Netherlands vs Serbia: five defeats in a row, and Meerdink leads a line without Gakpo
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group B · Matchday 4
Netherlands
20:45
Serbia
- Kick-off
- Sun 4 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Our call
Netherlands win
Our score: Netherlands 2–1 Serbia
Mexx Meerdink leads a Dutch line missing Gakpo and Brobbey against a Serbia defence that let in two in every group game. Enough for a win, not a clean sheet.
Medium confidence: we'd expect Netherlands to win about half the time. Logged 3 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Serbia have conceded 21 goals in the nine games we hold since 13 Nov 2025, with no clean sheet.
- The Netherlands lack the injured Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey, yet are unbeaten over 90 minutes in eight games.
- Serbia concede two a game, which should be enough to cover the missing pair, just. A win takes the Netherlands to eight points; Serbia have none.
The story
Serbia have lost five games in a row, the last three of them in this group. Veljko Paunović's side went down 2–1 at home to Greece and then to the Netherlands, and lost 2–0 in Munich on Thu 1 Oct. Their last win came against Saudi Arabia on 31 Mar.
Xavier Hernández Creus, Xavi to everyone, took charge after the Netherlands went out of the World Cup to Morocco on penalties on 30 Jun. His first win came in Belgrade on Sun 27 Sep, and it was costly: Cody Gakpo went off soon after a 17th-minute challenge from Saša Lukić and has left the squad with an ankle injury, while Brian Brobbey had already gone home hurt after the 1–1 with Germany. Between them they scored 9 of the Netherlands' 19 goals in their last ten games.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Greece | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 2Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 3Germany | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4Serbia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Two points behind Greece, who host Germany on Sun 4 Oct; Serbia bottom. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
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In Thessaloniki on Thu 1 Oct the Dutch trailed 2–0 at half-time, and Xavi said afterwards that the poor first half was his fault (KNVB). Virgil van Dijk headed one back and Tijjani Reijnders levelled late on. Belgrade had been close too: Serbia drew level soon after half-time, NOS reported, before the Dutch won it. For Serbia the worry runs the other way: the bottom two fourth-placed sides across League A go straight down, and they have two games left after this one, in November.
The game turns on Mexx Meerdink, now the man in the middle of the Dutch front three, against a back five that cannot stop leaking. Meerdink scored both goals in Belgrade, one of them a penalty, NOS reported. Serbia let in two in each of their three group games, and Paunović's shape in Munich, five defenders with Luka Jović alone up front, did not change that.
Form
Netherlands
- Latest · 1 OctD2–2at GRENL
- 27 SepW2–1at SRBNL
- 24 SepD1–1v GERNL
- 30 JunD1–1v MARWC lost on pens 2–3
- 25 JunW3–1v TUNWC
Unbeaten over 90 minutes in eight games, since a 1–0 defeat to Algeria on 3 Jun.
Serbia
- Latest · 1 OctL0–2at GERNL
- 27 SepL1–2v NEDNL
- 24 SepL1–2v GRENL
- 5 JunL1–5at MEXFr
- 31 MayL0–3at CPVFr
Every one lost, with 14 goals against.
Latest on the left. NL = Nations League, WC = World Cup (neutral), Fr = friendly. Shoot-out kicks are not goals. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Team news & last XIs
Netherlands
- WithdrawnCody Gakpo: ankle injury from Belgrade, out for the rest of the window. The Dutch lose their top scorer: six in their last ten.
- WithdrawnBrian Brobbey: hurt against Germany on 24 Sep; Joshua Zirkzee replaced him. Meerdink keeps the central role.
- WithdrawnJan Paul van Hecke: foot injury from Belgrade. Jurriën Timber stays at centre-back.
- WithdrawnLutsharel Geertruida: left the camp injured before Belgrade (NOS). Less cover for Denzel Dumfries.(reported)
Serbia
- OutPetar Stanić: not in Paunović's squad for these four games; FSS gives no reason.(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Fri 2 Oct 17:10 CEST: KNVB (OnsOranje) and NOS Sport for the Netherlands. For Serbia, no other absences reported by FSS or UEFA.com. No suspension reported by either Dutch source.
Serbia 5-4-1 · at Germany, 1 Oct
- Petrović
- NedeljkovićErakovićGudeljBabićKostić
- ŽivkovićMaksimovićDžodićTadić
- Jović (key battle)
- van BommelMeerdinkSummerville
- Q. TimberTilVeerman
- van de Venvan Dijk (key battle)J. TimberDumfries
- Verbruggen
Netherlands 4-3-3 · at Greece, 1 Oct
Who to watch
At the other end: Virgil van Dijk against Luka Jović. If Van Dijk wins that one, a Serbia goal needs a set piece or a Dutch mistake.
Netherlands
Mexx Meerdink
Scored both goals in Belgrade, the first a penalty (NOS).
- 2
- goals, Netherlands' last 10
Serbia
Andrija Živković
Started on the right of midfield in Munich.
- 1
- goals, Serbia's 9 games held
Goals in the games we hold (Netherlands 10, Serbia 9), all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
The only meeting we hold: the Dutch win in Belgrade on Sun 27 Sep.
Result for Netherlands
- 27 Sep 2026Serbia v NetherlandsNations League, Belgrade1–2W
Every meeting our database holds (1, back to 2026). OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored: Netherlands 9.0, Serbia 3.0 (higher is better)
The Dutch scored in all five. Serbia drew a blank in two of theirs.
Goals conceded · fewer is better: Netherlands 6.0, Serbia 14.0 (lower is better)
Five of those came in a single friendly in Mexico.
Clean sheets: Netherlands 0.0, Serbia 0.0 (higher is better)
Neither side has kept one in any game we hold: ten for the Netherlands, nine for Serbia.
Last five games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have the Netherlands winning 2–1. Losing Gakpo and Brobbey hurts, but the Dutch have scored twice in each of their last two games, and Serbia have three goals in their last five, so we think two is enough. We do not see a home clean sheet: the Dutch have conceded in all of their last ten, and Jović needs only one clean look at goal against Van Dijk.
What could undo this call cuts both ways. A Dutch attack without Gakpo and Brobbey is thinner than it was in September, Serbia pushed them hard in Belgrade, and a 1–1 is easy to picture if Meerdink has a quiet night. Against that, a Serbia defence this porous could fold once the Dutch score first, and the margin could be wider. A Serbia win would be the bigger shock of the two.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: any late Dutch news, both XIs an hour or so before kick-off, then the final score.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 2 Oct 07:40 UTC; team news and match details from KNVB, NOS Sport, FSS and UEFA.com.