- Kick-off
- Venue
- Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Our call: RB Leipzig 1–2 Manchester City · Manchester City win
Leipzig will score against a City defence that has conceded in six of its last ten, but Erling Haaland against Willi Orbán gets City the extra goal.
We'll mark this call after full time.
Logged 2 Nov, 09:41 UTC, never edited.
In 30 seconds
- RB Leipzig are 30th of 36 with three points; Manchester City are tenth with six. Only the top 24 stay in the competition.
- Manchester City have lost their last two games, to Aston Villa and Brighton.
- City's bad week ends in Leipzig, but only just.
The story
Enzo Maresca's Manchester City arrive in Leipzig after two league defeats in a row: 1–2 at Aston Villa on 24 Oct, then 0–1 at home to Brighton on Sat 31 Oct, when Yasin Ayari scored after 11 minutes and Bart Verbruggen made seven saves for Brighton's first win at the Etihad. "We are not scoring goals," Maresca said afterwards, according to Sky Sports. In Europe, City are tenth after a 2–4 home defeat by PSG on 14 Oct and a 5–1 win over AEK Athens six days later.
Martín Demichelis, who played 15 Champions League games for City, has the opposite problem. His RB Leipzig lost 1–4 at Como and 1–4 at Real Madrid either side of a 1–0 home win over PSV, and they sit 30th. At home they look like another team: Bundesliga.com counts nine Bundesliga home wins in a row, a club record, and their four home games since 10 Sep finished 5–0, 6–0, 1–0 and 4–0.
Leipzig come in on three straight wins, the last 2–0 at Schalke on 31 Oct, with a penalty from Antonio Nusa and a late goal from Rômulo. The worry is what happened when the opponents got better: 1–6 at Bayern München on 17 Oct and 1–4 in Madrid four days later.
This decides it: Erling Haaland against Willi Orbán, who started at centre-back for Leipzig on 31 Oct. Haaland has scored 10 of City's 27 goals in their last ten games and, by UEFA's count, 12 in eight games against Leipzig. Brighton kept him out on 31 Oct, so the question is whether Orbán can do the same.
How the Champions League 2026/27 works, with the full league-phase table
Form
Three wins in a row after two heavy away defeats.
One goal in the last two, eleven in the five.
The games, with scores
| RB Leipzig | 31 Oct | at Schalke 04BL | W 2–0 |
| 27 Oct | at Rot-Weiß EssenDFB | W 2–1 | |
| 24 Oct | v SV ElversbergBL | W 4–0 | |
| 21 Oct | at Real MadridUCL | L 1–4 | |
| 17 Oct | at Bayern MünchenBL | L 1–6 | |
| Manchester City | 31 Oct | v BrightonPL | L 0–1 |
| 24 Oct | at Aston VillaPL | L 1–2 | |
| 20 Oct | v AEK AthensUCL | W 5–1 | |
| 17 Oct | v IpswichPL | W 3–2 | |
| 14 Oct | v Paris Saint-GermainUCL | L 2–4 |
Latest first. Latest on the left. BL = Bundesliga, DFB = DFB-Pokal, UCL = Champions League, PL = Premier League. OddsIntel match database, read 1 Nov 2026.
Team news
Checked Sun 1 Nov 22:20 UTC: Bundesliga.com (its matchday-8 absences list of 30 Oct and the Schalke report), UEFA.com's match page, mancity.com (the Brighton preview), ESPN, and both clubs' 31 Oct team sheets on ESPN and Sky Sports. Reported = not yet confirmed by the club for this match. Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off; they go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Four of the leading scorers in the last ten games did not start on 31 Oct, and none is reported injured. Tidiam Gomis, joint top scorer in Leipzig's last ten with Christopher Nkunku, came on after 76 minutes at Schalke; Nkunku stayed on the bench as Demichelis made five changes. For City, Rayan Cherki came on after 55 minutes against Brighton and Phil Foden after 79.
Manchester City 4-3-3 · v Brighton, 31 Oct
- Donnarumma
- NunesKhusanovDiasGvardiol
- BouaddiFernándezAnderson
- NdiayeHaaland (key battle)Doku
- NusaRômuloGruda
- El AynaouiReitzBanzuzi
- RaumLukebaOrbán (key battle)Henrichs
- Vandevoordt
RB Leipzig 4-3-3 · v Schalke, 31 Oct
Who to watch
The duel to watch: Erling Haaland against Willi Orbán. Haaland led City's line against Brighton and was kept out; Orbán started in the middle of Leipzig's back four at Schalke, where Leipzig kept a clean sheet. If Orbán can stay touch-tight without giving away free kicks, Leipzig can take the game into the last 20 minutes level; if Haaland turns him once or twice, City will not need many chances.
Manchester City
Erling Haaland
City's top scorer in their last ten games, all competitions.
- 10
- goals, City's last 10
RB Leipzig
Antonio Nusa
Scored Leipzig's penalty at Schalke on 31 Oct.
- 3
- goals, Leipzig's last 10
RB Leipzig
Rômulo
Started up front for Leipzig on 31 Oct and scored late.
- 3
- goals, Leipzig's last 10
Goals in each side's last ten games, all competitions; every goal in both windows has a named scorer. OddsIntel match database, read 1 Nov 2026.
Head-to-head
We hold two meetings, both in the 2023/24 group stage, and City won both. UEFA.com counts six meetings in UEFA competition: City won four, Leipzig one.
Every meeting we hold (2, back to 2023). Result for RB Leipzig. Every meeting we hold (2, back to 2023). OddsIntel match database, read 1 Nov 2026; the count of six is UEFA.com's (31 Oct).
Numbers that matter
Goals scored, last ten: RB Leipzig 23, Manchester City 27 (higher is better)
City scored three or more in five of their ten; Leipzig did it three times.
Goals conceded, last ten · fewer is better: RB Leipzig 17, Manchester City 13 (lower is better)
Ten of Leipzig's 17 came in two games, at Bayern and at Real Madrid.
Clean sheets, last ten: RB Leipzig 5, Manchester City 4 (higher is better)
City kept theirs against Liverpool, Norwich, Manchester United and Porto; Leipzig's last came at Schalke on 31 Oct.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 1 Nov 2026.
Our call, explained
Our call: Manchester City win 2–1. We expect Leipzig to score, because City have conceded in six of their last ten and let in four at home to PSG. We expect City to score twice, because Leipzig's home clean sheets came against Hamburger SV, Frankfurt, PSV and Elversberg, and the two strongest sides they met away scored ten between them. Haaland against Orbán is where the second goal comes from, and City won both meetings we hold.
Where this could go wrong. City have scored once in their last two games; if Leipzig's home defence holds Haaland, a draw is likelier than a Leipzig win. The other way, City scored five three times in this run, and Leipzig let in six in Munich; an early City goal could make it a long night for Demichelis.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: Demichelis' and Maresca's press conferences on Tue 3 Nov, UEFA's choice of referee, and both confirmed team sheets about an hour before kick-off.
Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 1 Nov 17:40 UTC, so the counts include both sides' games on Sat 31 Oct. Every goal in both sides' last ten has a named scorer. Team news and match details from Bundesliga.com, UEFA.com, mancity.com, ESPN and Sky Sports.
Our calls so far
- calls right
- 30/50
- home win every time
- 23/50