- Kick-off
- Venue
- Euroborg, Groningen
Groningen win. Logged 16 Oct, 07:06 UTC, never edited.
What happened
Groningen 2–5 Ajax. We said Groningen win 2–1: Wrong result, 0 points.
- Julian Brandt scored on 27' and Aaron Bouwman on 37'. Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson pulled one back on 49', but Brandt's second on 60', from Owen Wijndal's pass, made it 3–1, and Jorthy Mokio scored on 69' and 75', the second from Davy Klaassen's pass. Thom van Bergen got Groningen's second on 83'. We said Tolu Arokodare v Marco Rente; neither scored. Our risk line named Brandt and Klaassen finding space: Brandt scored twice and Klaassen set one up.
- Groningen had 57% of the ball and 16 shots to 15, but Ajax had 11 shots on target to 5. What we got right: Groningen scored twice at home, and Ajax scored. Where we were wrong: the result; we expected one Ajax goal, and they scored five.
Before the match: our preview
In 30 seconds
- Ajax are fifth on 15 points, one ahead of Groningen; a home win lifts Groningen above them.
- Ajax lost 2–1 at Hajduk Split on Thu 15 Oct and have not won any of their last three games.
- Groningen beat Ajax here in March, and a tired Ajax will lose at the Euroborg again.
The story
These two have unfinished business. On Sat 7 Mar Groningen beat Ajax 3–1 at the Euroborg, Thom van Bergen scoring early and Oskar Zawada twice after the break. Eleven weeks later Ajax had the last word: a 2–0 win in the semi-final of the European play-offs, played in Volendam because the Johan Cruijff ArenA was booked for concerts, ended Groningen's first play-off run in five years. The game on Sun 18 Oct is Groningen's first at home for a month, and it is sold out.
Dick Lukkien's side come into it in good heart. They won 5–1 at Excelsior on Sun 11 Oct, with Marco Rente scoring twice from centre-back and Hans Hateboer making his first Groningen start since January 2017, and they have had a full week to prepare.
Ajax have had no such week. Míchel (Miguel Ángel Sánchez), the former Girona coach who replaced John Heitinga in the summer, took his side to Split for their Conference League debut on Thu 15 Oct and lost 2–1, both Hajduk goals following mistakes by Jofre Torrents, a 19-year-old left-back making his first start. That came after home draws with Excelsior and NEC, and Ajax have also lost the striker Kasper Dolberg to a cruciate ligament injury on international duty.
The table makes it simple. Ajax are fifth on 15 points, Groningen sixth on 14, with Twente fourth on 17. A Groningen win puts them two points above Ajax. This decides it: whether Ajax's legs, after the night in Split on Thu 15 Oct, can cope with a rested Groningen side in front of a full Euroborg.
Form
Unbeaten in four, and eight goals in the last two.
Two big wins in September, then three games without one.
The games, with scores
| Groningen | 11 Oct | at ExcelsiorED | W 5–1 |
| 18 Sep | v PEC ZwolleED | W 3–0 | |
| 12 Sep | at Go Ahead EaglesED | D 1–1 | |
| 6 Sep | v TwenteED | D 2–2 | |
| 28 Aug | v Fortuna SittardED | L 2–3 | |
| Ajax | 15 Oct | at Hajduk SplitECL | L 1–2 |
| 10 Oct | v NEC NijmegenED | D 1–1 | |
| 19 Sep | v ExcelsiorED | D 2–2 | |
| 15 Sep | v Willem IIED | W 5–1 | |
| 12 Sep | at Fortuna SittardED | W 5–1 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. ED = Eredivisie, ECL = Conference League. OddsIntel match database, read 15 Oct 2026.
Team news
Checked Thu 15 Oct 21:40 UTC: fcgroningen.nl, Voetbal International and NOS for Groningen; ajax.nl, Voetbal International and NOS for Ajax. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club for this game. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
The Ajax list matters most at full-back. With Gaaei and Caio Henrique both out, Míchel started Thilo Kehrer on the right and Torrents on the left in Split; Owen Wijndal, who travelled, is the other option on the left. Groningen's main scorers, Van Bergen and Brynjólfur Willumsson, both started at Excelsior.
