higher is better)
Germany score twice as many, 7 of them in one game against Curaçao.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Greece 1.2, Germany 0.9 (lower is better)
9 in ten to Greece's 12.
Goals scored, last five games: Greece 7.0, Germany 5.0 (higher is better)
The surprise: over the last five, Greece have outscored Germany.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have it as a draw, 1–1. Germany travel without Undav, Havertz or Musiala, so we do not see them scoring more than once against the side that kept them out in Augsburg. Greece scored in each of their three group games, and Toumba will be loud. But without Tzolis they lose their top scorer over the last ten, and Germany concede under a goal a game.
Where this goes wrong: if Wirtz finds room in front of Kourbelis this time, a Germany side that won six of their last ten could pull away. And if Greece play the first half the way they did against the Netherlands, a second win over Germany within a week is there for them. Should the draw fail, we lean towards Germany rather than Greece.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: who replaces Tzolis, both XIs about an hour before kick-off, then the full-time score.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 2 Oct 07:40 UTC; team news and match details from the HFF, kicker, the DFB, gazzetta.gr and UEFA.com.