Liverpool vs Brighton: can Iraola's Liverpool end Brighton's run of five clean sheets at Anfield?

The story#

Fabian Hürzeler's Brighton have not conceded a goal since Wed 16 Sep. They beat Arsenal 3–0, won at Sunderland, put five past Crystal Palace on Sun 18 Oct, when Diego Gómez scored from the halfway line, and then made eight changes for a goalless night at Jablonec in the Conference League on Thu 22 Oct. That draw cost them nothing but legs, and most of the side that started against Palace sat it out.

Andoni Iraola's Liverpool are harder to read. In his first season they have won seven of their last ten, but the defeat that stuck was a 3–0 home loss to Manchester City on Sun 11 Oct. Since then they have won three in a row and come back from 2–0 down to beat Villarreal 4–3 on Tue 20 Oct, with Rio Ngumoha setting up two of the goals. The cost came at Brentford: Szoboszlai went off with his hamstring again and Frimpong went off seven minutes after coming on, with a new injury.

The table gives Liverpool a reason to go for it. They are fifth on 12 points, behind Manchester City, Arsenal, Brighton and Chelsea, and a win would take them to 15, one behind Brighton. Brighton have the better goal difference by a distance, +18 to +1.

This decides it: whether Liverpool can score past that Brighton back four. Liverpool have scored in eight of their last ten, so they usually find one. The trouble is at the other end: they have conceded in seven of their last ten, and Brighton have scored 30 in theirs.

Form#

Team news#

Barcola, with three goals in Liverpool's last ten, was one of the six players rested against Villarreal. Diego Gómez, who scored against Palace, was one of the eight changes at Jablonec, and no injury has been reported. Both line-ups below are the rotated ones, so expect several changes on each side.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Georginio Rutter against Virgil van Dijk. Rutter led the line at Jablonec, the only striker in Brighton's 4-2-3-1; Van Dijk is the left of Liverpool's two centre-backs and the leader of their back four. If Van Dijk follows Rutter when he drops deep, Brighton's runners get the space behind him; if he stays put, Rutter can turn and run at him.

Head-to-head#

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

Our call: a draw, 1–1. Brighton are in better shape than Liverpool, but this fixture has gone with the home side in each of the last five meetings, and Liverpool won the last two at Anfield without conceding. We expect Liverpool to score, because they have only failed to do so twice in their last ten. We also expect Brighton to score, because Liverpool's defence has been breached in seven of those ten and most of Brighton's first team sat out the trip to Jablonec.

Where this could go wrong. Brighton played in Czechia on Thu 22 Oct, three days earlier, so if the travel tells late on, Liverpool can win it, as they did in the last two home meetings (3–0 and 2–0). If Szoboszlai's absence leaves Liverpool open in midfield, Brighton have the attack to take all three points at Anfield for the first time in the five meetings we show, and comfortably.

Updates#

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 22 Oct 19:10 UTC, so the counts run to Liverpool's game against Villarreal on 20 Oct and Brighton's at Jablonec on 22 Oct. Player goal counts cover only the goals where we hold the scorer, so they are minimums. Team news, positions and match details from liverpoolfc.com, brightonandhovealbion.com, Sky Sports, the Evening Standard and ESPN; the referee from liverpoolfc.com.