Portugal vs Norway: Haaland will score, but a patched-up Norway defence decides Porto
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group D · Matchday 4
Portugal
20:45
Norway
- Kick-off
- Sun 4 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Estádio do Dragão, Porto
- Referee
- Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Our call
Portugal win
Our score: Portugal 3–1 Norway
Norway's defence: Ryerson injured, Heggem suspended and a new goalkeeper. Haaland can score; Portugal should score more.
Medium confidence: we'd expect Portugal to win about half the time. Logged 3 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Norway arrive without Julian Ryerson (injured) and Torbjørn Heggem (suspended), two of the back four who started against Wales.
- Portugal have won all three games under Jorge Jesus, the last one after Cristiano Ronaldo walked out of the camp.
- Haaland will score at the Dragão, and Norway will still go home beaten.
The story
Erling Haaland has scored 10 of Norway's 19 goals in their last ten games. On Sun 4 Oct he faces Portugal again, a week after they won in Oslo, with Rúben Dias in his way. Ståle Solbakken, Norway's manager since 2021, travels without two of the back four who started against Wales on Thu 1 Oct: Julian Ryerson has gone home with a rib injury and Torbjørn Heggem is suspended. He is also changing his goalkeeper, with Egil Selvik in for Ørjan Nyland after Nyland's errors in Oslo.
Jorge Jesus has had a month in the job and three wins from three, and the last one came after his captain had gone. Ronaldo sat unused in Oslo, walked out of the camp, and Portugal played in Copenhagen the next day and won 4–2 anyway. The holders play in front of a full house: the federation says the Dragão is sold out.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 2Denmark | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 3Norway | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4Wales | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
Wales play Denmark on the same evening. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
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A Portugal win takes them to 12 points, six clear of anyone else with two games left. A Norway win would cut the gap to three. Norway began the group by beating Denmark 3–2 at home, then lost to Portugal and, on Thu 1 Oct, at Wales, where Heggem was sent off seconds after half-time.
We think Norway's back line settles this one. Haaland can punish anyone, but a Norway back four with two new faces and a new goalkeeper behind it has to cope with Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto and Bruno Fernandes running at it.
Form
Portugal
- Latest · 1 OctW4–2at DENNL
- 27 SepW2–1at NORNL
- 24 SepW1–0v WALNL
- 6 JulL0–1v ESPWC
- 2 JulW2–1v CROWC
Four wins in five; the one defeat was 0–1 to Spain at the World Cup.
Norway
- Latest · 1 OctL1–2at WALNL
- 27 SepL1–2v PORNL
- 24 SepW3–2v DENNL
- 11 JulL1–2v ENGWC aet
- 5 JulW2–1v BRAWC
Three defeats in five, the 1–2 World Cup exit to England after extra time among them.
Latest on the left. WC games were at neutral grounds; NL = Nations League; aet = after extra time. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Team news
Portugal
- WithdrawnCristiano Ronaldo: left the camp on Wed 30 Sep after being left unused on the bench in Oslo. Gonçalo Ramos leads the line.
- DoubtfulFrancisco Conceição: knock on his left leg in Oslo; did not start in Copenhagen. Pedro Neto covers the right.(reported)
Norway
- OutJulian Ryerson: rib injury, has left the camp (Solbakken confirmed). The right-back who would face Leão.
- OutTorbjørn Heggem: suspended after his red card against Wales. Ajer needs a new partner.
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Fri 2 Oct 17:15 CEST: A Bola, Record and the FPF for Portugal; NRK Sport and VG Sport for Norway. Confirmed = the federation or two outlets.
João Félix is not missing. He has three goals in Portugal's last ten, level with Gonçalo Ramos and Ronaldo, and scored in Oslo, but Jesus left him on the bench in Copenhagen for the first time and gave Rafael Leão his first start of the Jesus era. Félix came on late and scored the fourth, A Bola and UEFA.com report.
Norway 4-3-3 · v Wales, 1 Oct
- Nyland
- RyersonAjerHeggemMøller Wolfe
- ØdegaardBergeAursnes
- BobbHaaland (key battle)Schjelderup
- Ramos
- LeãoBruno FernandesNeto
- VitinhaRúben Neves
- Nuno MendesVeigaRúben Dias (key battle)Cancelo
- Diogo Costa
Portugal 4-2-3-1 · v Denmark, 1 Oct
Who to watch
Where Norway's hope lives: Rúben Dias against Erling Haaland. Dias does not have to shut Haaland out. He has to make sure one goal is all Norway get.
Portugal
Gonçalo Ramos
Led the line in Copenhagen, and with Ronaldo gone the striker's job looks his.
- 3
- goals, Portugal's last 10
Norway
Oscar Bobb
Scored against Wales and starts on the right, opposite Nuno Mendes.
- 2
- goals, Norway's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Portugal won 2–1 in Oslo on Sun 27 Sep, Félix and Ramos scoring.
Result for Portugal
- 27 Sep 2026Norway v PortugalNations League, Oslo1–2W
Every meeting we hold (1, back to 2026). OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored: Portugal 19.0, Norway 19.0 (higher is better)
Level; Norway lean on one striker.
Goals conceded · fewer is better: Portugal 8.0, Norway 18.0 (lower is better)
Norway let in more than twice as many.
Clean sheets: Portugal 3.0, Norway 0.0 (higher is better)
None for Norway in ten games.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Portugal winning 3–1. Norway have conceded in every one of their last ten games, and now they must rebuild the right side and the centre of their defence at once, with a change in goal as well. Portugal scored four in Copenhagen without Ronaldo, with Ramos leading the line and Bruno Fernandes creating, and the Dragão will be full. We expect Haaland to get one. We expect Portugal to get more.
Where we could be wrong runs both ways. Norway have scored in all ten of those games, so Portugal will not keep them out easily, and Haaland needs only one opening to drag it level at any point. Portugal, for their part, were held 0–0 by Colombia and 1–1 by DR Congo at the World Cup, so a flat night at home is possible. If Portugal slip, we see a draw before a Norway win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: news from either camp, the starting XIs about an hour before kick-off, then the final score.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 2 Oct 07:40 UTC; team news and match details from A Bola, Record, the FPF, NRK Sport and VG Sport.