v1 · retired+2.1 %Could still be luck583 picks · 29 Sept – 18 Oct
Likely −6.9 % to +11.1 % (95% range). Past results, not a forecast.
Our price vs the closing price: −2.3% (436)
See v1's picksv2 · now+19.5 %Too early to call50 picks · since 19 Oct
Likely −12.3 % to +51.4 % (95% range). Too few picks to tell.
Our price vs the closing price: −1.6% (35)
Longest losing run: v2 3 picks (−€75) · v1 10 picks (−€250) · What the numbers mean
632 of 651 picks since 28 Sept sealed before kick-off · Verify one
How we count
€25 on every pick. Each version is counted on its own, from its own €0.
Counted at the best price we found when we posted it. Prices move; check yours before you bet.
A pick never leaves the record, won or lost. What the odds and the % mean
By market (v2)
6–23 picks each · not proof
| Market | Won–lost | Return |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | 12–11 | +8.3 % |
| Goals over/under (total goals) | 15–6 | +42.2 % |
| Asian handicap (goal head start) | 2–4 | −16.7 % |
All v2 picks
50 settled · 29 won · 21 lost · newest first
How a pick is chosen
We post only when a price is better than it should be
VIP v2 — since 19 October 2026.
The three VIP strategies with one stricter rule: a pick is posted only if its price still beats the latest price of the sharpest bookmaker (the one whose prices are hardest to beat). In its test run (8–18 October) our posted prices were on average about 6 % better than that bookmaker's final price before kick-off (126 of 159 picks had one to compare; 95 % range +4 % to +8 %, still early). We chose the rule after seeing earlier results, so this is a good sign, not proof or a promise of profit. The figure uses the best price we found, which may not be available at yours: check your bookmaker against each post's “worth it down to” price. Betting involves risk and can lose money. 18+ only.
The VIP v2 rule in plain words
- Match result: home or away wins from our model, posted in the last 3 hours before kick-off, at odds 1.30 to 6.00, when the price is at least 5 % better than our fair price. Counted at the best price we found when we posted.
- Goals over/under: a bookmaker's price beats the sharpest bookmaker's fair price by 5–15 % and the other bookmakers' average by 2 % or more, posted 15 minutes to 3 hours before kick-off. A very big bookmaker's price counts only if another bookmaker is within 3 % of it. The record uses that bookmaker's price.
- Asian handicap: a bookmaker's price beats the sharpest bookmaker's fair price on the same line by 10–15 %, posted at least 45 minutes before kick-off. Counted at the best price we found when we posted.
- On every pick: when we post, the price must still beat the sharpest bookmakers' latest prices (the main one's at most 30 minutes old). If we cannot check, there is no pick.
- No change before our 16 November check-in (30 November if too few picks have settled). Any change starts a new record, published before its first pick.