Wales vs Denmark: second place is open, and Daniel James is Wales' best hope
UEFA Nations League · League A, Group D · Matchday 4
Wales
20:45
Denmark
- Kick-off
- Sun 4 Oct · 20:45 CEST · 19:45 UK
- Venue
- Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Our call
Denmark win
Our score: Wales 1–2 Denmark
Without Wilson and Brooks, Wales need Daniel James to beat Joakim Mæhle on the right. Denmark have won every meeting we hold and should score twice again.
Medium confidence: we'd expect Denmark to win about half the time. Logged 3 Oct, 09:30 CEST and never edited. See Updates.
In 30 seconds
- Portugal have nine points; Denmark, Norway and Wales have three each.
- Injured Harry Wilson and David Brooks scored five of Wales' 16 goals in their last ten.
- Without Wilson and Brooks, Wales have one real route to goal: Daniel James. Their first League A win came against ten men.
The story
Three teams sit on three points behind Portugal in Group D, and two of them meet at the Cardiff City Stadium on Sun 4 Oct. Only the top two go through to the quarter-finals in March, so whoever wins here goes to six points, level with or above Norway, who play Portugal the same evening. Craig Bellamy's Wales beat Norway 2–1 on Thu 1 Oct for their first win in League A. Brian Riemer's Denmark lost 4–2 at home to a Portugal side without Cristiano Ronaldo that same night.
| Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 2Denmark | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 3Norway | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4Wales | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
Portugal play Norway the same evening. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
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The two sides met in Copenhagen a week earlier, and Denmark won 2–0. Against Norway, Wales fell behind to Oscar Bobb after 11 minutes, Daniel James levelled before the break, and Neco Williams struck a free kick on 48 minutes, moments after Torbjørn Heggem was sent off, according to the FAW's match report. It was their first win of any kind since the 7–1 against North Macedonia in November 2025, and it came against ten men for almost all of the second half.
Both teams carry the same wound from March. Wales drew 1–1 at home with Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup play-offs and went out 4–2 on penalties. Denmark drew 1–1 in Czechia and lost 3–1 on penalties too. Neither went to the summer's tournament, and both now need this group to give the year a lift.
We think this one is settled down Wales' right. With Wilson and Brooks gone, James is the leading scorer left in Bellamy's squad, and he scored again on Thu 1 Oct. Opposite him stands Joakim Mæhle, Denmark's left-back. If Mæhle keeps James in front of him, Wales have little else to turn to. If James gets behind him, a Denmark defence that let in seven across its trip to Norway and its home game with Portugal can be got at.
Form
Wales
- Latest · 1 OctW2–1v NORNL
- 27 SepL0–2at DENNL
- 24 SepL0–1at PORNL
- 6 JunL1–2at ROUFriendly
- 2 JunD1–1v GHAFriendly
4 scored, 7 conceded. The Norway win ended six games without one.
Denmark
- Latest · 1 OctL2–4v PORNL
- 27 SepW2–0v WALNL
- 24 SepL2–3at NORNL
- 7 JunW2–1v UKRFriendly
- 3 JunD0–0at CODFriendly
8 scored, 8 conceded, and exactly two goals in each of the last four.
Latest on the left. NL = Nations League. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Team news
Wales
- OutDavid Brooks: left the camp injured before the Norway game. His two goals in the last ten go with him
- WithdrawnHarry Wilson: pulled out injured before the window. Wales lose their joint leading scorer of the last ten
- WithdrawnNathan Broadhead: pulled out with Wilson. Another recent scorer missing
Denmark
- BackGustav Isaksen: benched against Portugal for lack of match fitness, says DR Sporten, but should start: Denmark's three leading scorers could all play(reported)
Line-ups: confirmed about an hour before kick-off. They'll go under Updates. We don't publish guessed XIs.
Checked Fri 2 Oct 17:20 CEST: FAW, UEFA.com, DR Sporten and DBU. Neither DR Sporten nor DBU reported a Denmark absence.
Denmark 4-2-3-1 · v Portugal, 1 Oct
- Hermansen
- KristensenAndersenProvstgaardMæhle (key battle)
- HjulmandHøjbjerg
- DaghimDamsgaardDaramy
- Højlund
- Koumas
- ThomasCullenD. James (key battle)
- J. JamesAmpadu
- DasilvaDaviesCabangoN. Williams
- Ward
Wales 4-2-3-1 · v Norway, 1 Oct
Who to watch
Down Wales' right: Daniel James against Joakim Mæhle. If Mæhle stays with James, Wales need a goal from a set piece or an unlikely source.
Denmark
Mikkel Damsgaard
Denmark's leading scorer over their last ten, one ahead of Højlund and Isaksen.
- 5
- goals, Denmark's last 10
Wales
Neco Williams
Right-back, and scored the free kick that beat Norway. He shares James's flank.
- 1
- goals, Wales' last 10
Last 10 games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Head-to-head
Every meeting we hold (4, back to 2018) went Denmark's way. Wales scored once in the four; Denmark scored 10.
Result for Wales
- 27 Sep 2026Denmark v WalesNations League, Copenhagen2–0L
- 26 Jun 2021Wales v DenmarkEuro 2020, Amsterdam0–4L
- 16 Nov 2018Wales v DenmarkNations League1–2L
- 9 Sep 2018Denmark v WalesNations League, Aarhus2–0L
Every meeting our database holds, all settled in 90 minutes. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Numbers that matter
Goals scored per game: Wales 1.6, Denmark 2.0 (higher is better)
Seven of Wales' goals came in one game, against North Macedonia.
Goals conceded per game · fewer is better: Wales 1.4, Denmark 1.6 (lower is better)
Slightly in Wales' favour, close to level.
Clean sheets: Wales 1.0, Denmark 3.0 (higher is better)
Wales kept one, in Liechtenstein.
Last ten games each, all competitions. OddsIntel match database, read 2 Oct 2026.
Our call, explained
We have Denmark winning 2–1. They have drawn a blank only once in their last ten, and the Wales side they meet is missing three of the four men who scored most for Wales over their own last ten (Wilson, Brooks and Broadhead). We expect Wales to score at home, through James or from a dead ball as Williams did against Norway, and Denmark to score twice from a front line of Damsgaard, Højlund and, if he starts, Isaksen. They have scored exactly two in each of their last four games.
What would change it. Cardiff has just seen Wales come from behind for a first League A win, and that crowd can turn a tight game. A 1–1 is the result that worries us most. The other way, Denmark conceded four at home on Thu 1 Oct, and if Wales chase this they could leave room for a third Denmark goal. A Wales win would surprise us more than a draw.
Updates
Nothing has changed since we published. Next: the confirmed line-ups, due about an hour before kick-off, and the full-time result.
Data note: results, scorers and line-ups from our database (API-Football), read 2 Oct 07:40 UTC; team news and match details from the FAW, UEFA.com, DR Sporten and the DBU.