Ajax 4-3-3 · at Hajduk Split, 15 Oct
- Ter Stegen
- KehrerBouwmanBaasTorrents
- KlaassenAmrabatBrandt
- TsygankovArokodare (key battle)Ouazane
- Willumsson
- OndrejkaVan BergenVan der Werff
- ClementDe Jonge
- HateboerRente (key battle)BlokzijlSchreuders
- Vaessen
Groningen 4-2-3-1 · at Excelsior, 11 Oct
Both last XIs on a pitch
Ajax 4-3-3 · at Hajduk Split, 15 Oct
- Ter Stegen
- KehrerBouwmanBaasTorrents
- KlaassenAmrabatBrandt
- TsygankovArokodare (key battle)Ouazane
- Willumsson
- OndrejkaVan BergenVan der Werff
- ClementDe Jonge
- HateboerRente (key battle)BlokzijlSchreuders
- Vaessen
Groningen 4-2-3-1 · at Excelsior, 11 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Tolu Arokodare against Marco Rente. Arokodare led the line in Split and is the striker Ajax build around. Rente started in the middle of Groningen's back four last time out. If he wins the balls played up to Arokodare, Ajax lose their way out of pressure; if Arokodare holds the ball up, Klaassen and Brandt arrive behind him.
Groningen
Thom van Bergen
Scored the first goal against Ajax at the Euroborg in March.
- 6
- goals, Groningen's last 10, friendlies included
Ajax
Tolu Arokodare
Ajax's centre-forward in Split, and their main goal threat.
- 7
- goals, Ajax's last 10
Ajax
Davy Klaassen
The captain scored Ajax's goal in Split and gets into the box from midfield.
- 6
- goals, Ajax's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions (Groningen's include two pre-season friendlies). OddsIntel match database, read 15 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Ajax have won three of the last five meetings.
All 5 meetings
Result for Groningen. The last five meetings. OddsIntel match database, read 15 Oct 2026; the May game was the European play-off semi-final (NOS).
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last five: Groningen 13, Ajax 14 (higher is better)
Almost level: both sides score, and both scored in all five.
Goals conceded, last five · fewer is better: Groningen 7, Ajax 7 (lower is better)
Level again. Neither defence has been hard to beat.
Conceded in, last five · fewer is better: Groningen 4, Ajax 5 (lower is better)
Groningen's one clean sheet came in their last home game, 3–0 against PEC Zwolle.
Last five games each, all competitive, to 15 Oct. OddsIntel match database, read 15 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Groningen winning 2–1. Over their last five games these sides are close to identical, so the difference is the week. Groningen have rested since Sun 11 Oct and play at home in front of a full stadium. Ajax kick off about 70 hours after their Conference League game, with five players injured. Arokodare should still get them a goal: Groningen conceded in both home games before their 3–0 against PEC Zwolle.
How we could be wrong. Ajax won 5–1 away at Fortuna Sittard in September and beat Groningen three times in the last five meetings; if Brandt and Klaassen find space behind Van Bergen, an Ajax win is very possible. The other way, if Ajax's legs go in the second half, a wider home win is likelier than a draw.
Updates
18 Oct, 19:42 CEST
Full time: Groningen 2–5 Ajax (Willumsson 49', Van Bergen 83'; Brandt 27', 60', Bouwman 37', Mokio 69', 75'). Our 2–1 call: wrong result. See What happened.
Next: nothing further; this match is finished.
Data note: results, scorers, the table, injuries and line-ups from our database, read 15 Oct 19:10 UTC, so the counts run to Groningen's game of 11 Oct and Ajax's of 15 Oct. Groningen's last ten include two pre-season friendlies. Team news and match details from fcgroningen.nl, ajax.nl, Voetbal International and NOS.
Our call was timestamped by an independent service before kick-off, Fri 16 Oct, 07:10 UTC.
How the timestamp works
Timestamped before kick-off by an independent service (DigiCert, RFC 3161), Fri 16 Oct, 07:10 UTC. The call file is the exact version that was timestamped. The file with our call and its timestamp token: call file · timestamp. Its fingerprint (sha256):
20a954669b96dbe8755dd05d386b15e715e2bc97d233eaf297dadea7e192eb46
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 27/42
- home win every time
- 19/42