Real Betis vs Barcelona: third-placed Betis can cut the leaders' gap to two points

The story#

Manuel Pellegrini, in charge at Betis since 2020, has his side third on 19 points, level with Atlético Madrid and five behind the leaders. They got there the hard way. On Wed 14 Oct, in the Champions League, Porto turned an early second-half deficit into a 2–1 lead at La Cartuja; Cucho Hernández came off the bench to equalise and Isco won it with a penalty six minutes from time. Just after the international break they put five past Osasuna, and in September they beat Real Madrid 1–0. The one defeat in their last nine was a 2–5 at Levante in August.

Hansi Flick's Barcelona have not dropped a point since the season started: ten games, ten wins. They went a goal down in Istanbul on Tue 13 Oct and still won 4–1 at Galatasaray, and they are top on 24 points from eight league games. They have done it without Raphinha lately. He scored 14 goals in their last ten, but a thigh problem picked up with Brazil has kept him out of the last two games, and the Barcelona daily Sport reports he is aiming for PSG on Tue 20 Oct instead.

This decides it: Lamine Yamal against Fran García. Yamal starts wide on the right, and with Raphinha doubtful more of the attack could run through him. Fran García is the left-back who has to stand up to him, and how much help he gets from Abde Ezzalzouli in front of him decides whether Betis can keep the game close. If he holds, Betis have goals in them: Ezzalzouli, Cucho Hernández, Isco and Marc Bartra have three each in their last nine games.

Form#

Team news#

Cucho Hernández, one of four Betis players level on three goals in their last nine, was not in the XI against Porto. That was Pellegrini's choice, not an injury: 365Scores reported that the staff ruled out any physical problem and preferred Troy Parrott's form. Cucho came on for Parrott in the 62nd minute and scored the equaliser twelve minutes later, so either of them could lead the line here. Barcelona's last XI in Istanbul had Fermín López, Pedri and Rodri in midfield, with Yamal, Dani Olmo and Gordon in front of them.

Who to watch#

The duel to watch: Lamine Yamal against Fran García. Yamal started on the right in Istanbul, with Olmo inside him and Gordon on the other wing. Fran García is the Betis left-back, and with Firpo injured he plays on. If Ezzalzouli has to track back to help, Betis lose their outlet on the break; if he does not, Fran García spends the evening alone with Barcelona's most dangerous winger.

Head-to-head#

Numbers that matter#

Our call, explained#

We have Barcelona winning 3–1. They have scored at least three goals in nine of their last ten games, and Yamal against Fran García is the duel Betis can least afford to lose. Betis will score: they have found the net in all nine games we hold this season, and Isco and Ezzalzouli give them a real threat. But they played Porto on Wed 14 Oct, a day after Barcelona's trip to Istanbul, and they had to come from behind to win it.

Where this goes wrong. Betis beat Real Madrid 1–0 at home in September, and the last time Barcelona came to Seville they let in three. If Pellegrini's midfield keeps the ball and Fran García holds his own, a draw is well within reach. The other way, Barcelona put seven past Racing Santander in September; if Betis tire after Porto, the margin could be bigger than two.

Updates#

Data note: results, scorers, the table and line-ups from our database, read 14 Oct 21:40 UTC, so the counts run to Barcelona's game of 13 Oct and Betis's of 14 Oct. We hold nine Betis games this season and ten for Barcelona. Team news and match details from realbetisbalompie.es, fcbarcelona.com, COPE, ESPN, 365Scores and Sport.