Spain vs Croatia: Yamal v Perišić will decide it in Seville
UEFA Nations League · Matchday 2
Spain
20:45
Croatia
- Kick-off
- Tue 29 Sep · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville
- Referee
- Serdar Gözübüyük
Our call
Spain to win
Our score: Spain 2–1 Croatia
Lamine Yamal against Ivan Perišić is where we think this is won, and Spain give opponents very little to shoot at. Croatia should score — they have in each of their last five games — but not twice.
High confidence: we'd expect Spain to win about two times in three. Logged 28 Sep, 16:00 CEST and never edited — see Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Yamal has 9 goals and 6 assists in his last 10 games — and Croatia's left-back is 37.
- Spain have won eight in a row, the World Cup final included, and allow 8 shots a game.
- Croatia scored and conceded in almost every game lately: 8 for, 8 against in their last five.
The story
Luka Modrić is 41 and still starting for Croatia — he scored in Prague on Saturday. Lamine Yamal is 19 and has nine goals and six assists in his last ten. On Tuesday they meet in Seville, in Spain's first home game since they beat Argentina in the World Cup final.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 2Croatia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 3England | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4Czechia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Whoever wins in Seville tops the group with four games left. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Spain won 3–2 at Wembley. Croatia won 2–1 in Prague in Slaven Bilić's first game back in charge; he replaced Zlatko Dalić after a World Cup that ended in the last 32 against Portugal. Luis de la Fuente's side is settled. Bilić's is still built around the old guard — Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Ivan Perišić, who at 37 now plays at left-back.
That is where we think it is decided. Perišić still attacks like the winger he was, and every time he goes forward he leaves the space Yamal lives in.
Form
Spain
- Latest · 26 SepW3–2at ENGNL
- 19 JulW1–0v ARGWC final aet
- 14 JulW2–0v FRAWC semi
- 10 JulW2–1v BELWC QF
- 6 JulW1–0v PORWC R16
Five wins — eight in a row, back to the World Cup group stage — 9 scored and 3 conceded. Spain haven't lost in 37 games, since a 1–0 friendly against Colombia in March 2024.
Croatia
- Latest · 26 SepW2–1at CZENL
- 2 JulL1–2v PORWC R32
- 27 JunW2–1v GHAWC group
- 23 JunW1–0v PANWC group
- 17 JunL2–4v ENGWC group
Three wins, two defeats, 8 scored and 8 conceded. They scored in all five — which is why we don't expect a Spain clean sheet.
Latest on the left. WC = World Cup (neutral venues), NL = Nations League, aet = after extra time. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Team news
Spain
- OutEric García — knee problem, left the squad — Robin Le Normand called up(reported)
- OutPedro Porro, Gavi, Borja Iglesias — injured for this international window(reported)
Croatia
- WithdrawnJosip Juranović, Martin Erlić — injured — Pongračić and Jakić called up; Stanišić stays at right-back(reported)
- DoubtfulMartin Baturina — fitness(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off (18:45 UK) — they'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Squad news: Playmakerstats (via OneFootball) and Sports Mole, 27–28 Sep 2026 — marked confirmed only once the federation (RFEF, HNS) or two independent outlets report it.
Croatia 4-2-3-1 · at Czechia, 26 Sep
- Livaković
- StanišićVuškovićGvardiolPerišić (key battle)
- ModrićKovačić
- L. SučićP. SučićIvanović
- Matanović
- Ferran
- N. WilliamsOlmoYamal (key battle)
- FabiánRodri
- CucurellaLaporteCubarsíPubill
- Unai Simón
Spain 4-2-3-1 · at England, 26 Sep
The key battle — and who else to watch
The key battle
Spain
Lamine Yamal
Croatia
Ivan Perišić
- 15
- goals + assists
- 4
- 35
- chances created
- 16
- 13
- tackles
- 19
Both players, last 10 games, all competitions
Yamal: scored at Wembley, and has fifteen goals and assists in ten games.
Perišić: Bilić's left-back at 37 — and Croatia's top chance creator on Saturday.
If Perišić stays home, Croatia lose their best source of chances. If he doesn't, Yamal gets the whole right flank. We think Bilić can't have it both ways.
Spain
Dani Olmo
The link between Rodri and the forwards. Set one up at Wembley.
- 4
- chances created v England
- 1
- assist v England
Croatia
Luka Modrić
Still sets Croatia's tempo at 41. If Rodri and Olmo give him time, Croatia can keep the ball.
- 1
- goal v Czechia
- 76
- minutes v Czechia
Key battle: last 10 games each, all competitions (club friendlies without player data aren't counted). Olmo and Modrić: Saturday's games. Chances created = passes that led to a shot. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Head-to-head
Spain have won three of the last five and Croatia one; the 2023 Nations League final finished 0–0 before Spain won the shootout. The last time Croatia played in Spain, they lost 6–0 in Elche.
Result for Spain
- 15 Jun 2024Spain v CroatiaEuro 2024, group3–0W
- 18 Jun 2023Croatia v SpainNations League final · Spain won 5–4 on penalties0–0D
- 28 Jun 2021Croatia v SpainEuro 2020, last 16 · after extra time (3–3 at 90 min)3–5W
- 15 Nov 2018Croatia v SpainNations League3–2L
- 11 Sep 2018Spain v CroatiaNations League, Elche6–0W
The last five meetings, whatever their age. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Numbers that matter
Shots per game: Spain 15.2, Croatia 11.8 (higher is better)
Spain create more, even across a run of World Cup knockout games.
Shots allowed per game · fewer is better: Spain 8.0, Croatia 12.0 (lower is better)
The gap behind our call: opponents get 8 shots a game against Spain and 12 against Croatia — 50% more.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Spain 0.6, Croatia 1.6 (lower is better)
Spain have conceded three goals in five games. Croatia have conceded eight.
Last five games each. Croatia's shot figures use four: the Panama game's stats are incomplete (3 shots recorded in the whole match) — counting it, Croatia allowed 9.8 shots a game. Goals use all five. OddsIntel match database, read 28 Sep 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Spain winning 2–1. They are better on all three numbers above, they are at home, and the chance we think decides it comes down their right, where Yamal meets a 37-year-old who would rather be attacking. Croatia will get a goal: they scored in all of their last five, and Modrić and Kovačić can still find a pass if they are given time.
The risk to this call is rotation, on both sides. Everyone played on Saturday. If de la Fuente rests Rodri or Yamal, Spain lose the control our numbers rely on; if Bilić rests Modrić, Croatia lose the player who can play through Spain's press. If we're wrong, we think a draw is likelier than a Croatia win.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: confirmed line-ups about an hour before kick-off, and other outlets' predictions once two or more have published.