Italy vs Türkiye: Pio Esposito against Merih Demiral, and Montella comes home
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group A · Matchday 4
Italy
20:45
Türkiye
- Kick-off
- Mon 5 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
- Referee
- Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Our call
Italy win
Our score: Italy 2–0 Türkiye
Pio Esposito against a Türkiye defence that has let in 8 goals in three group games, with Kökçü gone home.
Medium confidence: we'd expect Italy to win about half the time. Logged 4 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Türkiye have lost all three group games and sit bottom on 0 points. Their manager, Vincenzo Montella, is Italian, and he brings them to Bologna with his job questioned at home.
- Francesco Pio Esposito has 4 of Italy's 16 goals in their last ten, twice as many as anyone else in the side.
- Italy won 4–1 in Bursa on Mon 28 Sep, and Türkiye arrive weaker than they were that night.
The story
Vincenzo Montella has managed Türkiye since 2023, and on Mon 5 Oct he takes them into his own country at the bottom of the group. They lost 1–0 at home to France, 4–1 at home to Italy in Bursa, then 3–0 in Belgium on Fri 2 Oct, a game in which Merih Demiral missed an empty net. Orkun Kökçü has since gone home with a toe injury, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are not in the squad.
Roberto Mancini is in his second spell in charge of Italy, back after they missed the World Cup by losing a play-off to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties in March. His side lost 2–0 at home to Belgium in the opening game, then won in Bursa, and on Fri 2 Oct Alessandro Bastoni's equaliser earned a 1–1 in Paris.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 2Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 3Italy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4Türkiye | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
France play Belgium on the same evening. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
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An Italy win takes them to 7 points with two games left, level with France if Belgium win in Paris. Türkiye are on minus seven, and fourth place in a League A group means a relegation play-off at best.
We think this is settled where Italy's leading scorer meets Türkiye's centre-back Merih Demiral. Francesco Pio Esposito leads the line, Demiral has to hold a back four that keeps shipping goals, and Italy only need Esposito to win that duel once or twice.
Form
Italy
- Latest · 2 OctD1–1at FRANL
- 28 SepW4–1at TURNL
- 25 SepL0–2v BELNL
- 7 JunW1–0at GREFriendly
- 3 JunW1–0at LUXFriendly
One defeat in five. Before these, the World Cup play-off: 1–1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina on 31 Mar, lost 4–1 on penalties.
Türkiye
- Latest · 2 OctL0–3at BELNL
- 28 SepL1–4v ITANL
- 25 SepL0–1v FRANL
- 26 JunW3–2v USAWC
- 20 JunL0–1v PARWC
Four defeats in five; the one win was 3–2 against the USA at the World Cup.
Latest on the left. WC games were at neutral grounds; NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Team news
Italy
- OutNicolò Zaniolo: muscle problem, left the camp on 26 Sep.
- OutGiacomo Raspadori: taken off at half-time in Bursa, left the camp for treatment. Kean and the two Espositos remain.(reported)
Türkiye
- WithdrawnOrkun Kökçü: toe injury worsened after the Bursa game; sent back to his club. Türkiye lose a midfield passer.(reported)
- DoubtfulCan Uzun: missed the Belgium game after missing training with pain before it.(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Sat 3 Oct 17:30 CEST: the FIGC, ANSA and Corriere dello Sport for Italy; the TFF and Hürriyet for Türkiye. Confirmed = the federation or two outlets.
Kaan Ayhan scored one of Türkiye's goals in their last ten, but he is not in this Nations League squad; neither the TFF nor Hürriyet gives a reason. Montella has said that Türkiye miss Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız and Kökçü, Hürriyet reports, and that is a large part of their creative midfield.
Türkiye 4-4-2 · v Belgium, 2 Oct
- Çakır
- ÇelikDemiral (key battle)BardakcıKadıoğlu
- AydınElmazYüksekAktürkoğlu
- GülerB. A. Yılmaz
- KeanPio Esposito (key battle)S. Esposito
- FagioliTonaliFrattesi
- CalafioriBastoniScalviniKayode
- Donnarumma
Italy 4-3-3 · v France, 2 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Francesco Pio Esposito against Merih Demiral. Esposito started through the middle in Paris; Demiral is the centre-back who will meet him most often, and after the miss in Liège he owes Türkiye one.
Italy
Francesco Pio Esposito
Italy's leading scorer over their last ten games, twice the tally of anyone else.
- 4
- goals, Italy's last 10
Türkiye
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Started up front in Liège. A third of Türkiye's goals in their last ten are his.
- 4
- goals, Türkiye's last 10
Italy
Alessandro Bastoni
The centre-back scored the equaliser in Paris, his second goal in Italy's last ten.
- 2
- goals, Italy's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Italy are unbeaten in the four meetings we hold: three wins and a draw. The last time they met in Bologna, in June 2024, it finished 0–0.
Result for Italy
- 28 Sep 2026Türkiye v ItalyNations League, Bursa1–4W
- 4 Jun 2024Italy v TürkiyeFriendly, Bologna0–0D
- 29 Mar 2022Türkiye v ItalyFriendly, Konya2–3W
- 11 Jun 2021Türkiye v ItalyEuro, Rome0–3W
Every meeting we hold (4, back to 2021). OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored: Italy 16.0, Türkiye 12.0 (higher is better)
Italy score more, though not by much.
Goals conceded · fewer is better: Italy 9.0, Türkiye 14.0 (lower is better)
Türkiye let in more than they score.
Clean sheets: Italy 5.0, Türkiye 3.0 (higher is better)
All three of Türkiye's came before the World Cup.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 3 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Italy winning 2–0. Türkiye have scored once in three group games and arrive without Kökçü, with Can Uzun doubtful and with Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız not in the squad, so we struggle to see where their goals come from. Italy have kept half of their last ten games clean. We expect Pio Esposito to beat Demiral at least once and Italy to add a second.
Either side could spoil it. Italy lost 2–0 at home to Belgium on Fri 25 Sep and 4–1 at home to Norway in November 2025, so home is no fortress, and Barış Alper Yılmaz has scored a third of Türkiye's goals in their last ten. Equally, a Türkiye side this short of confidence could come apart again, as it did in Bursa. If Italy slip, a draw looks likelier to us than a Türkiye win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: news from either camp, the starting XIs about an hour before kick-off, then the final score.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 3 Oct 08:10 UTC; team news and match details from the FIGC, ANSA, Corriere dello Sport, UEFA.com, the TFF and Hürriyet.